AlphaScala Daily: NKE insiders buy $2.17M, TROW tops model

Good morning.

Four Nike insiders put down a net $2.17M over the past month, the loudest cluster on today's tape. Ten TSM insiders also stepped in, though for a thinner $45K net. T. Rowe Price and Grupo Cibest tie at the top of the model at 82, with Kinross close behind at 79. Bitcoin's back above 64K while ETH slipped under 1,910, and Jim Himes dumped both BAC and XOM. Let's dive in.

Markets

• XAU/USD 4,016.65 ▼ -0.30% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,907.48 ▼ -0.77% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 64,357.9 ▲ +0.69% (BTC)

Deal Flow

M&A

• Axalta Posts Record Adjusted EBITDA as AkzoNobel Merger Vote Nears (Manilatimes) Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $305M in Q2, margin widened to 22.7%. The August 5 shareholder vote on the AkzoNobel merger will test whether that momentum translates into deal…
• Man Group Discloses 1.8% AMG Stake as Takeover Chatter Builds (Manilatimes) Man Group PLC filed a Form 8.3 revealing a net long position of 2.1 million shares in AMG Critical Materials, equal to 1.8% of the company. The disclosure comes as the Saudi…
• HashKey Plans APEX Acquisition in Singapore Derivatives Push (Coincu) HashKey plans to acquire all shares of APEX, a Singapore-licensed derivatives exchange. The deal terms remain undisclosed, but the move signals a regulated infrastructure…

Funding Rounds

• The Hardest Part of Building a Startup Comes After Seed Funding (Mint) India's startup ecosystem supports early and late stages, but growth-stage founders are left to navigate the hardest part alone, according to ASCENT Foundation CEO Sagar Gosalia.
• Why Crypto Projects That Survived 2022 Are Shutting Down in 2026 (Cointribune) 101 crypto projects shut down since January, per RootData. DeFi apps earning $1M+ monthly fees fell to ~25 from ~34. Morpho raised $175M. Survival criteria shifted.

Restructuring

• UK mortgage approvals rebound, credit card annual rate 12.5% (Forex Live) Net mortgage approvals rose to 58,200 in June. Credit card borrowing accelerated to 12.5% annually. A BOE survey showed default rates at the highest since 2009.

Funds

• Jump Capital closes $350M crypto-heavy Fund VII (Crypto news) Jump Capital's seventh fund at $350 million will allocate more resources to blockchain and digital assets, citing growing institutional adoption and rapid product development.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Sundaram Clayton Q1: Loss widens as costs hit margins (BL) Sundaram Clayton's Q1 consolidated loss widened to ₹59 crore on higher raw material and freight costs, despite a 16% revenue jump. The auto parts maker flagged geopolitical risks…
• Aston Martin Delivers 220 Valhallas, Posts Material H1 Improvement (SA) The first mid-engine PHEV supercar shipped over 220 units in H1, part of a product mix shift the CEO says is on track to deliver material financial improvement.
• P&G misses revenue estimates as demand stays flat (CNBC) Organic revenue was unchanged for the quarter as shoppers traded down to cheaper brands. P&G sees fiscal 2027 core EPS of $6.89 to $7.11, in line with Wall Street expectations.
• Yum Brands faces a Taco Bell traffic crisis that earnings alone can't fix (CNBC) Taco Bell traffic has plunged by double digits since the FDA linked a cyclosporiasis outbreak to its lettuce. Yum Brands reports Q2 earnings Thursday, but the real question is…

Stocks

• India IT Stocks Surge as Global Tech Rout Spares Nifty (BL) Nifty IT jumps 3.3% as Coforge revenue surges 33%, while HUL falls 7% on margin pressure. Crude eases on Iran talks, rupee strengthens. Fed and BoJ decisions next.
• Integra, Congregational Tap Hadron for £500M Capacity (Reinsurancene) Integra Insurance Solutions and Congregational Insurance Solutions have secured a four-year, £500 million GWP capacity deal with specialty carrier Hadron.
• Thinking Machines Lab cofounder Lilian Weng steps down, citing health (BI) Lilian Weng, who cofounded Thinking Machines Lab with OpenAI's ex-CTO Mira Murati, said consistent stress and workload pushed her beyond what her health could sustain.
• Cincinnati Financial net income jumps 83% to $1.26bn in Q2 (Reinsurancene) Investment gains drove the headline earnings beat, but catastrophe losses pushed the combined ratio to 100.8% and non-GAAP operating income fell 28%.
• Rapido Folds Ownly Food Delivery Into Main Bengaluru App (Mint) Rapido folds Ownly into its main Bengaluru app, giving the zero-commission food delivery platform access to its ride-hailing user base.
• DEI Is Not Dead. It's Just Using Different Words (Mises) DEI programs at universities and federal agencies are not dead. They have renamed and restructured to avoid executive orders banning specific terms, not specific practices.
• High-Yield Savings Accounts Pay Up to 5.00% APY (Doctorofcredit) Top high-yield savings accounts now pay up to 5.00% APY. Banks like Citizens Financial Group, CIT, Marcus, and Ally offer steady rates. FDIC insured, no fees.
• Army's Next Generation Command and Control tested in desert, gaps remain (BI) Army's NGC2 system tested at Fort Irwin. Soldiers planned missions and coordinated fires. Connection drops and unlinked drones showed the system is still in prototype phase.

