AlphaScala Weekly: QQQ drops 4.9%, CRWV sinks 25%

Good morning,

Tech led the selloff this week, with the Nasdaq-tracking QQQ down 4.86% to 709.80 while the Dow's DIA squeaked out a 0.23% gain. CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 25% on debt worries that spread across the sector, and crude held its bid as supply concerns outweighed any relief in prices. Insiders leaned in anyway: four Nike (NKE) insiders bought a net $2.17M, and ten at TSMC (TSM) added shares. Gold miners also took three of the top four slots on the AlphaScala model. Here's what mattered.

The Week That Was

The split was the story. QQQ shed 4.86% to close at 709.80 and the small-cap IWM slid 2.68% to 270.44, while DIA edged up 0.23% to 519.10. SPY landed in between, off 1.91% at 763.25. The weakness clustered in anything tied to the AI capex trade, with CoreWeave (CRWV) down 25% after debt fears rippled through the group.

Insider tapes pointed the other way. Four Nike (NKE) insiders bought a net $2.17M over 30 days, ten at TSMC (TSM) added a net $45K, and three at Simon Property (SPG) put in $139K. On the model side, miners dominated: Newmont (NEM) and Hudbay (HBM) both carry an Alpha Score of 80/100, Kinross (KGC) sits at 79/100, and Flywire (FLYW) tops the board at 85/100.

In Washington disclosures, David J. Taylor sold Procter & Gamble (PG) and bought AT&T (T), Fifth Third (FITB) and RPM, while Rick Larsen disclosed a purchase of Analog Devices (ADI).

Markets this week

Indices

• QQQ 709.80 ▼ -4.86% from 746.04
• IWM 270.44 ▼ -2.68% from 277.90
• SPY 763.25 ▼ -1.91% from 778.10
• DIA 519.10 ▲ +0.23% from 517.91

Deal Flow

M&A

• EQT AB Acquires Stockbridge, Becomes Third-Largest Private Markets Firm (SA) EQT AB closed the Coller Capital deal and acquired Stockbridge. CEO Per Franzén said the firm is the only top-20 private markets firm without a credit platform.

IPOs / Listings

• Mynt Tests Southeast Asia's Appetite for Profitable Fintech (MW) Mynt, parent of Philippines' GCash, raised $971M in its IPO as Southeast Asian IPO market shifts toward larger, profitable issuers. Deloitte data shows average deal size surged…
• Anthropic's AI Copycat Crackdown Slows Revenue Ahead of IPO (BI) Anthropic's Q3 revenue hit $16.8B as a 5-7% distillation revenue line starts to shrink; a successful crackdown on AI copycats trims reported growth before a potential $1.5T IPO.

Debt

• Alcoa Q3 Profit Rises on Aluminum Output, $315M Sale (Gurufocus) Alcoa's Q3 net income hit $483M on $3.7B revenue, with aluminum output up 15k tons and a $315M asset sale agreed. The Alpha Score of 71 flags moderate risk as debt refinancing and…

Headline Roundup

Stocks

• Crude to extend gains as supply concerns outweigh relief: analysts (BL) Brent settled at $109.86 after touching $110; Indian crude futures rose 6.4% on the week. Analysts see further gains on supply concerns, not relief.
• Kerala HC Seeks Centre Stand on BitChat Blocking (BL) The Kerala High Court directed the Centre, Apple, and Google India to respond to a plea challenging the blocking of the Bluetooth-based messaging app BitChat.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) Sinks 25% After Debt Fears, Sector Selloff (Gurufocus) CoreWeave shares plunged over 25% on Oct. 17, 2026, as debt loads and thin margins hit the unprofitable AI cloud provider. Nvidia's 10% stake offers limited support.
• PepsiCo (PEP) Faces Risk as HHS Targets Ultra-Processed Foods (Gurufocus) HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. meets White House officials Oct. 17 to define ultra-processed foods. The push threatens PepsiCo's snack portfolio.
• BofA Turns Bullish on Salesforce, Lifts Target to $285 (Gurufocus) BofA flipped Salesforce to Buy and set a $285 target, citing its lead in enterprise AI. The stock trades 31% below GuruFocus's fair-value estimate.
• Walmart's youngest store manager: internal promotion in action (BI) Kiley Pulley became Walmart's youngest U.S. store manager at 22, rising from cashier in six years. Her path shows how internal promotion and mentorship build retail leadership.
• Nvidia comms team reshaped amid AI boom, turnover spikes (BI) Nvidia's communications department grew to 70-80 staffers but saw roughly 15 departures since 2025 as the AI chipmaker's public profile surged.
• CREA cuts 2026 home sales forecast to 444,530, down 5.2% (Moneysense) CREA cut its 2026 home sales forecast for the third time, now expecting 444,530 sales, down 5.2% from 2025, as higher fixed mortgage rates and a hawkish Bank of Canada crimp…
• US Army Europe Tests Typhon Long-Range Missile in First Live-Fire (BI) The Lockheed Martin-built Typhon system, already deployed in the Pacific, gets its first live-fire from Europe-based soldiers, adding long-range strike options for NATO.
• Woven Partners with Ottolenghi for Limited Edition Blended Scotch Whisky (Retailtimes) Woven and Ottolenghi launch a limited blended Scotch whisky inspired by Mediterranean and Middle Eastern flavours to celebrate the Edinburgh restaurant opening.
• Mr Kipling Christmas 2026 Range Targets Younger Shoppers (Retailtimes) Premier Foods' Mr Kipling line adds five new seasonal products for Christmas 2026 targeting under-45 buyers in a £307m cake category. Novelty tarts and new pack formats lead the…
• Waitrose launches spirits from its own farm's wheat (Retailtimes) Waitrose's Leckford Single Estate Gin and Vodka are the first spirits made from crops grown on a UK supermarket's own farm, distilled from wheat harvested in a single field in…

