AlphaScala Daily: Core PCE, GDP at 8:30; NKE cluster buy

Good morning.

Three top-tier US prints drop together at 8:30, with core PCE and advance GDP sharing the tape with weekly claims, so the open is hostage to the data. Across the Atlantic, the BOE hands down its rate decision and Monetary Policy Report, keeping cable near 1.34 in play. Bitcoin sits just under 65,000 after a 1.5% overnight gain. On the signal tape, four Nike insiders bought a net $2.17M over 30 days, and Grupo Cibest tops the model at 83. Here's what matters.

Markets

• USD/JPY 162.90 ▼ -0.33% (US Dollar / Japanese Yen)
• XAU/USD 4,075.26 ▲ +0.20% (Gold)
• BTC/USD 64,959.98 ▲ +1.52% (BTC)
• ETH/USD 1,926.72 ▲ +0.84% (ETH)

Today's calendar

• United States: Core PCE Price Index m/m
• United States: Advance GDP q/q
• United States: Unemployment Claims
• United Kingdom: Monetary Policy Summary
• United Kingdom: BOE Monetary Policy Report
• United Kingdom: Official Bank Rate

Deal Flow

M&A

• HashKey Plans APEX Acquisition in Singapore Derivatives Push (Coincu) HashKey plans to acquire all shares of APEX, a Singapore-licensed derivatives exchange. The deal terms remain undisclosed, but the move signals a regulated infrastructure…
• NYSE Parent ICE Eyes $184B Crypto ETF Custody Market With Digital Trust (Coingape) ICE acquired a custody business in May 2025 and is now pitching ICE Digital Trust to hold crypto ETF assets. The $184B market is growing fast.

Funding Rounds

• The Hardest Part of Building a Startup Comes After Seed Funding (Mint) India's startup ecosystem supports early and late stages, but growth-stage founders are left to navigate the hardest part alone, according to ASCENT Foundation CEO Sagar Gosalia.
• Why Crypto Projects That Survived 2022 Are Shutting Down in 2026 (Cointribune) 101 crypto projects shut down since January, per RootData. DeFi apps earning $1M+ monthly fees fell to ~25 from ~34. Morpho raised $175M. Survival criteria shifted.

Restructuring

• UK mortgage approvals rebound, credit card annual rate 12.5% (Forex Live) Net mortgage approvals rose to 58,200 in June. Credit card borrowing accelerated to 12.5% annually. A BOE survey showed default rates at the highest since 2009.
• NCLAT Rejects DoT's Plea, Upholds Rolta's ₹900 Crore Plan (Mint) NCLAT rejects DoT's plea to recover ₹179 crore from bankrupt Rolta India, upholding a ₹900 crore plan that gives the telecom department just ₹10 lakh.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Tikehau Profit Doubles as Asset Manager Enters ‘Harvesting Phase’ (SA) Net profit doubled as the firm begins monetizing assets after years of building its platform. Co-founder Antoine Flamarion said exit activity is improving in private equity and…

Macro

• TASMAC scam probe pushes Tamil Nadu toward retail liquor privatisation (BL) DVAC probe into Rs 1,000 crore TASMAC scam pushes TVK to consider opening retail liquor sales to private operators after Madras High Court denies bail to former minister V Senthil…
• Stanley 1913 targets café and mobility growth beyond Quencher (Retailgazette) Stanley 1913 EMEA GM Ben James on how the brand is expanding into café and mobility categories, with café set to hit 30% of revenue by 2026.

Stocks

• Patanjali Ayurved Gets IRDAI Nod for Magma General Insurance Buy (Mint) IRDAI approved Patanjali Ayurved's acquisition of 73.56% stake in Magma General Insurance for ₹4,500 crore, moving Baba Ramdev's group into general insurance.
• Microsoft slips as AI skepticism grows after Claude fails project test (Economictimes) Microsoft shares slipped 0.71% after a viral episode showed Claude AI failing a Microsoft Project test, fueling enterprise AI skepticism. The stock holds a Moderate Alpha Score of…
• AI Shopping Agents Demand Structured Product Data, Akeneo VP Says (Retailtimes) Justin Thomas of Akeneo warns retailers that AI assistants will exclude products with incomplete or inconsistent data, making structured product information critical…
• Hyundai Motor India Net Plunges 35% on Output Snags, Exports Hit (Hindu) Hyundai Motor India's Q1 net profit fell 35% to ₹888.6 crore on production snags and West Asia turmoil. The company expects a recovery from Q2 onward and maintained its full-year…
• NCW Sets 2030 Target to End Child Marriage, 10% Cut by 2026 (BL) NCW chairperson Vijaya Rahatkar announced a target to eliminate child marriage by 2030, with a 10% reduction by 2026. The national average is 23.3%, with three states above 40%.
• Kotak Securities Wins Second Straight Great Place to Work Certification (BL) Kotak Securities wins Great Place to Work certification for second year and is named among India's Best Workplaces in Investments 2026, citing employee trust and culture.
• The Goal of Socialists Is Socialism (Mises) Socialism's goal is not prosperity but power, writes economist Bill Anderson. The ideology poses a long-term structural risk to Apple and other stocks, even if the timeline is…
• Greentank raises $20M from Dubai's AIR Global (Betakit) AIR Global's $20M USD investment gives it preferred shares, a board seat, and supply-chain assurances for its FDA tobacco application.

