AlphaScala Weekly: Small caps lead, BTC slips, gold cools

Good morning,

Small caps ran the week, with IWM up 1.70% and QQQ close behind at 1.41% while the Dow slipped 0.40%. Crypto went the other way, Bitcoin down 1.38% to $63,089 as Bitwise cut 14% of staff and the slump reached ETF issuers. Gold and silver both eased, XAU/USD off 0.33% and XAG/USD down 1.61%, yet the AlphaScala model kept two miners near the top in KGC and NEM at 79/100. Insiders showed up at Nike, a four-buyer cluster netting $2.17M. Here's what mattered.

The Week That Was

The split ran between size and safety. Risk-on showed up in the Russell 2000, IWM adding 1.70%, with the Nasdaq proxy QQQ up 1.41% and SPY managing 0.42%; the Dow lagged, DIA down 0.40%. The dollar softened broadly, EUR/USD and GBP/USD both ticking higher and USD/CAD off 0.48%, which usually helps commodities. It didn't this week. Gold slipped to $4,375 and silver dropped 1.61% to $64.68, while WTI sat flat at $81.53.

Crypto carried the week's worst tape. Bitcoin fell 1.38% to $63,089, and the pain moved up the stack as Bitwise laid off 14% of its workforce. Ether held better, up 0.42% to $1,881. The regulatory calendar stayed busy: the SEC was set to vote on tailored crypto offering rules Aug. 14, and Monaco floated a MiCA-style licensing overhaul.

The model leaned defensive-cyclical. Kinross and Newmont both scored 79/100 despite gold's pullback, with Flywire on top at 85 and DHT Holdings at 80. Insider tape backed the value read: a four-buyer cluster at Nike netted $2.17M over 90 days, ten insiders bought TSM, and three stepped in at Simon Property Group. On the politician side, Kevin Hern disclosed sales across CMCSA, DEO and EL.

Markets this week

Indices

• IWM 305.08 ▲ +1.70% from 299.98
• QQQ 731.05 ▲ +1.41% from 720.87
• SPY 776.30 ▲ +0.42% from 773.03
• DIA 536.82 ▼ -0.40% from 538.99

Crypto

• BTC/USD 63,089.01 ▼ -1.38% from 63,970.01
• ETH/USD 1,880.97 ▲ +0.42% from 1,873.16

Commodities

• XAG/USD 64.68 ▼ -1.61% from 65.74
• XAU/USD 4,375.69 ▼ -0.33% from 4,389.99
• WTI/USD 81.53 · +0.03% from 81.51

FX

• USD/CAD 1.39 ▼ -0.48% from 1.39
• AUD/USD 0.7083 ▲ +0.41% from 0.7054
• USD/CHF 0.8135 ▲ +0.39% from 0.8103
• EUR/JPY 184.31 ▲ +0.22% from 183.90
• EUR/USD 1.16 ▲ +0.22% from 1.15
• GBP/JPY 215.60 · +0.19% from 215.20
• GBP/USD 1.35 · +0.18% from 1.35
• NZD/USD 0.5892 · +0.16% from 0.5882

Deal Flow

M&A

• Goldman to Buy Neos Investments for Up to $2.25 Billion (Blockonomi) Goldman Sachs agreed to acquire Neos Investments for up to $2.25 billion, gaining the $1B Bitcoin High Income ETF and other options-based funds. The deal leapfrogs the bank's own…
• Mastercard Buys BVNK for $1.8B in Stablecoin Infrastructure Bet (Coincu) Mastercard's $1.8B acquisition of BVNK brings stablecoin settlement in-house, positioning the card network for faster cross-border payments.
• RPSG's Purvah Green to buy 1.4 GW solar plants from ReNew for ₹4,859 crore (Hindu) Purvah Green, the renewable arm of CESC, will acquire 1.4 GWp operating solar portfolio from ReNew Solar for ₹4,859 crore. The deal adds immediate scale to its 3.4 GWp pipeline,…
• eToro to Buy TradeZero for Up to $231M in US Brokerage Push (Crypto Briefing) eToro is acquiring TradeZero for up to $231 million, gaining a regulated US broker-dealer with options trading and international operations. The deal fills eToro's options gap and…

