AlphaScala Daily: Crypto slides, NKE insiders buy $2.17M

Good morning.

Risk is under pressure this morning, with ETH down 2.1% to $1,878 and BTC off 1.6% to $63,727, while gold slipped 1.1% and the yen weakened past 160 against the dollar. Nike's insiders don't seem worried; four of them bought a net $2.17M over the past 90 days, the loudest cluster on today's tape. Eurozone flash CPI and Canadian GDP are the timing risks to watch. On the model, Grupo Cibest tops the board at 84, with T. Rowe Price and Kinross Gold close behind. Let's dive in.

Markets

• USD/JPY 160.25 ▲ +0.44% (US Dollar / Japanese Yen)
• EUR/USD 1.15 ▼ -0.38% (EUR)
• GBP/USD 1.34 ▼ -0.33% (GBP)
• XAU/USD 4,057.42 ▼ -1.12% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,877.83 ▼ -2.11% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 63,726.79 ▼ -1.63% (BTC)

Today's calendar

• Canada: GDP m/m
• Eurozone: CPI Flash Estimate y/y

Deal Flow

M&A

• NYSE Parent ICE Eyes $184B Crypto ETF Custody Market With Digital Trust (Coingape) ICE acquired a custody business in May 2025 and is now pitching ICE Digital Trust to hold crypto ETF assets. The $184B market is growing fast.
• Schumer Bill Targets Presidential Conflicts Including Crypto Ventures (Coinspress) Schumer proposes merging FEC, OGE, OSC into an independent bureau with subpoena power and a private right of action targeting presidential corruption, citing Trump's crypto…
• What is proof of stake? How validators replaced miners (Crypto news) Ethereum's proof of stake cut energy use 99.95% and now secures $400B. How validators replace miners, the Merge's real impact, staking risks, and three ways to stake.
• Equinox Gold Completes Orla Merger, Targets 1Moz+ Gold Production (Manilatimes) Equinox Gold closes Orla Mining merger, creating a North American senior gold producer with 1M+ oz guidance. CEO Darren Hall to retire by Oct 2026, Jason Simpson to take over.

IPOs / Listings

• Cameco's Westinghouse Files for IPO, Testing Nuclear Revival (Financialpost) Westinghouse Electric, co-owned by Cameco and Brookfield, confidentially filed for an IPO. The nuclear reactor builder's public debut will test investor appetite for new atomic…

Debt

• Grayscale Says On-Chain Vaults Could Reshape $1.5T Credit Market (AMBCrypto) Grayscale says on-chain vaults, a $7.3B market, could disrupt the $1.5T CLO space. S&P Global sees real-world asset tokenization and SEC clarity as key. Grayscale's Pandl says…

Restructuring

• NCLAT Rejects DoT's Plea, Upholds Rolta's ₹900 Crore Plan (Mint) NCLAT rejects DoT's plea to recover ₹179 crore from bankrupt Rolta India, upholding a ₹900 crore plan that gives the telecom department just ₹10 lakh.

Headline Roundup

Macro

• Fed's Hammack, Kashkari: Now Is the Time to Act on Inflation (CNBC) Three Fed officials dissented against the rate hold. Hammack and Kashkari said Friday the time to act is now, warning waiting makes the inflation fight costlier.

Stocks

• Gut & Glory lands Whole Foods, Selfridges as fibre demand surges (Retailtimes) UK condiment brand Gut & Glory launches at Whole Foods and Selfridges, packing 25% of daily fibre into two spoonfuls. Founder Toby Morris says the listing reflects a shift toward…
• US Weighs $100,000 Fee for Foreign Graduates' Work Program (E) The U.S. weighs a $100,000 OPT fee for 418,781 foreign graduates. ICE has opened a fraud crackdown, and a similar H-1B fee was struck down in court.
• A Loan Officer's Consistency Book That Skips the Motivational Fluff (Prweb) Mandi Feely-Swain, who closed $816M in mortgages over five years, releases a book about what originators actually miss.
• TenaFe to Showcase PCIe Gen5 SSD for AI and Data Center at FMS 2026 (Prweb) TenaFe will demo PCIe Gen5 SSD controllers for AI PCs, edge AI, and DRAMless boot SSDs for data centers at FMS 2026 in Santa Clara, Aug 4-6. Booth #840.
• Allego's £100m UK EV bet targets retail parking lots (Retailtimes) Allego commits €100M to install 1,400 ultra-fast EV charging points at UK retail and hospitality sites by 2030, offering lease income without capital costs for partners.
• Southport killer charged with prison assault, weapons offenses (UPI) Axel Rudakubana, 19, faces counts of assaulting emergency workers and possession of an offensive weapon at HMP Belmarsh. He appears via video-link from Broadmoor Hospital on…
• India Extends IFSCA Chief Rajaraman's Term Till October 2028 (BL) K Rajaraman will lead IFSCA until October 2028 or age 65, ensuring continuity at GIFT City as the regulator expands into aircraft leasing, insurance, and fund management.
• Lilian Weng's Quick Exit and Return: A Job-Leaving Lesson (BI) Lilian Weng left Thinking Machines Lab citing stress, then rejoined OpenAI days later. Experts say the sequence highlights the risks of over-sharing when quitting.

