AlphaScala Weekly: Gold tops $4,380, small caps break lower

Good morning,

Gold pushed to $4,380 and bitcoin reclaimed $81K while the Russell 2000 slid, a split that left the tape looking anything but uniform. Ether led the majors at +4.50%, the QQQ tacked on 1.73%, and the DIA dropped 1.64% as the dollar firmed against the yen to 156.88. Insiders piled into Nike, with four buyers netting $2.17M over 90 days, and the AlphaScala model kept gold miners near the top, Newmont at 80 and Kinross at 79. Here's what mattered.

The Week That Was

The week broke along size and safety lines. Large-cap growth and gold gained ground, with the QQQ up 1.73% and XAU/USD adding 1.90% to $4,380.14, while the DIA fell 1.64% and the IWM slipped 1.32%. The SPY barely moved, closing up 0.11% at 761.69, a flat print that masked the rotation underneath. Ether outran bitcoin, rising 4.50% to 2,628.99 against BTC's 3.64% to 81,034.56.

Currencies leaned the dollar's way. USD/JPY climbed 1.64% to 156.88, the largest FX move on the board, with the euro off 0.57% and sterling down 0.80% to 1.34. The kiwi was the weakest of the majors at -0.98%.

Gold's strength showed up in the model and the tape. Newmont carried an Alpha Score of 80, Hudbay Minerals also 80, and Kinross Gold 79, all near the top of AlphaScala's ranking, with Flywire leading the whole list at 85. On the insider side, Nike drew four buyers netting $2.17M over the trailing 90 days, and ten insiders bought TSM, though the net came to just $45K.

Markets this week

Indices

• QQQ 721.45 ▲ +1.73% from 709.18
• DIA 515.88 ▼ -1.64% from 524.49
• IWM 284.10 ▼ -1.32% from 287.91
• SPY 761.69 · +0.11% from 760.88

Crypto

• ETH/USD 2,628.99 ▲ +4.50% from 2,515.75
• BTC/USD 81,034.56 ▲ +3.64% from 78,189.21

Commodities

• XAU/USD 4,380.14 ▲ +1.90% from 4,298.35

FX

• USD/JPY 156.88 ▲ +1.64% from 154.34
• NZD/USD 0.5722 ▼ -0.98% from 0.5779
• GBP/USD 1.34 ▼ -0.80% from 1.35
• USD/CHF 0.8231 ▲ +0.69% from 0.8174
• USD/CAD 1.40 ▲ +0.59% from 1.39
• EUR/USD 1.15 ▼ -0.57% from 1.16
• EUR/GBP 0.8576 ▲ +0.24% from 0.8556
• AUD/USD 0.7126 ▼ -0.21% from 0.7140

Deal Flow

M&A

• Davidson Kempner Discloses 1.8% DCC Stake in Takeover Code Filing (Manilatimes) Davidson Kempner Capital Management disclosed a 1.77% stake in DCC PLC, the Irish sales and marketing services group, in a Rule 8.3 filing. The hedge fund holds 1,753,830 shares…

IPOs / Listings

• Intel's Altera IPO Filing Flags 209% Overvaluation Risk (Gurufocus) Intel's confidential IPO filing for Altera comes as GuruFocus GF Value labels the stock 209% overvalued, despite insider buying and a GF Score of 66.
• Auto Parts Maker Victura Taps Rothschild for $300-400M IPO (Mint) Victura Group hires Rothschild for IPO that could raise $300-400M, joining a busy year for Indian auto component listings. Revenue rose 13% to ₹3,285 crore in FY25.

Restructuring

• Safqah Capital eyes Saudi listing with SAR 5B in financing (Argaam) Safqah Capital CEO Abdullah Alsubaie said the company aims to list on Tadawul after reaching nearly SAR 5 billion in financing volume and a 0.07% default rate.

Headline Roundup

Stocks

• Floods Kill Three in Northern Vietnam as Crops, Rail Hit (Mint) Heavy rains since Sept. 14 have killed three, flooded 16,000 houses, and damaged 22,000 hectares of crops in Vietnam. Five more storms are expected this year.
• Gold above $4,310 after Fed hike; Indian 24K at ₹1.53 lakh (Mint) Gold rose above $4,310 an ounce after the Fed's 25bp hike. Indian 24K gold at ₹1,53,600/10gm, up 39% YoY; silver up 85%. Check city-wise rates.
• India Corporate News: Motilal Oswal Upgrade, Infosys Expansion (BL) Motilal Oswal's rating upgraded to IND AA+, Infosys opens new block in Indore, Mazagon Dock MoU for shipyard, Granules India converts warrants, and more corporate announcements.
• Sensex, Nifty hold midday gains; IT lags as metals, FMCG rally (BL) Equity benchmarks held gains at midday Wednesday as IT stocks reversed Tuesday's outperformance while metals, FMCG and insurance counters supported. FOMC decision due later.
• BlackRock Overweight SPY as GF Value Flags 12% Premium (Gurufocus) BlackRock stays overweight U.S. equities including SPY, arguing profit revisions offset higher rates and oil. SPY trades at a 12% premium to its estimated intrinsic value with a…
• Equal-weight Nifty funds beat benchmarks in 2026's flat market (Mint) Equal-weight Nifty funds returned 2.7% to 15% over six months as the cap-weighted Nifty 50 fell. Long-run data shows consistent outperformance in cycles, analysts said.
• OKA profits triple as retailer's turnaround takes hold (Retailgazette) OKA's adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to £5.3 million in the year to June, with sales up 25 per cent to £46.1 million following its 2024 restructuring.
• Dreams sponsorship targets 70% reach at lower cost, Moore says (Retailgazette) Dreams' 12-month sponsorship deal with Channel 4 and UKTV targets audiences reaching over 70% at lower cost than traditional airtime, marketing director says.
• Moving to Valencia changed one American's view of the American dream (BI) A North Carolina man moved to Spain in 2018 and never looked back. Lower cost of living, universal healthcare, and a walkable city reshaped his priorities.
• A Camping Trip That Ended Early, and a Second Try That Worked (BI) A family camping trip near the Boundary Waters ended early after insect bites and heat made the second night unbearable. A second, better-prepared attempt succeeded.
• Bitcoin Bucks September Slump, Holds Near $78K (Gurufocus) Bitcoin fell just 1.5% in September, on track for its first quarterly gain in a year, as a stronger dollar and stalled crypto legislation failed to trigger a selloff. GF Score…
• UBS: 8% of Companies Have Large AI Deployments; Picks Amazon, TI (Gurufocus) UBS highlights Amazon and Texas Instruments as AI plays after a survey found only 8% of firms have large-scale AI deployments.