Crypto

• Anchorage Digital Says Fed's Limited Payment Account Falls Short (CrowdFundInsider) Anchorage Digital Bank told the Fed its proposed limited payment account cannot replace a master account, citing missing FedACH access, balance caps, and no interest on reserves.
• Triple‑A Hot Wallet Losses Reach $11.8M, Deposits Still at Risk (CrowdFundInsider) On‑chain investigator Specter says Triple‑A's hot wallet losses have reached $11.8M, and new deposits continue to be drained. The company has not shut off the affected addresses.
• BNY Launches Blockchain Transfer Agency for Tokenized Funds (CrowdFundInsider) BNY's blockchain transfer agency platform goes live with Baillie Gifford, BlackRock as early adopters, handling subscriptions and redemptions onchain.
• Samsung SDS stablecoin talks with Upbit operator Dunamu (CT) Samsung SDS CEO Lee Jun-hee said the IT arm is discussing stablecoin infrastructure and AI payment models with Dunamu, operator of crypto exchange Upbit. Cloud revenue jumped 75%…
• Crypto Exchange Luno Cuts 20% of Staff, Citing Automation (Decrypt) Luno cuts ~20% of global staff as CEO Lanigan cites automation investments; exchange pivots to B2B and non-US stablecoins. Second layoff round since 2023.
• South Korea Crypto Tax Set for 2027 as Political Fight Heats Up (CoinDesk) Seoul plans 22% tax on crypto gains above $1,740 from Jan 1, 2027. Opposition warns of capital flight, pushes repeal. Subcommittee to decide.
• EU Travel Rule Forces Identity Checks on All Crypto Transfers (Crypto Daily) EU crypto transfers now require identity data after MiCA deadline. Notabene's network handles $2T+ in compliant volume; Elliptic adds continuous monitoring.
• Bank of Korea tests tokenized reserves in cross-border payments exercise (Crypto news) The Bank of Korea completed live Project Agora trials with 800,000 Swiss francs in tokenized reserve transactions across six currencies. Next tests include deposit token payments…

Forex / Commodities

• Dollar Weakens After Fed, BOE Holds; Euro Data Adds Pressure (Forex Live) The greenback gave up early gains after Chair Warsh's press conference. USD/JPY spiked then slid. European equities rose, led by Microsoft's pre-market surge. Euro data adds ECB…
• India defends ethanol blending as safe, cites 20 crore vehicles on E20 (Mint) India's government says E20 petrol is safe after testing on 20 crore vehicles. Minister cites field data from manufacturers showing no engine damage, while ethanol blending helps…
• Anfield Energy Prices $6M Public Offering at $4/Share (Manilatimes) Anfield Energy priced a $6M public offering of 1.49M shares at $4 each. Proceeds fund uranium projects in Utah. Closing expected July 31. Dilution risk for shareholders.
• Oroco Hits 7.57% Copper at Vainilla, Drone Survey Complete (Manilatimes) A selective rock sample from Oroco's Vainilla project returned 7.57% copper at the El Platano breccia pipe. A drone magnetic survey covering 3,114 hectares is now complete, with…
• REV Taps Uranium Discovery Veteran Sam Hartmann as COO (Manilatimes) Sam Hartmann, who helped discover the $1.14B Triple R uranium deposit, becomes REV's COO as the helium explorer prepares drilling in Montana and Alberta.
• Goldera Raises $5.5M, Starts Trading Aug 5 After Fancamp Spin-Out (Manilatimes) Goldera Exploration begins trading Aug 5 on TSX-V under GERA. Spin-out from Fancamp unlocks $5.5M for Egan Gold and Acadian Copper-Gold projects. Half of shares locked up until…
• Vedanta Aluminium Metal Q1 PAT Triples to ₹6,597 Crore (BL) Vedanta Aluminium Metal's Q1 PAT tripled to ₹6,597 crore on higher volumes and realisations. Board declared ₹8 interim dividend. Approved 150 MW battery storage deal with…
• De Beers launches Desert diamonds beacon in China (Manilatimes) De Beers launched Desert diamonds in Shanghai, its first new beacon in a decade. The campaign targets younger Chinese consumers with "Real People" storytelling and three retail…

Smart Money

• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE ARCC
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE BAC
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE XOM
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE HD
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: CIB (Grupo Cibest S.A.), Alpha Score 83/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 83 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: TROW (T. Rowe Price Group Inc.), Alpha Score 81/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 81 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 174,448 contracts, 47.7% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 49,969 contracts, 45.9% of open interest
• COT extreme: Japanese Yen (JPY): hedge funds net short 152,125 contracts, 35.9% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: SPY slips 0.4% as QQQ drops 1.7%; gold gains 1.2%
• Nasdaq: QQQ falls 1.7% as AAPL surges 3.5%; DTCC tokenized stock tests spur SEC push
• Oil: Oil data absent; SPY slips 0.8%, QQQ drops 2.3% on the week
• Gold: Gold flat at $4,056 as BTC rallies 2.6%, QQQ slides 2.3%
• Crypto: Crypto decouples as QQQ slides 2.3%; ETH leads majors with 3.9% weekly gain

See you tomorrow before the bell.