Crude Oil Breakdown Extends Toward 200-Day Moving Average at $74

Crude oil fell to $76.13 on Tuesday, extending a decline that accelerated after the 100-day moving average failed to hold support on Friday. The break took out an uptrend line and a higher swing low from mid-April at $81.94, putting the commodity on track to test the 200-day moving average near $74.24.

That zone carries extra weight because the 200-week moving average sits nearby at $75.44. Since the start of 2023, that weekly line has acted as both support and resistance, giving it more credibility than a single moving average alone. The alignment of the two indicators creates a confluence zone from roughly $74 to $75.50.

Tuesday's low marked a 36.2% decline from the March peak of $119.54 and exceeded the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $79.65. The first support zone was the higher swing low of $76.83 from March, which held briefly before giving way.

If the 200-day line breaks to the downside, the next target is the $70.49 area where a key bullish breakout occurred in early March. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance is nearby at $68.81, creating a support range from roughly $70.49 to $68.81. That would represent the maximum retracement currently anticipated.

Rallies from support could test the bottom of the symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern that triggered last week's downside break. The 100-day moving average at $88.37 and the triangle's lower boundary around $88.90 are the first significant resistance levels. Given the 100-day line's long-term nature, reclaiming it would be a necessary step before any sustained upside.

The 200-week moving average's track record since early 2023 makes the current zone one to watch. It was clearly recognized by the market as both support and resistance during that period, which gives the indicator added credibility when aligned with the same daily indicator.