WTI crude tests the $80.46 pivot as OPEC+ prepares to approve a September output hike. Brent and natural gas chart setups also point lower.
Alpha Score of 59 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, weak value, weak quality, moderate sentiment.
WTI crude oil slid below its rising channel and the 50-day exponential moving average last week, and the chart now points to a test of the $80.46 pivot. The front-month contract traded around $80.82 on Monday, with the relative strength index near 37. That level is close to oversold territory, a trader said.
Support at $80.46 is the immediate line to hold. A break below that would open a path toward $77.96 and then $75.21, levels not tested since March. On the upside, resistance sits at $82.00, then $84.75. The short-term trend stays bearish while WTI holds under $82.00. A close above $84.75 would shift the bias, the trader added.
The technical pressure comes ahead of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for early August. The group is expected to approve another 188,000 barrels per day of production increases for September as part of the planned unwinding of voluntary output cuts, Reuters reported. OPEC+ pumped 36.28 million bpd in June, well below the nearly 43 million bpd produced before regional conflict escalated.
The supply gap has kept a floor under prices, two analysts said. The question is whether the gradual quota increase signals that spare capacity is returning to the market. The geopolitical overlay has not cleared. Crude and refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 2.9 million bpd in the week ended July 24, according to Barclays, down from 5.9 million bpd the prior week. U.S. and Iranian diplomatic contacts continue, the analysts said, flows have not rebounded.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal resumed loadings after a brief stoppage. Analysts flagged the risk of further attacks near Saudi facilities and in the Red Sea.
Brent crude has followed a similar path. The front-month contract fell below its rising channel, the 50-EMA at $89.82, and the 100-EMA at $86.74. Brent traded around $84.17 with an RSI of 33. Support sits at $83.52, then $79.52 and $75.07. Resistance is at $86.74, then $88.12. The trend remains bearish while Brent holds below $86.74.
Natural gas futures slid through last week's consolidation zone. Front-month contracts traded around $2.734, below both the 50-EMA at $2.874 and the 100-EMA at $2.944. The RSI sat near 33. Support at $2.728 is the first line to watch. A break below that opens the path toward $2.662 and then $2.610. On the upside, resistance at $2.781 needs to be reclaimed to pause the slide. A move above $2.827 would relieve the selling pressure.
The bearish technicals sit against a supply backdrop that is not as tight as the price action suggests. The U.S. Energy Information Administration sees dry natural gas production averaging 111.25 Bcf/d in 2026. LNG exports should climb to 17.4 Bcf/d from 15.1 Bcf/d next year as new liquefaction capacity starts up. Working gas inventories are projected to end October at 3,966 Bcf, roughly 5% above the five-year average. That buffer covers winter heating demand while leaving room for rising exports, one analyst said. It also removes the urgency that drives a cash-market rally, the analyst added.
For traders watching the energy complex, the key levels are the same across the three benchmarks: natural gas at $2.728 and $2.781, WTI at $80.46 and $82.00, Brent at $83.52 and $86.74. A break below support on any of the three would accelerate the bearish momentum. A close above resistance would be the first sign of a reversal.
The OPEC+ meeting on August 2 is the next scheduled catalyst. Until then, the charts are the dominant signal.
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