AlphaScala Weekly: Gold names top model, small caps lag 1.3%

Good morning,

The tape split hard by size this week. The Russell 2000 (IWM) dropped 1.26% to 281.97 while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) held green at 744.50, up 0.41%, with the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Dow (DIA) both slipping. The dollar firmed across the board, sterling off 0.92% to 1.32 and the Aussie down 1.32% to 0.7026. Gold miners ran the AlphaScala model, with Newmont (NEM) and Hudbay (HBM) both at 80 and Kinross (KGC) at 79. Nike insiders backed up the truck to the tune of $2.17M.

The Week That Was

Cash equities went two ways. Large-cap tech carried the QQQ to a 0.41% gain at 744.50, while smaller names got sold, the IWM off 1.26% to 281.97 and the DIA down 0.44%. The SPY finished a touch lower at 771.35. A stronger dollar sat underneath the move: EUR/USD slipped 0.63% to 1.14, GBP/USD fell 0.92% to 1.32, and the commodity currencies took the worst of it, with AUD/USD down 1.32% and NZD/USD off 0.89%. USD/JPY barely budged at 157.30.

The model tilted metals. Flywire (FLYW) topped the AlphaScala board at 85, but the names behind it were all gold and copper, Newmont (NEM) and Hudbay (HBM) at 80 and Kinross (KGC) at 79. Insider tapes told a mixed story: ten Taiwan Semi (TSM) insiders bought over 30 days for a net $45K, three Simon Property (SPG) insiders added $139K, and four Nike (NKE) insiders put down a net $2.17M.

On the disclosure side, Pete Sessions unloaded Apple (AAPL), AbbVie (ABBV), and Alphabet (GOOGL), while David J. Taylor picked up Procter & Gamble (PG) and Installed Building Products (IBP).

Markets this week

Indices

• IWM 281.97 ▼ -1.26% from 285.58
• DIA 517.49 ▼ -0.44% from 519.78
• QQQ 744.50 ▲ +0.41% from 741.47
• SPY 771.35 ▼ -0.28% from 773.50

FX

• AUD/USD 0.7026 ▼ -1.32% from 0.7119
• GBP/USD 1.32 ▼ -0.92% from 1.34
• USD/CHF 0.8286 ▲ +0.90% from 0.8212
• NZD/USD 0.5665 ▼ -0.89% from 0.5716
• USD/CAD 1.41 ▲ +0.77% from 1.40
• EUR/USD 1.14 ▼ -0.63% from 1.15
• EUR/GBP 0.8600 ▲ +0.28% from 0.8576

Deal Flow

IPOs / Listings

• Sollfege Smart Electronics IPO raises ₹21.78 cr for showroom push (BL) Kolkata-based Sollfege Smart Electronics raises the funds via a fresh issue of 39.60 lakh shares at ₹55 each, with BSE SME listing set for Oct 8.
• Anmol Industries files for ₹1,800 crore IPO, entirely offer for sale (BL) The biscuit maker's IPO is an OFS by promoter entity Baijnath Choudhary & Family Trust; no proceeds to the company. Family-pack sales contributed ₹485.5 crore in fiscal 2026.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Cracker Barrel Earnings Preview: EPS Seen Falling 77% as Revenue Slips (Gurufocus) Cracker Barrel reports Q4 earnings Sept 23 with EPS forecast down 77% to $0.17. GuruFocus flags a 42% dividend cut over three years and weak financial strength.

Macro

• Swiss National Bank holds at 0% as hike bets build (CNBC) Switzerland's central bank held rates at 0% with inflation at 0.8%, while traders price a 90% chance the SNB hikes by early 2027. UBS sees an earlier move.

Stocks

• Gogoro brings battery-swap stations to Vietnam, taking on VinFast (E) Gogoro's battery-swap cabinets appear in HCMC as its Castrol JV targets Vietnam's e-scooter market, competing with VinFast's 45,000 cabinets. A Q4 scooter launch is planned.
• Technical Outlook for Tata Chemicals, CPCL, DMart, Shakti Pumps (BL) Tech Trail flags downside risk in Tata Chemicals and Shakti Pumps; CPCL can target ₹1,850 and DMart ₹4,600–₹4,800, per the column's technical view.
• White House blocks CNN from traveling with Trump on Air Force One (BI) White House blocks CNN from Air Force One travel after judge ordered access restored. The trip to Tennessee will lack independent TV coverage as the dispute continues.
• Maharashtra declares 265 talukas drought-hit; relief package announced (Mint) Maharashtra declares 74% of state drought-hit; relief includes loan restructuring, power concessions. Opposition says declaration delayed. Damage assessment underway.
• 8th Pay Commission: ₹18 lakh arrears possible with 24-month delay (Mint) A Level 8 employee could receive nearly ₹18 lakh in arrears if implementation is delayed by 24 months with a 2.57 fitment factor, similar to the 7th Pay Commission.
• Templeton's Rajasa Stays Constructive on India, Flags Permanent Volatility (Mint) Rajasa K. of Templeton Global Investments says sustained crude above $100 is a concern, while India's structural growth pillars remain intact. She sees opportunity in…
• Oracle Invokes Force Majeure on New Mexico Data Centre Project (BL) Oracle sent a force majeure notice to Blue Owl over Project Jupiter, seeking to delay payments if the 2.45 GW data centre is delayed. The project faces permit setbacks and debt…
• Paychex Trades 27.7% Below GF Value Ahead of Q1 Print (Gurufocus) Paychex reports Sept. 23 with EPS seen at $1.32, up 8.2% year over year. A 3.96% yield and an 80% payout ratio put dividend coverage in focus.
• InnovAge PE Selloff at $9.25 Triggers GF Value Overvaluation Flag (Gurufocus) Apax, Welsh Carson sell 10M INNV shares at $9.25, 57% above GuruFocus intrinsic estimate. Insider selling adds caution as offering closes Sept. 24.
• BNP Paribas Raises Amphenol Target to $110, Cites AI Demand (Gurufocus) BNP Paribas lifted its APH target to $110, citing AI interconnects. The stock trades at a 35% discount to that target. Alpha Score: 59 (Moderate).
• TD Cowen Stays at $22 Target for KHC, Alpha Score 51 (Gurufocus) TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow reaffirmed Hold on KHC with a $22 target. Shares trade above that at $24.34. Alpha Score 51 reflects mixed consumer staples fundamentals.
• HDFC Bank stock flat at ₹743 ahead of Oct. 17 Q2 results (BL) HDFC Bank shares held flat at ₹743.40 on Tuesday as the market awaited Q2 results due October 17. The stock is down 25% year to date.

