AlphaScala Daily: NFP at 8:30, NKE cluster buy in focus

Good morning.

Jobs day. The unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, and hourly earnings all hit at 8:30 a.m. ET, so expect thin books to start and sharp moves right after. Crypto ran ahead of the print overnight, with ETH up 2.9% to 1,654 and BTC back over 61,000. On the tape, four Nike insiders bought a net $2.17M over the past 30 days, KGC sits atop the model at 79, and Rep. Matthew Van Epps dumped Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple. Here's what matters.

Markets

• USD/JPY 161.57 ▼ -0.64% (US Dollar / Japanese Yen)
• GBP/USD 1.33 ▲ +0.23% (GBP)
• XAU/USD 4,067.45 ▲ +0.89% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,654.5 ▲ +2.93% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 61,285.17 ▲ +2.21% (BTC)

Today's calendar

• United States: Unemployment Rate
• United States: Non-Farm Employment Change
• United States: Average Hourly Earnings m/m
• United States: Unemployment Claims

Deal Flow

M&A

• Rawasi Albina Signs MoU for 50% Stake in Al Emlaq Trading (Argaam) Rawasi Albina Investment Co. signed a non-binding MoU to acquire a 50% economic interest in Riyadh-based Al Emlaq Trading Est. The deal, if completed, would expand Rawasi's…

IPOs / Listings

• Saleh Al Rashed Shares Hit Record Low Since TASI Debut (Argaam) Saleh Al Rashed shares hit their lowest since the TASI listing on June 2, extending a slide that erased most IPO gains amid broader Saudi market weakness.

Debt

• AFG International Gets SAR 1.35B Loan From Al-Futtaim (Argaam) AFG International shareholders approved a SAR 1.35 billion loan from Al-Futtaim Private Co. to refinance debt and fund working capital, avoiding equity dilution.
• FMC's $750M Debt Raise: Band-Aid with Dilution Risk (SA) FMC sold $750M in notes at 9.375% to stay afloat. The conversion feature could dilute common equity if the stock stays low. Cash burn continues.

Restructuring

• Ashish Kacholia's ₹2,300 Crore Comeback: Why Resilience Beats Riches (Rakesh-jhunjhunwala) From bankrupt at 27 to a ₹2,300 crore portfolio, Ashish Kacholia reveals how he lost ₹1,000 crore twice and rebuilt. The lesson for investors: setbacks aren't the end.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Tihama Fails to Publish Annual Results, Risks Suspension (Argaam) Tihama Advertising said it failed to publish its annual financial statements for the year ended March 31, raising the risk of trading suspension by Saudi regulators.

Macro

• Saudi Banks Cut Bond Holdings by SAR 3.9B to SAR 663B (Argaam) Saudi banks cut government bond holdings by SAR 3.9B to SAR 663B in May, halting a three-month buying run. Loan growth pressures may drive further sales.
• US stock futures mixed ahead of June payrolls report (SA) US stock futures ticked sideways Thursday evening as the market prepared for the June nonfarm payrolls report, the week's biggest catalyst for rate expectations.
• Adar Poonawalla Family Office puts ₹700 cr into Inox Clean Energy (BL) Adar Poonawalla Family Office invests ₹700 crore in Inox Clean Energy at a ₹70,000 crore valuation, joining CalPERS and other marquee investors as the company expands across…

Stocks

• Why Two S&P 500 ETFs Can Deliver Different Returns Over Time (Advisor) Structural differences between ETFs tracking the same benchmark can compound into meaningful performance gaps. SPY vs VOO shows how dividend policy and replication matter.
• The Quiet Shift to Premium Children's Activewear (Europeanbusinessreview) Parents are moving from volume to quality in children's activewear, driven by comfort and durability. The shift is functional, not aesthetic. moodytiger's fabric-first design…
• MOSS Bucks Retail Retreat With M&S Distribution Deal (Retailtimes) MOSS adds M&S as a wholesale partner, gaining 400+ store locations and online distribution without opening new leases. The deal tests whether hybrid retail, own stores plus a…
• Plant pot that expands eightfold targets urban gardener pain point (Retailtimes) A Scottish couple's Helix pot uses NASA-inspired folding to grow with the plant, eliminating repotting. The design targets the fastest-growing segment of home gardeners: young…
• Solid Biosciences: Platform Story Shifts Risk Profile (SA) The Seeking Alpha analyst argues Solid Biosciences is evolving from a speculative Duchenne gene therapy play into a broader clinical validation story, shifting the risk/reward for…
• Jarir, Amana Insurance Hit 52-Week Highs on TASI (Argaam) Jarir Marketing hit SAR 14.50 and Amana Insurance closed at SAR 17.80, both 52-week highs on TASI. Volumes ran above average with no company statements.
• Fiona Cairns Overhauls Brand Look as Royal Baker Eyes Wider Premium Reach (Retailtimes) The premium baker behind the royal wedding cake has a new logo and packaging. The rebrand targets a broader retail audience as competition in premium desserts intensifies.
• Honest Burgers introduces £5 loaded chips to satisfy snacking trend (Retailtimes) Honest Burgers launches £5 loaded chips to tap the snackification trend, as 60% of consumers seek smaller, cheaper meals. The move tests whether premium fast-casual can capture…