Forex / Commodities

• Anson Resources Clears Environmental Hurdle for Yellow Cat Drilling (Smallcaps) Anson Resources completed environmental surveys at its Yellow Cat uranium-vanadium project, clearing a permitting step for Phase 2 drilling aimed at a maiden JORC resource…
• Central Petroleum Lifts FY26 Revenue as Drilling Advances at Palm Valley (Smallcaps) Central Petroleum lifts FY26 revenue to $44.7m as Palm Valley PV14 drilling advances; multi-year gas contracts boost cash flow. First gas sales targeted October 2026.
• NevGold Hits 1.06 g/t Oxide Gold Outside Pit Shell at Limousine Butte (Equedia) New assays from NevGold's 2026 program show oxide gold at roughly three times the grade of its maiden resource, both outside the pit shell and inside blocks once classified as…
• From $1.27M to $3.63M: The Capital Range for $10,600 Monthly Income (Yahoo) Generating $10,600 a month from investments requires between $1.27M at 10% yield and $3.63M at 3.5% yield, with dividend growers like ABBV and CVX offering rising income.
• ReTo Eco-Solutions $15M Offering: Dilution, Warrants, Risks (Manilatimes) ReTo Eco-Solutions priced a $15M direct offering at $1.50/share with warrants at $2.75, featuring a zero-cash exercise that could add up to 90 million shares. Close is Sept. 18.
• Wheaton Precious Metals: Inside the Streaming Machine (SA) Wheaton's exec team detailed its capital-allocation framework, streaming-contract mechanics, and growth pipeline at the 2026 Investor Day. CEO Hodaly said the company screens over…
• Newcore Gold Hits 2.59 g/t Over 69 Metres at Ghana's Enchi Project (Manilatimes) Newcore Gold reported one of the widest and highest grade-thickness intercepts at its Boin deposit in Ghana: 2.59 g/t gold over 69 metres, including 6.41 g/t over 24 metres.
• Mount Ridley Hits 91.8% Scandium Recovery at Half Reagent Dose (Smallcaps) Mount Ridley Mines (ASX: MRD) achieved 91.8% scandium recovery in Selectro Test 3 using half the reagent dose, with HREE ~84% and LREE ~77% at Grass Patch.
• Cielo Taps ex-Pembina COO Andersen as Chair to Lead Project Push (Manilatimes) Harry Andersen, former Pembina COO and Jordan Cove LNG lead, takes the chair at Cielo as the clean fuels developer builds out a management team for its Project Nahoonai and other…
• Corteva Bets on Gene Editing, Rules Out M&A at Investor Day (SA) CEO Charles Magro told analysts the crop-science firm will reinvest in its own pipeline rather than chase scale, targeting 2027 EBITDA margins above 24%.
• EPA's Coal-Friendly Rule Change Lifts BTU Prospects, Losses Linger (Gurufocus) EPA's September 15 announcement to revoke power plant greenhouse gas rules could boost coal demand. Peabody Energy (BTU) remains unprofitable with negative cash flow, insider…
• Keyera Dividend Payout Ratio Hits 1.42 as Growth Slows (Gurufocus) Keyera Corp pays $0.40 dividend on Sept. 29, but a payout ratio of 1.42 signals earnings don't cover the distribution. Profitability rank 8/10, yet revenue fell 2.10% annually…

Smart Money

• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE PG
• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE IBP
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE ETN
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): SALE NKE
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE PWR
• David J. Taylor (R-OH): PURCHASE AEP
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)
• Top insider buying: TTD: insiders net +$143.45M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: CPNG: insiders net +$136.56M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: GME: insiders net +$21.56M bought (90d), 3 distinct buyers

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 85/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 85 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: NEM (Newmont Corporation), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: HBM (Hudbay Minerals Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): large speculators net long 87,782 contracts, 27.5% of open interest
• COT extreme: Japanese Yen (JPY): large speculators net long 120,359 contracts, 22.2% of open interest
• COT extreme: British Pound (GBP): large speculators net short 58,715 contracts, 18.7% of open interest

Back tomorrow before the bell.