Forex / Commodities

• CSG N.V.: Czech Defense Play With 50%+ Upside on Backlog, 9% Yield (SA) CSG N.V. raised FY25 revenue guidance to €3.5B after H1 revenue doubled to €1.8B. The Czech defense group's order backlog hit €8.8B, covering 2.5 years of production at current…
• GoldHaven Hits New Skarn at Kuhn, Drilling Moves to Pad B (Manilatimes) GoldHaven extended hole GOH26-04 after core observations, hitting a new skarn zone with ~145m drill length (est. true thickness 40-45m). Drilling continues from Pad B at the Kuhn…
• Oil CEOs Fight Diesel Export Ban as CVX Trades Above Value (Gurufocus) Chevron CEO Mike Wirth leads industry push against Trump's diesel export ban threat. CVX trades 24.9% above GF Value with Alpha Score 55 and significant insider selling.
• Indonesia’s Rupiah Intervention Hits Gold, Oil Markets (Gurufocus) Indonesia’s central bank intervened after the rupiah fell 0.6% to a three-month low. The move highlights how rising oil prices and US yields squeeze commodity-importing economies,…
• KRP Controller Sells 1,700 Units; Insider Buys at Zero (Gurufocus) KRP's controller sold 1,700 units for about $24,300, one of four insider sells this year against zero buys. GuruFocus's model still calls the stock Fairly Valued.
• Diesel Export Ban Faces Industry Backlash as API Warns of Disruption (Gurufocus) Trump's proposed diesel export ban drew immediate fire from API and major refiners, who said it would raise prices and deepen a global refining crisis.
• AMR Slumps 4.3% as GuruFocus Valuation Flags Overvaluation (Gurufocus) Alpha Metallurgical Resources fell 4.3% as GuruFocus's intrinsic value estimate of $164.71 suggests the stock is 9.5% overvalued. Insider buying offers a counter signal.
• Enerflex Ltd Posts 3.2% Gain; GF Value Signals 183% Overvaluation (Gurufocus) Enerflex shares rose 3.2% but GF Value flags 183% overvaluation. Profitability and growth ranks are strong at 8/10, while valuation sits at 1/10, a caution for energy services…
• Starboard Value Presses Knife River on Margins or a Sale (Gurufocus) Starboard Value took a Knife River stake on Sept. 23, pushing margin gains or a sale. GuruFocus pegs the stock 42.5% below its intrinsic value.
• Vista Gold (VGZ) Sale: Can Artemis Fund Mt Todd Mine? (Insidermonkey) Vista Gold agrees to Artemis Gold acquisition. Shareholders get 5% stake. Mt Todd development depends on Blackwater cash flow. Deal closes Jan 2027.
• Greenland Security Pact Reshapes Rare Earth Supply Race (Manilatimes) Trump's Greenland security pact, which blocks adversary investment in critical minerals, sent Greenland-linked miners surging. Greenland Mines doubled its Sarfartoq footprint and…
• Nucor Q3 Guidance Misses Street as Costs Offset Stronger Steel Prices (Insidermonkey) Nucor's Q3 guidance of $5.55-$5.65 per share misses Street at $6.20, as higher costs and weak raw materials offset stronger steel prices.

Smart Money

• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE AAPL
• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE ABBV
• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE GOOGL
• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE PG
• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE IBP
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE ETN
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)
• Top insider buying: TTD: insiders net +$143.45M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: CPNG: insiders net +$136.56M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: GME: insiders net +$21.56M bought (90d), 3 distinct buyers

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 85/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 85 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: NEM (Newmont Corporation), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: HBM (Hudbay Minerals Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• COT extreme: British Pound (GBP): large speculators net short 82,568 contracts, 33.7% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): large speculators net long 75,167 contracts, 28.3% of open interest
• COT extreme: Swiss Franc (CHF): large speculators net short 26,752 contracts, 20.0% of open interest

Back tomorrow before the bell.