Oil Falls 4%, Gas Slides on Storage Build, Iran Truce Bets

WTI crude dropped 4% on Thursday, losing most of the week’s gains. Brent fell below $77. Natural gas slid after a larger-than-expected storage injection. The moves reflect two different catalysts – an inventory surplus for gas and a diplomatic bet on oil.

Why Oil Could Not Hold the Geopolitical Bid

Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East usually lifts crude. Iran moved 11 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, while other vessels avoided it. The U.S. attacked targets in Iran. Iran struck U.S. assets in Gulf states. Qatar and Pakistan offered to mediate.

Yet oil fell. Traders are betting the two sides will return to negotiations rather than close the Strait of Hormuz, the report said. President Trump earlier threatened a naval blockade of Iranian ports but did not enforce it. Iran would likely respond by blocking the Strait. Both countries prefer the waterway open, according to the same report.

WTI tested resistance at $74.50–$75.00 and reversed sharply. Support sits at $70.50–$71.00. A break below $70.50 opens the next floor at $67.00–$67.50.

Brent failed to hold $77.00 and is closing toward $76.00. If that level gives way, the next support zone is $72.00–$72.50. To regain upside, Brent needs to reclaim $77.00–$77.50, then $81.00–$81.50.

The failure of oil to hold gains despite active strikes is a bearish signal. It implies the market sees limited supply disruption risk. If mediation collapses, the same setup could reverse quickly, pushing WTI back toward $75.