Crypto

• Texas Bill Would Ban Bitcoin ATMs After $57M in Scam Losses (Crypto Briefing) Texas lost $57M to crypto kiosk scams in 2025. Lawmakers plan to ban the machines outright, joining three other states. A federal bill also targets the fraud.
• Texans Lost $57M to Crypto Kiosk Scams as State Weighs Ban (Decrypt) Texans lost $56.8 million to crypto kiosk scams in 2025, the highest state total. FBI data shows national losses rose 58% to $389 million. Texas may follow Indiana's outright ban.
• Coinbase Posts Surprise $359M Loss as Crypto Trading Volumes Slump (Decrypt) Coinbase posted a $359M net loss on $1.22B revenue as crypto volumes slumped. Transaction revenue fell 21%. Stablecoin and prediction-market revenue surged, and market share hit a…
• Samsung Wallet Stablecoin Roadmap: What Payments Could Change (Crypto Daily) Samsung put stablecoins on the Wallet roadmap at Galaxy Unpacked, showing a USDC-style account UI. The Galaxy Card on Visa gives an immediate acceptance path while native merchant…
• Unlimit Secures MiCA License for EU Crypto Services (CrowdFundInsider) CySEC grants Unlimit's CASP license under MiCA, enabling passporting across all 27 EU member states. CEO Irene Skrynova says the single standard replaces years of navigating…
• Robinhood earns $160 target from Bernstein on tokenization and Rothera growth (Crypto news) Bernstein sees 78% upside for Robinhood as tokenization and Rothera exchange drive new revenue. The brokerage cites $12B in chain volume and $200M in Earn deposits.
• South Korea Confirms 22% Crypto Tax Starting January 2027 (Coingape) South Korea's 22% crypto tax starts Jan 1, 2027, Deputy PM Koo confirms. Loss offset banned, opposition warns investors may flee offshore. First returns due May 2028.
• Coinbase Q2 Loss: $209.5M Unrealized Markdown, Revenue Diversification Grows (Cryip) Coinbase posted a $359.5M Q2 GAAP loss, 58% from an unrealized markdown. Transaction revenue fell 21% while subscription revenue hit a record 48% of net revenue.

Forex / Commodities

• Yen Surges as Japan Intervenes, Dollar Sinks on Warsh Dovishness (Action Forex) Japan intervened after USDJPY broke 159.50, sending the pair down more than 3% in two days. Fed Chair Warsh's dovish tone and stronger eurozone GDP data added pressure.
• Malabar Gold Ships First UK Jewellery Under India-UK Trade Pact (BL) Malabar Gold & Diamonds becomes one of the first Indian jewellers to export to the UK under the India-UK trade agreement, gaining a tariff advantage and a path to 30 new showrooms…
• Balchem Posts Record Q2 Revenue, All Segments Grow (Manilatimes) Balchem's three segments all delivered double-digit revenue growth in Q2 2026, driving record net sales of $284M and adjusted EBITDA of $77.9M. The company sees momentum…
• Gold price prediction: $5,200 bull vs $3,900 bear, time to buy? (Financefeeds) Gold trades near $4,050 after a 28% drawdown from January's record. Central bank buying and fair-value support create a buy-the-dip case, but a hawkish September FOMC poses the…
• Linde Q2 Beats on Earnings, Backlog Hits Record $8.1B (BI) Linde Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.50 beat estimates. The gas backlog hit a record $8.1B on a new electronics contract. Full-year guidance calls for EPS of $17.70 to $17.90.
• ASX 200 Breaks 9000 on Copper Rally, AI Optimism (Smallcaps) The ASX 200 closed above 9000 for the fourth straight month, driven by copper miners and Microsoft's record gain. June inflation cooled, keeping rate hold bets intact.
• India's Q1 crude import bill hits record $50 billion on West Asia conflict (BL) India's crude import bill hit $49.66 billion in Q1 FY27, the highest on record, as the West Asia conflict pushed prices to $114/bbl in April. PPAC data shows import dependence at…
• Valero Energy (VLO) Publishes Q2 Results Ahead of Earnings Call (SA) Valero Energy posted second-quarter results Tuesday before its earnings call. The refiner's Q2 report and supplemental tables are available online. Alpha Score of 56.

Smart Money

• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE ARCC
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE BAC
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE XOM
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE HD
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: CIB (Grupo Cibest S.A.), Alpha Score 84/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 84 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: TROW (T. Rowe Price Group Inc.), Alpha Score 81/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 81 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 174,448 contracts, 47.7% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 49,969 contracts, 45.9% of open interest
• COT extreme: Japanese Yen (JPY): hedge funds net short 152,125 contracts, 35.9% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: SPY slips 0.4% as QQQ drops 1.7%; gold gains 1.2%
• Nasdaq: QQQ falls 1.7% as AAPL surges 3.5%; DTCC tokenized stock tests spur SEC push
• Oil: Oil data absent; SPY slips 0.8%, QQQ drops 2.3% on the week
• Gold: Gold flat at $4,056 as BTC rallies 2.6%, QQQ slides 2.3%
• Crypto: Crypto decouples as QQQ slides 2.3%; ETH leads majors with 3.9% weekly gain

Back Monday before the bell.