Russia's Manpower Crunch: Three Scenarios for the War's End

The math on Russia's eastern front is shifting. British intelligence estimates put Russian dead above half a million. Wounded may be three times that number. Since January, the Kremlin has been losing more soldiers than it can recruit through its volunteer system. The 2022 partial mobilization was deeply unpopular. Moscow has not repeated it.

That creates a three-way fork. Accorde Investment Director Gábor Gönczi, writing on the Forbes Hungary platform, lays out the scenarios. The Kremlin can order a second mobilization. That would boost frontline numbers. It would risk social unrest in cities that have so far felt little of the war. Or it can accept a slower offensive, making a negotiated settlement more likely – especially with Washington pushing for one. The third scenario: escalate first to negotiate from a stronger position, then de-escalate.

"When Putin's popularity has dropped in the past, it has consistently been followed by an external conflict," Gönczi wrote. Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, the full-scale invasion in 2022. His model assigns weight to the escalation-then-de-escalation path.

Ukraine's technology gap is closing, mainly through drones. Russian breakthroughs on the front line have stalled. Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure are becoming more visible. Fuel queues at gas stations near St. Petersburg are a small inconvenience compared to what a full mobilization would bring. They are a visible one.

The Levada Center, an independent pollster, puts support for continuing the war below 25%. That is down from a peak near 50% in 2023. The decline tracks the rising casualty count and the growing economic cost. Russia's oil and gas revenue is under pressure from lower global prices – Brent is near $70 – and from the expected reinstatement of U.S. sanctions waivers that had temporarily eased the discount on Russian crude.

Gönczi's framework for the post-war period draws on two concepts. The "bastion state" theory holds that NATO's eastern flank countries such as Poland and Romania receive outsized political and military support because they buffer the alliance from authoritarian neighbors. The Baltic states are also part of that framework. The "garrison state" theory extends that logic to Ukraine itself: a forward outpost that, with security guarantees and economic reforms, could become Europe's next growth story. A functioning capital market would be part of that.

Ukraine has lost about 20% of its territory. Those regions were predominantly Russian-speaking and politically aligned with Moscow. The remaining country is likely to be more unified and more Western-oriented. Reconstruction will require enormous capital. Gönczi sees that as a generational opportunity for investors willing to look past the immediate uncertainty.

For U.S. investors, the uncertainty has kept a bid on defense stocks and a lid on consumer tech names like Apple (AAPL). "If Ukraine can implement the reforms of the forward-outpost model after the war, it could easily become Europe's next economic success story," Gönczi wrote.