OpenAI and Amazon are developing hardware to bypass Apple's App Store fees. The shift to agentic AI makes controlling the OS and commerce rails critical.
The smartphone era, defined by Apple’s 2007 launch of the iPhone, is facing a structural pivot. While the iPhone successfully consolidated the internet, music, and communications into a single device, the current shift toward agentic AI is forcing a re-evaluation of the hardware-software stack. The primary risk for incumbents is no longer about which model is the most intelligent, but rather who controls the operating system defaults and the commerce rails that follow.
Consumer behavior is moving away from manual app navigation toward proactive, agent-driven tasks. PYMNTS Intelligence data indicates that while users engage with multiple AI platforms, they rely on a single anchor. Currently, ChatGPT serves as that anchor for most consumers. The device in the user's hand dictates the distribution of these models. Android users are 24 percentage points more likely to use Google Gemini than iOS users, largely because Gemini is pre-integrated into the Android OS. Conversely, iOS users show a strong preference for ChatGPT, which faces no native OS-level competitor on Apple hardware.
This distribution advantage is critical because AI is becoming a utility for household logistics, meal planning, and financial management. As these tasks become more frequent, the "AI that comes to them"—anticipatory, proactive agents—is gaining traction. Among power users, 55% prefer proactive AI, a segment that is currently underserved by existing native OS surfaces.
OpenAI and Amazon are moving to capture this value by bypassing the traditional app-store model. Reports suggest OpenAI is developing a smartphone in collaboration with Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Luxshare, targeting a 2028 production window. The goal is to replace the app-centric home screen with an agent-based interface. This move is a strategic hedge against Apple's "toll bridge" model, where Apple collects a 15% to 30% commission on AI subscription revenue flowing through the App Store. By owning the hardware, OpenAI could potentially route users directly, avoiding the fees that currently make it one of the largest tenants in Apple's ecosystem.
Amazon’s strategy is distinct, focusing on the commerce ecosystem as the primary product. With its $50 billion investment in OpenAI, Amazon is integrating its fulfillment, payment credentials, and real-time inventory with OpenAI’s models. This creates a closed-loop agentic economy where an AI agent can execute purchases on third-party sites using Amazon’s infrastructure. Amazon’s phone, if realized, would serve as a dedicated remote control for this commerce engine, rather than a general-purpose device.
Apple’s current valuation and revenue model are heavily dependent on its Services segment, which reached $31 billion in fiscal Q2 2026. However, this "toll bridge" strategy is under global regulatory assault. Courts in the U.S. and the U.K. are increasingly challenging Apple’s ability to mandate external payment commissions. If these legal pressures force a decoupling of the App Store from payment processing, Apple’s ability to extract rent from AI providers will diminish.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) provides a cautionary tale regarding distribution versus adoption. While Copilot has 15 to 20 million paid enterprise seats, only 36% of provisioned users actively choose it when given a choice. When workers have access to both Copilot and ChatGPT, Copilot’s usage share drops to 8%. This suggests that bundling AI into an OS or enterprise suite does not guarantee loyalty if the model does not meet the user's preference for quality and utility.
| Metric | iOS Users | Android Users |
|---|---|---|
| Active AI Users | 52% | 40% |
| ChatGPT Preference | 88% | 78% |
| Gemini Usage | 49% | 73% |
Apple remains in a tenuous position. It possesses the most AI-engaged user base, yet lacks a native, proactive AI surface that matches the integration of Gemini or the user trust commanded by OpenAI. Apple’s MSFT stock page and broader stock market analysis reflect the tension between its high-margin services revenue and the looming threat of agentic AI platforms that may render the current smartphone interface obsolete. If Apple cannot provide the system-level permissions required for true agentic AI, it risks becoming the modern equivalent of the cable box: a device that remains in the home but is bypassed by the content and services it was meant to deliver. The ultimate winner will be the entity that controls the device, the default agent, and the transaction layer simultaneously.
AI-drafted from named sources and checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Direct quotes must match source text, low-information tables are removed, and thinner or higher-risk stories can be held for manual review.