AlphaScala Daily: NKE cluster buy, Canada CPI at 8:30

Good morning.

Crypto's leading the tape, with ETH up 1.5% to $1,904 and BTC back above $63.6K. The louder read comes from the signal tape: four Nike insiders bought a net $2.17M over the past 30 days, the biggest cluster of the session, while FLYW tops the AlphaScala model at 85 and KGC sits third at 79 with gold near $4,394. Watch the clock at 8:30 for Canada's trimmed and median CPI, the day's one real timing risk on a thin calendar. On the Hill, Kevin Hern sold CMCSA and Michael Rulli dumped CCI. Here's what matters.

Markets

• EUR/USD 1.16 ▲ +0.22% (EUR)
• XAU/USD 4,394.01 ▲ +0.42% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,904.45 ▲ +1.52% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 63,662.95 ▲ +1.21% (BTC)

Today's calendar

• Canada: Trimmed CPI y/y
• Canada: Median CPI y/y
• Canada: CPI m/m

Deal Flow

M&A

• OceanaGold's $776m Scrip Bid for Ausgold Opens WA Gold Lane (Businessnews) OceanaGold's all-scrip takeover of Ausgold at $776m brings the Katanning gold project into a mid-tier producer's portfolio, signaling renewed M&A in the WA gold sector.
• Permira leads race for $150-200M Cloudnine Hospitals stake (Mint) Permira is frontrunner to acquire $150-200M stake in Cloudnine Hospitals from True North, edging out TPG. Deal downsized after West Asia acquisition dropped.

IPOs / Listings

• Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190B 2028 revenue forecast (Mint) Anthropic's IPO valuation uses a 2028 revenue forecast of $190-200 billion, with bankers applying multiples seen at Palantir and Cloudflare, sources said.

Restructuring

• Dutch prosecutor sells Knaken crypto for €2.2M; customers face 80% loss (Crypto news) Trustee Carl Hamm tells 6,300 former customers to lower expectations as the bankrupt platform's estate holds only €2.2M against claims of up to €12M.
• Knaken's €7M shortfall leaves 30,000 customers as unsecured creditors (Crypto Briefing) Dutch prosecutors liquidated seized crypto from bankrupt broker Knaken, recovering €2.2 million against a €7 million customer shortfall. Trustee confirms 30,000 clients are…

Headline Roundup

Macro

• Colombia quake toll nears 300; Petro seeks US tariff relief (Economictimes) Colombia's 2028 bond yield rose 12 bps as the quake toll neared 300 and Petro pressed Washington for tariff relief on top of a coffee harvest at risk.
• Why the Fed's Accommodation of Money Demand Is Inflationary (Mises) An Austrian-school essay argues a 5% rise in money demand does not absorb 5% Fed supply growth. The extra money circulates and ends in boom-bust.
• China retail sales miss as investment slump deepens in July (CNBC) Retail sales rose just 0.6% in July, missing forecasts, while urban investment contracted 6.7% year to date. The deepening slowdown adds pressure on Beijing to expand stimulus.
• Why India's 2.1% Inflation Feels Like 7.1% to Consumers (Mint) Bank of Baroda economist hits back at doves who strip food and fuel from India's CPI to make the rate-cut case. Consumers see 7.7%, official Q1 print 3.9%.

Stocks

• Antara Banerjee Arrested After Blade Attack on RPF Officer (Mint) Actress Antara Banerjee arrested on Aravali Express for allegedly attacking an RPF officer with a blade after refusing to vacate a reserved seat, police said.
• Pinion Insurance adds finance trio from Lloyd's, Old Republic (Reinsurancene) Pinion Insurance hired three finance executives from Lloyd's, Old Republic and Great Lakes as the London specialty carrier builds infrastructure to bridge MGAs and capital…
• Privacy app NearLens spots smart glasses via Bluetooth signals (Betakit) A former Microsoft designer built a free iOS app that detects camera-equipped smart glasses nearby. It found 15 devices at an Ottawa hockey arena.
• India's Bhogapuram airport opens with 52 flights on day one (BL) 52 flights on day one as GMR Group's Bhogapuram airport opens with connections to Hyderabad, Abu Dhabi and Singapore. Initial capacity of 6 million passengers annually, expandable…
• Iran War Supplemental: $87.6B on Top of a $1.37T Deficit (Mises) The Pentagon already estimates $37.5B spent on Iran; another $87.6B is requested. Keynes's 1920 inflation warning frames the deficit risk for equities.
• Samsung Malaysia Names Top 10 STEM Teams in Solve for Tomorrow (Manilatimes) Samsung Malaysia selected 10 semi-finalist teams in its Solve for Tomorrow STEM competition, with winners to receive RM114,000 in products.
• Fashionphile Opens First UK Pop-Up in Vauxhall, Flagship Set for 2026 (Retailgazette) Fashionphile opens its first UK physical store, a Vauxhall pop-up for Chanel, Hermès and Gucci resale. The company plans a London flagship in 2026.
• Brdg banks $850K to modernize construction financing (Betakit) Montreal's Brdg closes $850K CAD pre-seed to automate construction draws, with $600M+ in active projects already running in beta.

