UK employment rose 147k, wage growth eased to 4.3%. Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed. German ZEW sentiment surged. US ADP release due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Alpha Score of 44 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, moderate sentiment. Based on 2 of 4 signals – score is capped at 75 until remaining data ingests.
Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, with no timeline for reopening. Tehran said any decision to reopen the waterway will depend on security conditions, tying the strait's status to a potential ceasefire. The uncertainty continues to weigh on risk sentiment in forex market analysis.
UK employment data for the three months to May offered a counterpoint. The unemployment rate held at 4.9% and employment rose by 147,000. Total pay growth eased to 4.3%, a sign that wage pressures are moderating. Sterling held near session highs against the dollar after the release. The market reaction was muted. The data did not shift interest rate expectations.
German ZEW economic sentiment jumped to 26.3 from 10.5, well above forecasts. The survey noted that uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and oil prices still poses a significant risk to the outlook despite the improving sentiment.
Later today the US ADP employment change report is due. The release drew attention when it first appeared in October 2025. The market's focus on it waned once the labour market stabilised. The ADP report is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET.
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