RBA June minutes showed the board is not ruling out further tightening, supporting AUD/USD above 0.6930. The pair now tests 0.6960 resistance after breaking the descending trendline.
Alpha Score of 37 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, weak quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals — score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's June meeting minutes, released Tuesday, show the board is not yet ready to rule out another rate increase. Members pointed to persistent excess demand and broad-based inflationary pressures across the economy. The door remains open for further tightening if needed, the minutes state.
The interest rate differential between Australia and the United States continues to support the Australian dollar. Markets have scaled back expectations for further Fed tightening over the past month, which has narrowed the gap between the two policy paths. The combination of a still-hawkish RBA and a more cautious Fed has helped underpin demand for the currency.
On the charts, AUD/USD has recovered from June lows near 0.6865. The pair broke above a descending trendline that had capped rallies since mid-June. That break signals the near-term downtrend is losing momentum, though the move has not yet been confirmed by a close above the 0.6960 resistance zone.
The pair now trades above the upper boundary of the current market profile at 0.6930. Below that level, the point of control sits at 0.6896, with the lower profile boundary at 0.6887. That zone could act as near-term support on any pullback. A deeper correction would target the June low at 0.6865.
The RSI reads 55, 51, and 53 on the three timeframes, with the moving averages broadly flat. That suggests the pair lacks strong momentum in either direction. The market is pausing, waiting for the next catalyst.
The 0.6960 area has been tested but not breached since the June selloff. A sustained move above that level would open the path toward 0.7000, a round number that also marked the ceiling in early June. A failure to hold 0.6930 would shift focus back to the 0.6895-0.6887 support zone.
The next RBA meeting is scheduled for August 6. Until then, the Aussie's direction will depend on the US data calendar, particularly the June nonfarm payrolls report due Friday. A weak print would reinforce the Fed-dovish, AUD-supportive narrative.
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