Crypto

• Crypto Scams Cost Americans $80.7B in 2025, CFA Says (Decrypt) Crypto scams accounted for over half of estimated $148.2B in total fraud losses last year, with the Consumer Federation of America scaling FBI data for underreporting.
• Russia central bank unveils rules for crypto exchanges, depositories (Crypto news) The Bank of Russia proposed capital requirements, registration and timelines for regulated crypto trading starting Sept. 1. Sberbank and VTB are preparing services.
• Grayscale: HYPE Multiple of 15-18x Trails COIN, HOOD, PYPL (Benzinga) Grayscale projects HYPE 2027 EPS of $3.25-$3.75, putting the multiple at 15-18x, below fintech peers. A new stablecoin revenue stream is baked into the $1B earnings estimate.
• Nansen CEO Predicts AI Agents Will Outperform Human Traders (CrowdFundInsider) Nansen's Alex Svanevik says AI agents will dominate trading within two years as the firm pivots to execution, with $500M in volume and growing non-crypto asset trading.
• Fed Expected to Hold Rates as Crypto Markets Brace for Volatility (Crypto Briefing) FOMC meets July 29-30 with rates at 3.5-3.75%. Bitcoin near $64k as Citadel bets on a surprise hike. Warsh's hawkish tone could trigger selloff below $60k.
• DeFi Accounts for Most of 101 Crypto Project Closures in 2026 (Crypto Briefing) DeFi protocols account for more than half of the 99-101 crypto projects that ceased operations in 2026, RootData shows, with funding depleted and on-chain activity declining.
• Blockchain Micropayments: From Sub-Cent to Autonomous Commerce (Crypto Economy) Blockchain networks with second-layer scaling and stablecoins make sub-cent transactions viable, enabling new revenue models for content, gaming, IoT, and AI agents.
• Schwab rebrands $232M crypto ETF with NLP buzzword, same strategy (CryptoSlate) Schwab rebranded its $232M crypto-equity ETF with "natural language processing" in the name, four years after the fund began using it. The strategy, fee, and index remain…

Forex / Commodities

• Surge Copper Names Three New Directors as Berg Project Advances (Manilatimes) Surge Copper (TSXV:SURG) nominates Tony Scott, Nalaine Morin, and David Farrell for board election at Sept. 29 AGM, bringing mine development, Indigenous relations, and project…
• Crude Surge, IT Rally Drive Sensex 889-Point Gain (Rediff) Brent crude jumped 3.8% as Middle East supply fears returned. Indian equities rallied on IT gains and FII inflows. Fed decision later today is the next catalyst for…
• Krystal Biotech's Profitability and Pipeline Create Distinct Risk Profile (SA) Krystal Biotech is profitable and self-funding with VYJUVEK nearing blockbuster status. The analyst sees optionality in the pipeline. Pipeline failure remains the key risk.
• Rio Tinto Half-Year Call Opens with Indigenous Welcome (SA) Rio Tinto's July 28 half-year call opened with a welcome to country by Chairman Murray. CEO Trott and CFO Cunningham presented. Alpha Score 62. No financial details released.
• AUD Slides, RBA Bets Flip; Chip Rout and Iran Tensions Grip Markets (FXEmpire) A soft Australian CPI print reshapes RBA rate bets, a chip rout deepens in Asia, and US-Iran tensions keep oil prices capped ahead of the Fed decision.

Smart Money

• Pete Sessions (R-TX): SALE ARCC
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE BAC
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE XOM
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE HD
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: TROW (T. Rowe Price Group Inc.), Alpha Score 82/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 82 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: CIB (Grupo Cibest S.A.), Alpha Score 82/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 82 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 174,448 contracts, 47.7% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 49,969 contracts, 45.9% of open interest
• COT extreme: Japanese Yen (JPY): hedge funds net short 152,125 contracts, 35.9% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: SPY slips 0.4% as QQQ drops 1.7%; gold gains 1.2%
• Nasdaq: QQQ falls 1.7% as AAPL surges 3.5%; DTCC tokenized stock tests spur SEC push
• Oil: Oil data absent; SPY slips 0.8%, QQQ drops 2.3% on the week
• Gold: Gold flat at $4,056 as BTC rallies 2.6%, QQQ slides 2.3%
• Crypto: Crypto decouples as QQQ slides 2.3%; ETH leads majors with 3.9% weekly gain

See you tomorrow before the bell.