Crypto

• Chainalysis Sues US Over $94.6M Sole-Source Blockchain Contract (CrowdFundInsider) Chainalysis challenges ICE's $94.6M sole-source blockchain contract with TRM Labs. Oral arguments set for Sept. 2.
• Strategist: CLARITY Act delay is a matter of national security (AMBCrypto) James Thorne warns the CLARITY Act's delay is a national security risk, with China poised to set digital asset rules. Polymarket odds at 20%.
• Bits of Gold breach hits 200,000 customers; no funds stolen (CoinDesk) Bits of Gold says 200,000 customers' data stolen in hack. No funds lost. Third crypto breach in a week after SafePal and Trezor incidents. Phishing risk for affected users.
• CZ Retires Public Wallet After Token Spam Floods His Address (Tokenpost) CZ retires a public wallet after spam tokens clogged it. Trust Wallet's "Ignore coins" feature offers a fix for users overwhelmed by unsolicited crypto transfers.
• CryptoQuant's Momentum Gauge Turns Negative, Bull Score at Zero (Crypto Briefing) CryptoQuant's risk oscillator also reverted to a prior turning-point level, while demand metrics hit 2026 lows. The firm warns of weak market structure.
• CZ Ditches Wallet Over Memecoin Spam; Trust Wallet to Simplify Interface (Cointribune) Changpeng Zhao abandoned his public wallet after receiving too many unwanted memecoins. Trust Wallet will make its 'Ignore coins' feature easier to access after CZ's request.
• Bitpanda Fined €70,000 in Austria's First MiCA Case (Blockonomi) Austria's FMA said Bitpanda marketed a token before filing its crypto white paper and skipped required notices. The €70,000 penalty is final.
• Oil at $150 Could Trigger Crypto Sell-Off, Macgregor Says (Dailycoin) Retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor warns Middle East tensions could push oil to $150, deepening a downturn and pressuring crypto as a risk asset. No specific price targets for…

Forex / Commodities

• Crude Oil, Hormuz Tensions to Drive Indian Market This Week (BL) Indian equities face a data-light week as Strait of Hormuz tensions and crude oil prices take center stage after last week's decline. Fed minutes due Aug. 19 also in focus.
• Aristocrat and Santos: Two ASX Stocks, Two Different Stories (Raskmedia) Aristocrat's revenue grew 11.7% a year to $6.6 billion. Santos posted a 43% debt ratio and an 8.2% ROE. Two ASX stocks, two different financial profiles.
• India's Russian Crude Imports Hit Record $6.4 Billion in July (BL) India's Russian crude imports hit a second straight record at $6.4 billion in July; Urals fell 3% to $60.22, about $16 above the EU-UK $44.1 price cap.
• Cameco Emerges as the Stealth Play in Big Tech's AI Capex Boom (Yahoo) Alphabet, Amazon and Meta each raised AI capex. Cameco, the uranium producer, is the underappreciated bet on nuclear power for data centers. Analysts see 30% upside.
• Bunker Hill Mining Hits First Stope Blast, Eyes Q4 Output (Manilatimes) Bunker Hill completed its first production stope blast and logged four years without a lost-time incident, keeping an Idaho mine on track for Q4 commercial output.
• Equinox Gold Gets BLM Permit for South Railroad, First Gold 2028 (Manilatimes) BLM clears federal permitting for Equinox Gold's South Railroad; early works construction begins. First gold targeted 2028 at 130,000 oz/year average. Capex $395M.
• China Economy Loses Steam as July Data Misses, Exports Carry Load (MarketPulse) July industrial output rose 4.5%, retail sales just 0.6%, missing forecasts. Property investment plunged 19.2%. PBOC manages yuan pace as exports become key growth driver.
• BlueScope Steel Faces Operational Risk After Port Kembla Fatality (SA) BlueScope Steel CEO Tania Archibald said the contractor death at Port Kembla remains under investigation. The company is refocusing safety controls amid operational risk.

Smart Money

• Christian D. Menefee (D-TX): SALE PINS
• Michael Rulli (R-OH): SALE CCI
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE CMCSA
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE DEO
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 85/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 85 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: DHT (DHT Holdings, Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 173,362 contracts, 47.6% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 39,586 contracts, 40.9% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 83,673 contracts, 32.3% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: SPY gains 2% as Nasdaq leads; gold jumps 7%; insider buys MSFT
• Nasdaq: Nasdaq 100 adds 3.3% as NVDA scores 76; QQQ outruns SPY by 120bp
• Crypto: Crypto decouples as QQQ slides 2.3%; ETH leads majors with 3.9% weekly gain
• Forex: Pound gains 0.79% vs dollar; yen shorts hit 35.9% open interest
• Oil: Oil data absent; SPY slips 0.8%, QQQ drops 2.3% on the week

See you tomorrow before the bell.