Apple has until March 7 to open iOS to sideloading or face EU fines of up to 10% of global revenue. Bernstein sees a $1B-$2B App Store hit if forced.
Apple has until March 7 to satisfy the European Union's Digital Markets Act, a deadline that for the first time could force the iPhone maker to open its App Store to alternative marketplaces and sideloading. Non-compliance carries fines of up to 10% of global revenue, analysts at Bernstein said.
The DMA designates Apple (AAPL) profile as a gatekeeper for iOS and the App Store. The rules require Apple to let users install software from outside its store and to allow developers to route payments through third-party systems. Apple has pushed back, arguing that sideloading would weaken device security. Regulators in Brussels treat that argument as a screen for protecting the 30% commission on in-app purchases, people familiar with the commission's thinking said.
The European Commission is expected to decide in the weeks after the deadline whether Apple's compliance plan measures up. A finding of non-compliance would open an investigation that could end in a fine. Bernstein's analysts put the revenue impact of forced changes at $1 billion to $2 billion a year, money that would move to outside payment processors if developers stop using Apple's in-app purchase system. Apple shares traded near $182 in late action Wednesday, little changed.
Two earlier DMA deadlines, covering messaging interoperability and device access, passed without penalty. Neither obligation touched the App Store's revenue stream.
The law also lets the commission impose daily penalties while an investigation is open, up to 5% of average daily turnover. Alphabet and Amazon face similar duties as gatekeepers, though their core businesses depend less on app-store commissions.
Developers who have lobbied the commission for years see the deadline as a chance to stop paying the 30% fee on subscriptions and in-app purchases. An Apple spokeswoman declined to comment on the commission's timeline.
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