IPOs / Listings

• CXMT's 466% Debut Hit Micron (Financefeeds) CXMT's 466% debut sent memory stocks tumbling, but the prospectus reveals no HBM funding. The real threat is conventional DRAM, and it's years away from challenging AI memory.
• Anthropic shares hit $1.5T on secondary market as IPO nears (BI) Secondary-market valuation hits $1.5T, up 25% in a month, as sellers hold out for the IPO. Buyers are demanding direct cap table exposure, traders say.
• Schouw & Co. Raises Guidance After Strong Q2, BioMar IPO (Manilatimes) Schouw & Co. raised full-year guidance after a strong Q2, with EBITDA rising on higher activity and productivity gains. The BioMar IPO and Spectre acquisition mark a busy first…
• Bybit TradFi Perpetuals Top 200, Unitree IPO Tests Synthetic Model (Crypto news) Bybit's synthetic TradFi perpetuals pass 200 products as Unitree's $6.1B IPO tests whether pre-IPO perpetual pricing converges with the real market. MOONSHOTUSDT remains…
• Bybit Pre-IPO Perps Show 4x Gap Over Unitree's $9B IPO (Blockonomi) Pre-IPO perpetuals on Hyperliquid imply Unitree worth $38B, more than four times its STAR Market IPO. Bybit adds Moonshot AI contracts as tokenized equities hit $2.38B.
• Harvard's $2.2B SpaceX bet pays off after rocket IPO (Foxbusiness) Harvard Management disclosed a $2.2B SpaceX stake, making the rocket company its largest U.S. equity holding after the June IPO delivered gains for early university investors.

Funding Rounds

• Cronje Argues DeFi Is Dead, Proposes 'Onchain Finance' Label (Crypto Briefing) The Yearn Finance founder says modern protocols with teams and upgradeable contracts no longer fit the 'decentralized' label. His Flying Tulip project raised $200M at a $1B…
• Bank of India to Raise $1B via MTN to Tap RBI Swap Window (BL) BoI's board meets Aug. 14 to approve the dollar bond plan. The lender has already pulled in $207M of NRI deposits through the RBI's swap window, but its $1B target leaves room for…
• Indian Bank Eyes $400M ECB This Week, $2B in NRI Deposits (BL) Indian Bank's MD Binod Kumar said the lender will raise $400M via ECB this week under the RBI's swap window, with another $600M planned before the Dec. 31 deadline.

Restructuring

• Rebel Creamery files Chapter 11 after $23.8M packaging loss (Nypost) Rebel Creamery filed Chapter 11 after a judge ordered it to pay $23.8M for copying Van Leeuwen's packaging. The ice cream maker listed $10M-$50M in assets and debts.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Voltas Q1 net profit jumps 51% on 45% RAC volume growth (BL) Voltas Q1 profit rose 51% to ₹212.8 crore as room AC volume surged 45%. Market share hit 17.3%. Electro-mechanical projects revenue fell 27% amid project delays.

Macro

• AO launches mobile network in move beyond electricals (Retailgazette) AO enters the UK mobile network market with a single 500GB tariff at £12 a month for members, taking on established MVNOs with a proposition built on its 5 million-strong…
• Ireland's CPI Holds at 3.4%, Services Keep Heat on ECB (RTE) Sticky services inflation at 3.2% and an 8.1% annual electricity rise leave Ireland's inflation well above the ECB's 2% target, with winter energy risks ahead.
• EPFO Allows 75% PF Withdrawal for Emergencies (Mint) Members can now withdraw 75% of PF balance for medical, education, housing, unemployment. Minimum membership standardised to 12 months. The move could boost household liquidity.
• Why bank branches shut for 5 days this month (Mint) August bank closures hit five days in some states as RBI holiday calendar drives staggered shutdowns. Find out which days your local branch stays shut.
• Colombia quake toll nears 300; Petro seeks US tariff relief (Economictimes) Colombia's 2028 bond yield rose 12 bps as the quake toll neared 300 and Petro pressed Washington for tariff relief on top of a coffee harvest at risk.
• 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2001 as $742B Auction Cycle Ends (Wolfstreet) The US sold $742B in Treasuries this week. The 30-year bond auction yielded 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and the 10-year note yielded 4.68%, the highest since 2007.
• VGLT vs SCHQ: 0.03% Fees, 4.8% vs 4.9% Yield — Which Wins? (Yahoo) VGLT and SCHQ track the same index with identical fees. VGLT's $13B asset base and longer track record give it a liquidity edge over SCHQ's slightly higher 4.9% yield. Here's what…

