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MBA Warns Housing Demand May Cool as Demographics Shift
The Mortgage Bankers Association warns that demographic shifts could cool housing demand by 2025–2035, potentially ending the chronic shortage if construction stays elevated.
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The Mortgage Bankers Association warned that demographic shifts could cool housing demand over the next decade, potentially ending the chronic supply shortage that has defined the U.S. housing market since the pandemic.
The MBA's latest forecast points to an aging population and a peak in millennial-driven demand. If homebuilders maintain current construction levels, supply could catch up with demand by 2025–2035, the trade group said.
The warning marks a sharp turn from the narrative that has dominated housing for years. A shortage of roughly 3–4 million homes has pushed prices and rents higher, making homeownership less affordable for many. Builders have struggled to close the gap due to labor constraints and zoning restrictions.
Now the demographic boost that lifted demand may be fading. The largest cohort of millennials has already formed households. Younger generations are smaller and face affordability hurdles that delay household formation. At the same time, baby boomers are aging and may begin to downsize, freeing up inventory.