Crypto

• CLARITY Act Passage Expected, Crypto Oversight Shift to CFTC (Crypto Briefing) The CLARITY Act would transfer most digital asset oversight from SEC to CFTC. SEC commissioner says passage expected soon; Senate needs 60 votes by July 4.
• Visa, Mastercard Join 140-Plus Firms to Launch Open USD Stablecoin (Crypto news) Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase and 140+ businesses form Open Standard consortium to launch fee-free stablecoin Open USD later this year. Shared reserve economics and GENIUS Act…
• Hull City's £3M Butland Deal Shows Crypto's Football Retreat (Crypto Briefing) Hull City's £3M goalkeeper swap with Rangers uses no fan tokens or blockchain rails. The club's crypto sponsorship history ended in scandal, mirroring the sector's retreat from…
• Visa, Mastercard, BNY, Coinbase Launch Stablecoin Venture (CrowdFundInsider) A 140-company alliance including Visa, Mastercard, BNY, and Coinbase is launching a dollar-pegged stablecoin for business payments. The move targets real-world use beyond crypto…
• Europe's MiCA Rethink Puts Stablecoin Rules in Play (CoinDesk) The EU is preparing MiCA 2.0, a review of stablecoin reserve rules, multi-issuance models, and supervisory power. Dollar-pegged tokens dominate $310B of the $311B market, and the…
• DeFi Lending's Wrapper Trap: Tokenized GOOGL Inflated 78x (Crypto Daily) A tokenized Google position on Edel Finance was valued at 78x the real share price. The attacker borrowed against air. The oracle was right. The wrapper was not.
• Robinhood Prediction Market Revenue May Surpass Crypto Trading (CryptoSlate) Artemis estimates Robinhood's prediction-market revenue could hit $123M in Q2, nearing crypto's $134M. Event-contract growth challenges the retail-crypto proxy view, while the…
• Trump's $2B Year: Crypto Drives Over $1.4B in Income (Crypto Briefing) President Trump's 2025 financial disclosure shows over $2 billion in income, with crypto ventures accounting for $1.4 billion. World Liberty Financial alone generated $800 million.

Forex / Commodities

• Eni's Argentina LNG Stake Depends on Fiscal Rules (Insidermonkey) Eni's 32% stake in Vaca Muerta shale blocks supplies Argentina's $7B LNG export project. A stable fiscal regime is needed to unlock investment. YPF faces execution risk.
• Alcoa's $5.6B Aluminum Bet: Debt Load and AI Demand (Investorideas) Alcoa pays $3.1B cash plus stock for South32's alumina chain. Debt load hits $7B. Synergies hinge on metal prices. Sector read-through: AA, BE.
• Warsh at Sintra, Data Stack Set Q3 Tone as Rate-Hike Bets Rise (Zerohedge) Fed Chair Warsh joins Lagarde and Bailey at Sintra as rate-hike bets rise. July hike pricing hit 34% after Hammack's hawkish comments. S&P futures down 0.2%, Nasdaq down 0.6%.…
• Record Heat Tests PJM Grid as EU Hits Low-Cost Imports (SA) The DoE declared a power emergency for PJM Interconnection as a heat wave pushes demand toward records. The EU began a €3 customs fee on low-value imports from outside the bloc.
• USD Rates Outlook: Goldman Sachs Expects Fed to Stay on Hold Through 2026 (ExchangeRates) The dollar holds gains after Fed Chair signals easing inflation risks. Goldman Sachs expects rates on hold through 2026, supporting USD yield advantage. Next focus: March dot plot.
• OCI Mulls Sale After Shareholder Pressure, Sources Say (Manilatimes) OCI Global shares jump 6.4% after majority shareholder NNS submits strategic proposal, raising break-up or sale expectations for the ammonia and methanol producer.
• Sintra: Central Bankers Abandon Forward Guidance, Elevate Data (InvestingCube) Fed's Warsh, Lagarde, Bailey, Macklem abandon forward guidance at Sintra. NFP now critical as data replaces central bank signals. Read the transmission.
• RBC Lifts Cameco Target on Nuclear Demand, Cigar Lake Deal (Insidermonkey) RBC Capital raised its Cameco price target to C$175, citing nuclear demand and higher contract pricing. The Cigar Lake stake deal strengthens exposure to rising uranium prices.

Smart Money

• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE GOOGL
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE AMZN
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE AAPL
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE XOM
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: AKTS (Aktis Oncology, Inc.), Alpha Score 78/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 78 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• Alpha Score top: GOOGL (Alphabet Inc. Class A), Alpha Score 77/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 77 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: BRAI (Braiin Ltd), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 54,844 contracts, 53.1% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 146,792 contracts, 42.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Swiss Franc (CHF): hedge funds net short 41,094 contracts, 37.8% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Nasdaq: Nasdaq slides 4.4% as AI chip rout hits NVDA; MSFT and AAPL bounce late
• Sp500: SPY drops 2.1% as AI chip rout slams QQQ 4.4%; NVDA Alpha Score weakens
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin drops 5.95% to $60,144 as macro tightening squeezes stablecoin supply
• Crypto: BTC slides 4% alongside gold as QQQ dips just 0.45%; LAB short-squeeze jumps 28%
• Oil: Iran missile strike shoots Brent above $92; Strait of Hormuz risk returns

See you tomorrow before the bell.