Stocks

• ASOS Relaunches Magazine to Tackle Styling Pain Point (Retailgazette) ASOS is bringing back its magazine on Substack with Pat McGrath as beauty curator, part of a campaign addressing a research finding that 68% of consumers struggle with styling.
• Monaco proposes MiCA-style crypto license overhaul (Crypto news) Bill No. 1131 would replace Monaco's 2022 crypto rules with CCAF-based licensing, adding governance, prudential and conduct requirements closer to EU MiCA standards.
• Apple Offers Publishers Usage-Based Fees for Siri Content (Pymnts) Apple is in talks for multiyear publisher deals that would pay media companies when Siri uses their content, WSJ reports. The usage-based model differs from flat-fee AI licensing.
• Europe Ransomware Attacks Jump 29% in First Half of 2026 (Prweb) TicTac Cyber Security logged 1,115 European ransomware attacks in H1 2026, up 29% year over year. Business services are on pace to overtake manufacturing as the top target.
• NYSE tests tokenized settlement; DTC pilot clears live trades (Crypto news) NYSE confirms participation in DTC's July tokenization pilot alongside BlackRock, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. Martin frames live production tests as a critical turning point…
• WNBA's Political Brand Collides With Its Biggest Star (Mises) After a week of flagrant fouls, social media posts and a co-owner cursing at teenage fans, the WNBA's political brand collides with its biggest star.
• Cathie Wood sells $11.6M of Palantir after 30% surge (Yahoo) Cathie Wood sold $11.6 million of Palantir after a 30% rally. The software firm's earnings beat estimates and raised guidance, but Ark's flagship ETF continues to see outflows.
• JioMart Orders Surge 116%; Reliance Retail Margin Falls to 7.9% (Mint) JioMart's average daily orders doubled. The cost of growth is showing in the retailer's earnings. The next three years will test whether stores can drive profit.
• Rémy Cointreau Taps Monika Alcobev for India Distribution (BL) Rémy Cointreau picks Monika Alcobev as its exclusive India distributor, folding a portfolio of cognacs, liqueurs and whiskies under a single national platform to accelerate…
• Tax Software Choice Hinges on Business Return Type, Not Price (Fitsmallbusiness) Tax software choice depends on business return type. TaxAct leads for affordability across structures. TurboTax for expert help. FreeTaxUSA for DIY Schedule C under $20. H&R Block…
• Deterministic Automation Hits a Ceiling, Itential CTO Argues (Forbes) Chris Wade of Itential argues that deterministic automation fails on unanticipated variance. AI reasoning completes the 80% deterministic path, solving the 20% that always broke…
• Antara Banerjee Arrested After Blade Attack on RPF Officer (Mint) Actress Antara Banerjee arrested on Aravali Express for allegedly attacking an RPF officer with a blade after refusing to vacate a reserved seat, police said.

Crypto

• Bitwise Cuts 14% of Staff; Crypto Slump Reaches ETF Issuers (Decrypt) Bitwise cut 14% of staff, bringing headcount to ~155. The $9B manager's Bitcoin ETF holds $2.3B as industry concentration grows. CIO sees bottom as Coldcard exploit boosts ETF…
• SEC to Vote on Tailored Crypto Offering Rules Aug. 14 (Coinspress) The SEC will vote Aug. 14 on whether to propose a tailored offering regime for crypto investment contracts. The vote could start a rulemaking process that gives crypto projects a…
• White House Sets Sept. 15 Deadline for Crypto Clarity Act (Bitcoin) The White House gives the Senate until Sept. 15 to advance the Clarity Act after a blocked procedural vote. Polymarket odds sit at 25%.
• Crypto's Washington wins are reversible without new laws (Crypto Briefing) Executive orders and agency guidance have given crypto breathing room. Industry groups warn those gains could evaporate without legislation that survives the next administration.
• Chainalysis's $154B Crime Report Has No 343% DeFi Jump (Crypto Daily) Chainalysis counted $154B in illicit crypto inflows for 2025, up 162% from 2024. Stablecoins were 84% of volume; the 343% DeFi figure isn't in the report.
• Bank Leumi Taps Galaxy for Bitcoin, Ether and Solana Trading (Crypto news) Bank Leumi, Israel's largest bank, will offer Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana trading via Galaxy from early 2027, becoming the first Israeli bank to provide direct crypto access.
• Binance Data Shows Gen Z Building Stock Positions, Not Just Trading Tokens (Crypto Economy) 76% of Gen Z bStocks accounts are net accumulators. The average user trades three times a month, the lowest frequency of any cohort. Leveraged product usage is near zero.
• SEC Cancels Friday Vote on Crypto Regulation Framework (Crypto Briefing) The SEC canceled an August 14 vote on its 'Regulation Crypto' framework, creating a regulatory vacuum as the CLARITY Act vote moves to September 15. No new date has been set.
• Bank Leumi Taps Galaxy for In-App Crypto Trading in 2027 (Crypto Daily) Bank Leumi will let customers trade crypto in its Leumi Trade app, using Galaxy for execution and custody, with Bitcoin and Ether among the first assets.
• U.S. ETF boom nears 1,470 launches; crypto funds bleed (AMBCrypto) Bitcoin ETFs faced $8.76B in outflows in 2026 as traditional ETF launches surged past 900. Leveraged and derivative products drive the boom, while crypto funds see only a brief…
• CLARITY Act odds fall to 10% ahead of Trump crypto meeting (Altcoin Buzz) Galaxy Digital puts CLARITY Act passage odds at 10% as Trump prepares to meet Coinbase, Ripple and Kalshi executives on August 19. The Senate returns September 14.
• Storm Challenges Google, OpenAI With Same DOJ Logic (Bitcoin) Storm argues Google and OpenAI should face the same DOJ logic that convicted him for Tornado Cash, as their AI tools aid North Korea. The CLARITY Act offers developer protections…

