AlphaScala Weekly: Gold miners surge, NKE insiders buy $2.17M

Good morning,

Gold ran the tape again. Miners jumped 3.2% as financials led a broad rally, and Newmont, Hudbay and Kinross all cracked the top of the AlphaScala model with scores of 80, 80 and 79. Under the surface, CDS prices climbed for AI borrowers even as stocks printed records, and four Nike insiders put down a net $2.17M. The indexes couldn't agree on direction: SPY ticked up 0.48% while QQQ and small caps slipped. Here's what mattered.

The Week That Was

The week split the market down the middle. SPY closed at 778.57, up 0.48% on the week, while the Nasdaq proxy QQQ fell 0.65% to 751.27 and small-cap IWM dropped 1.57% to 278.94. Gold miners did the heavy lifting on the rally days, rising 3.2% with financials out front, and the metal's strength showed up directly in the AlphaScala model: Newmont (NEM) at 80, Hudbay (HBM) at 80 and Kinross (KGC) at 79 all ranked near the top. Flywire (FLYW) topped the board at 85.

The quieter story was in credit. CDS prices rose for AI borrowers even as equity indexes hit fresh records, a divergence worth sitting with. An 8.95% fixed-deposit rate out of the NBFC space flagged its own credit stress, and a 7.7 quake in Panama left loss estimates running past $1 billion.

Insiders leaned in where the model wasn't looking. Ten TSM insiders bought over 30 days for a net $45K, three Simon Property names added a net $139K, and the loudest cluster was Nike, where four insiders bought a net $2.17M. On the political tape, David Taylor disclosed purchases in Amgen and Home Depot, while Maria Elvira Salazar sold Brookfield Renewable and Cisco.

Markets this week

Indices

• IWM 278.94 ▼ -1.57% from 283.38
• QQQ 751.27 ▼ -0.65% from 756.20
• SPY 778.57 ▲ +0.48% from 774.83

Deal Flow

IPOs / Listings

• Citi Tops Global IPO Underwriting in 2023, Surpassing Goldman Sachs (Gurufocus) Citi tops 2023 IPO underwriting with SpaceX $86B deal. Dividend yield 1.97%, payout ratio 25% support income safety, but guru trimming and $23M insider sales signal caution.

Headline Roundup

Macro

• World Bank Raises East Asia Forecast; Vietnam ETF (VNM) Near Fair Value (Gurufocus) World Bank raised East Asia growth forecast to 4.5% for 2026, citing AI hardware demand. Vietnam outlook at 7.4%. VNM ETF trades near its GF Value of $16.55, with a GF Score of 74.

Stocks

• CRO Move to Rival Exposes Board Advisor Conflicts (Saastr) A CRO's move to a rival startup, and the public fight that followed, shows the risk when board advisors also hold executive roles at competing firms. Khosla Ventures' public…
• BA Unveils World's Largest Business-Class Cabin on A380 (BI) The 12-superjumbo makeover upgrades every cabin from suites to economy bedding; first deliveries were due mid-2026 and now arrive in the coming months.
• Why a Microsoft Engineer Left $200K for a Solo AI Bet (BI) A former Microsoft engineer resigned from a $200K role to build AI finance tool Treasury solo, funding it from savings and growing a social following to 30k.
• 8.95% FD Rate Flags NBFC Credit Risk Exposure (Mint) Muthoot Capital's 8.95% three-year FD tops the rate table, but issuer-specific credit and liquidity risks demand rating scrutiny for investors.
• Hershey's Credibility Push: Loved Brands Must Be Chosen Actively (Multichannelmerchant) At Advertising Week, Hershey's CMO warned legacy brands face a 'loved but not chosen' risk. The 90-brand portfolio relies on values-driven partnerships. Alpha Score 46.
• CDS Prices Rise for AI Borrowers Even as Stocks Hit Records (Financialpost) Oracle and SpaceX CDS prices jumped this week even as U.S. stocks set records, a sign the AI trade's debt build-out is getting harder to fund.
• AI Shopping Agents Force Retailers to Rethink SEO and Brand, H&M Says (Internetretailing) H&M's acting global SEO lead explains how AI agents are disintermediating brands, why GEO matters, and why brand trust drives AI search visibility. He speaks at CustomerX on Oct…
• GlobalData: Boots needs store revamps and health focus (Retailtimes) GlobalData says the Weston family should reinvest in Boots' pharmacy and modernise smaller stores, applying a Shoppers Drug Mart-style health model.
• Why critics are wrong about bank resolution plans (RISK) Critics want to scrap bank living wills after 2023 failures. But resolution plans gave regulators the tools to handle Credit Suisse and SVB without a repeat of 2008.
• Mousa Al-Mousa to Sell Royal Mall as Occupancy Hits 90% (Argaam) The group's CEO said the sale is part of a 2026-2028 strategy to redeploy capital into Jeddah Auto Park, logistics, and hotel projects, after mall occupancy hit 90%.
• Neighborhood Intelligence Scraps Fathom Deal, Keeps tZero (Retaildive) Neighborhood Intelligence retains tZero, scuttling its Fathom acquisition and a $130 million digital asset transfer. It also canceled F9 Brands last month.
• Vystar Forms R3ALM Operating Corp; Tokenization Platform Nears Live Launch (Manilatimes) Vystar Corporation completed formation of a new operating corporation for its R3ALM tokenization platform, appointed its joint board, and advanced the 22-module system toward live…