Forex / Commodities

• Electricity Bills Surge 40% in Five Years, Emerge as Election Risk (Fortune) Electricity rate hikes of $23.1B in 2026, heating oil up 74% YoY, and data center demand put utility costs at the center of midterm elections.
• Mosaic's 4.6% Yield Faces Test After Q2 Loss (Insidermonkey) Mosaic posted a Q2 net loss of $273M as sulfur costs weighed. The forward P/E of 22.6x implies a 4.4% earnings yield, leaving little room for error in the earnings recovery needed…
• India's tariff reprieve on Russian oil buys time, not certainty (BL) Waiver under SRIA allows Trump to reimpose duties; experts advise India to prepare for renewed pressure. India's Russian oil imports fell to 44% in August.
• Oakmark Select Q3: Paycom Surges, Meta Added, Ally Lags (SA) Oakmark Select Fund added Meta Platforms and highlighted Paycom's margin expansion in Q3 2026. Ally Financial weighed on returns as credit recovery lagged. Rocket Companies offers…
• CMC 10-K: $9.4B Revenue, $656M Profit, GF Value Shows 3.6% Upside (Gurufocus) CMC's fiscal 2026 revenue rose 20% to $9.39B, net income surged to $656M. The 10-K shows SG&A costs rising 26%, while GF Value pegs the stock 3.6% undervalued.
• Brent at $110 Exposes Cracks in Small-Cap Barnwell Industries (Gurufocus) Brent crude hit $110 as Middle East and Ukraine supply threats escalated. But for Barnwell Industries, a $13M energy name with negative margins and a GF Score of 29, higher oil…
• Talos Energy TALO: 4.7% Rally Leaves Stock 41% Above GF Value (Gurufocus) Talos Energy jumped 4.7% to $17.77, but GF Value of $12.57 signals 41% overvaluation. No insider buying and negative cash flow raise caution for energy stock.
• CRK Rises 3.7%: Perfect Valuation Score Mask Weak Growth, Finances (Gurufocus) CRK shares rose 3.7% to $14. Despite a GF Value estimate suggesting modest undervaluation, the GF Score reveals weak growth and financial strength. Insiders sold without any…
• BlackRock Tells Gold Miners to Cut Buybacks, Boost Output (Gurufocus) BlackRock's Evy Hambro pushes gold producers including Barrick (B) to shift from $12B in buybacks to new mine investment. Alpha Score 70.
• MTDR Jumps 7% as Energy Sector Rebounds (Gurufocus) Matador Resources rose 7% as energy rallied. Negative free cash flow and a distress-zone Altman Z-Score temper the outlook. Insider buying of $3.5M provides a contrasting signal.
• FMC Target Slashed to $5 by Jefferies, Alpha Score 24 (Gurufocus) Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander cut FMC's price target to $5 from $14, downgrading the stock to Hold. The company's Alpha Score of 24 points to a weak setup.
• India CNG Prices Rise as Oil Risk Premium Holds Above $105 (Mint) CNG prices jumped ₹2 in Chennai and Meerut on Friday as the Middle East risk premium kept Brent crude above $105 despite IEA supply moves.

Smart Money

• David J. Taylor (R-OH): SALE PG
• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE T
• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE FITB
• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE RPM
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): PURCHASE ADI
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): SALE FDX
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)
• Top insider buying: TTD: insiders net +$143.45M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: CPNG: insiders net +$136.56M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: GME: insiders net +$21.56M bought (90d), 3 distinct buyers

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 85/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 85 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: NEM (Newmont Corporation), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: HBM (Hudbay Minerals Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• COT extreme: British Pound (GBP): large speculators net short 106,964 contracts, 39.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): large speculators net short 47,001 contracts, 37.6% of open interest
• COT extreme: Australian Dollar (AUD): large speculators net short 117,299 contracts, 34.6% of open interest

Back tomorrow before the bell.