Forex / Commodities

• Montage Gold Koné project on track for Q4 2026 gold pour (Manilatimes) Montage Gold's Koné project is on budget and ahead of schedule for Q4 2026 first gold. 2.7M hours worked in Q2, satellite resources up 1.1Moz. $75M Macquarie loan funds Didievi.
• UK June GDP, Not Q2, Will Decide Sterling's Next Move (Action Forex) BoE hawkish dissent widens at three straight meetings. June GDP data will show whether the economy can handle another hike, setting EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF direction.
• Titan Mining Revenue Jumps 57%, Graphite Project Advances (Manilatimes) Titan Mining Q2: revenue up 57%, EBITDA nearly 4x. Kilbourne graphite project secured orders, on track for 2027 construction.
• Soft CPI and PPI Push Dollar Index Below 100 (FXEmpire) The dollar index touched 99.67 as July inflation and retail sales data dampened September rate hike odds. Traders now see a 33% chance of a Fed move. The August reports will…
• India's Russian Crude Imports Hit Record $6.4 Billion in July (BL) India's Russian crude imports hit a second straight record at $6.4 billion in July; Urals fell 3% to $60.22, about $16 above the EU-UK $44.1 price cap.
• Crude Oil, Hormuz Tensions to Drive Indian Market This Week (BL) Indian equities face a data-light week as Strait of Hormuz tensions and crude oil prices take center stage after last week's decline. Fed minutes due Aug. 19 also in focus.
• Hormuz Deadlock Lifts Oil 6%, India Braces for $5-10B Import Hit (Mint) Crude oil settled 1.67% higher at $88.52 after Iran said no deal reopening Hormuz. India faces a $5-10 billion import bill hike if it cuts Russian crude, an economist warned.
• Aristocrat and Santos: Two ASX Stocks, Two Different Stories (Raskmedia) Aristocrat's revenue grew 11.7% a year to $6.6 billion. Santos posted a 43% debt ratio and an 8.2% ROE. Two ASX stocks, two different financial profiles.
• Pandora's Platinum Pivot — Lower Silver Cost, Higher Holiday Risk (Yahoo) Pandora pivots from silver to platinum plating, locking in lower metal costs. The holiday season will decide if shoppers accept the switch, with the U.S. as the key market.

Smart Money

• Christian D. Menefee (D-TX): SALE PINS
• Michael Rulli (R-OH): SALE CCI
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE CMCSA
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE DEO
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE EL
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE KVUE
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)
• Top insider buying: TTD: insiders net +$143.45M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyers
• Top insider buying: CPNG: insiders net +$136.56M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyers
• Top insider buying: GME: insiders net +$21.56M bought (90d), 3 distinct buyers

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 85/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 85 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: DHT (DHT Holdings, Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: NEM (Newmont Corporation), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 173,362 contracts, 47.6% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 39,586 contracts, 40.9% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 83,673 contracts, 32.3% of open interest

Back tomorrow before the bell.