Forex / Commodities

• Hindalco, AluChem Scrap Specialty Alumina Deal on Extended Delays (BL) Hindalco and AluChem scrap specialty alumina deal with no penalty. HDFC Bank CEO, DLF sell-out, Ola pledge, Gland Pharma deal also in focus.
• Panama Quake Losses May Top $1 Billion After 7.7 Shock (Mint) Panama's strongest quake since 1951 hit Friday, forcing an airport evacuation and halting metro lines. Aftershocks above magnitude 4.8 continue.
• Gold Miners Surge 3.2% as Financials Lead Broad Rally (MW) Gold miners jumped 3.2% and financials rose 0.9% ahead of bank earnings. JPMorgan (Alpha Score 49) and Wells Fargo (46) report Tuesday. Humana surged 16.3%; Apple dropped 2.6%.
• U.S Gold Corp (NASDAQ:USAU) joins Terminal1 platform (Manilatimes) The gold explorer will use Terminal1's integrated shareholder intelligence and investor communications tools to replace fragmented IR systems, the company said Oct. 9.
• Kerala High Court FIR Puts CMRL at Center of Fraud Probe (BL) A Kerala High Court order registering an FIR over ED allegations directly exposes mineral sands processor CMRL to a criminal probe for alleged fraudulent payments.
• De Beers Taps Botswana Basket Weavers to Bolster Natural Diamond Branding (Manilatimes) De Beers backs Botswana master weaver Shakunona Parata at Homo Faber 2026, linking natural diamond provenance to craft traditions ahead of a Frieze Masters commission in October.
• BHP Divests Kambalda Nickel to Gold Fields as WA Suspension Drags (Raskmedia) BHP shares fell over 1% after it agreed to sell the Kambalda Nickel Concentrator and tenements to Gold Fields, as the miner continues its retreat from nickel amid a global…
• Halliburton Exits Falklands Sea Lion Project on Argentine Pressure (Gurufocus) Halliburton exits the Sea Lion oil project near the Falkland Islands after Argentine President Milei tightens sovereignty enforcement. The 1.7 billion-barrel field loses a key…

Smart Money

• Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL): SALE BEP
• Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL): SALE CSCO
• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE AAPL
• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE AMGN
• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE HD
• David J. Taylor (R-OH): SALE MPC
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)
• Top insider buying: TTD: insiders net +$143.45M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: CPNG: insiders net +$136.56M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: GME: insiders net +$21.56M bought (90d), 3 distinct buyers

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 85/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 85 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: NEM (Newmont Corporation), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: HBM (Hudbay Minerals Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• COT extreme: British Pound (GBP): large speculators net short 97,611 contracts, 36.7% of open interest
• COT extreme: Australian Dollar (AUD): large speculators net short 98,588 contracts, 30.0% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): large speculators net short 90,163 contracts, 24.3% of open interest

Back tomorrow before the bell.