US Job Miss of 98K in ADP Report Supports Rate-Cut Hopes for Crypto

ADP added 98,000 private-sector jobs in June, falling short of the 110,000–120,000 range economists had expected. May's figure was 122,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% for a fourth straight month, according to the report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its official nonfarm payroll count Friday. Last month's BLS report surprised markets with a 172,000 gain. That move pushed Bitcoin near $62,000 at the time, showing how tightly crypto has become tied to macro data.

The ADP miss shifts expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Market pricing now gives a roughly 70% probability the Fed holds rates steady in July and a higher chance of a September cut, based on CME FedWatch data. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Leisure and hospitality, a key driver of post-pandemic job growth, showed mixed signals in ADP's data, the report said. Fed Chair Powell has said the committee needs more good data on inflation before cutting rates. The gap between ADP's 98,000 and May's BLS 172,000 leaves the market uncertain ahead of Friday's official payroll report. Volatility is likely to persist either way.

ADP itself, the payroll processor, carries an Alpha Score of 53 out of 100 from AlphaScala, a Mixed rating in the Industrials sector.