Italy May CPI Confirms 3.2% Annual Rate on Energy Jump

Italy's final May CPI print matched the preliminary estimate, with headline inflation at 3.2% year-on-year, up from 2.3% in April. The acceleration was driven almost entirely by energy prices.

Non-regulated energy products rose 12.5% from a year ago, compared with 9.5% in April. Regulated energy products climbed 5.6%, up from 5.3% the prior month. The energy component alone added roughly 0.9 percentage points to the headline figure.

Core inflation – stripping out energy and fresh food – edged up to 1.7% from 1.6%. Goods price inflation accelerated to 3.4% from 3.1%, while services inflation rose to 2.8% from 2.4%. Food prices softened, coming in at 1.9% versus 2.3% in April.

The data reinforces the European Central Bank's view that the disinflation path is uneven, with energy base effects still distorting the headline. Italy's inflation profile remains above the eurozone average, though the core reading stays below the ECB's 2% target.

For the euro, the print does little to shift the rate outlook. Markets are pricing a July hold from the ECB after the June cut, and the Italy-specific inflation story has not been a primary driver of EUR/USD in recent months. The next data point for the pair is the U.S. May CPI release on Wednesday.