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The dollar holds gains after Fed Chair signals easing inflation risks. Goldman Sachs expects rates on hold through 2026, supporting USD yield advantage. Next focus: March dot plot.
Fed's Warsh, Lagarde, Bailey, Macklem abandon forward guidance at Sintra. NFP now critical as data replaces central bank signals. Read the transmission.
GBP rose to 1.3287 after Bailey's dovish comments. The pair is testing 1.3300 with momentum. A breakout above targets 1.3350; failure risks a drop to 1.3200.
Nagahama, a member of Takaichi's economic panel, expects BOJ to hike by year-end but urges slower pace, citing relative yen weakness. The panel has no direct sway over BOJ decisions.
GBP/EUR touched a one-year high above €1.1627 after softer Eurozone inflation trimmed ECB tightening expectations. The next catalyst is UK GDP data.
June payrolls expected at 110K. A hot print pushes September hike odds toward certainty; a miss revives pause bets. Yen intervention risk rises above 145.
WTI crude bounced off $68.78 support, holding above $67.81. NatGas remains in an ascending channel above $3.10, targeting $3.26. The weekly EIA storage report Thursday will test the trend.
WTI crude slipped below $72.50 as the dollar firmed ahead of Friday's NFP. A bearish channel at $70.85 caps any bounce, with support at $68.50 below.
US June payrolls expected at 110k, down from 172k. CBA flags upside risk to USD/JPY on a beat. Unemployment steady at 4.3%. Data due Thursday.
Dollar holds at 104.20 as traders focus on Friday's payrolls report. Yen intervention jitters keep USD/JPY capped near 38-year lows. Euro, sterling steady. Payrolls set the next catalyst.
Rupee fell 0.6% to 95.24, the steepest drop in two weeks. Dollar strength drove the move, with importers facing higher costs and exporters gaining. RBI intervention appears limited.
Natural gas presses against trendline support at $3.16. A break below confirms failure; a hold targets $3.40 and the 200-day moving average. Weekly storage report due Thursday.
The dollar gained broadly after ISM Prices Paid fell sharply and four central bankers in Sintra warned inflation is not defeated. EURUSD dropped to 1.1378. Sterling was the only major to beat the greenback. Friday's payrolls are the next test.
Crude settled at $68.58, the weakest since Feb 27 before the Iran conflict began. Technical resistance at $70.04 and $71.65 must be reclaimed to shift the downtrend.
Mexico's economy minister signals willingness to address US concerns on foreign independence, potentially easing Section 232 tariff risks for the peso and CAD.
Dollar's monthly close above 38.2% Fib keeps recovery intact. Palladium reclaims key support, needs close above 1244. Copper holds broken channel. Confirmation is the missing piece.
A US official said the administration will not renew the USMCA in its current form, citing trade deficits. Talks with Mexico and Canada continue as the agreement remains in force.
The ISM manufacturing prices index plunged to 73.0 from 82.1, the steepest drop since July 2022, reinforcing evidence that cost pressures are easing across the factory sector.
US construction spending rose 0.1% in May, matching forecasts, as residential posted a 0.3% gain while April was revised down. The flat print keeps the Fed's September rate cut door open but does not force action.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 in June from 55.7 in May, still in expansion. Williamson noted the index moved lower from a 49-month high, signaling slowing growth.
Natural gas stalls as a short-lived U.S. heatwave fades. The 200-day EMA and the $3.00–$3.50 band define the range. No catalyst yet for a breakout.
Eurozone inflation slowed more than expected in June, lowering the odds of further ECB tightening and opening the door to rate-cut bets in early 2025. The Dollar held firm ahead of payrolls.
Lagarde said she regrets being bound by forward guidance as the ECB shifts toward data-dependent decisions. BOE's Bailey and BOC's Macklem also spoke, with each striking a cautious tone on the next rate move.
JP Morgan analysts see the pound holding up as rate expectations support GBP. The bank warns that political uncertainty could weigh, but the near-term outlook remains constructive.
Crude at $68.22, lowest since pre-Iran conflict, as OPEC+ likely to approve 188k bpd August hike. Sunday's meeting and $70.13 resistance are key. Gasoline at $3.84 remains elevated.
Private sector added 98k jobs in June, below 118k consensus. Wage growth for job stayers held at 4.4%, while job changers saw 6.6%. Focus shifts to Thursday's NFP.
Eurozone inflation fell to 2.8% in June, below forecasts and down from 3.2% in May. Core inflation also missed expectations at 2.4%.
EUR/USD held near $1.14 after German and French inflation eased, giving the ECB room to hold rates in September. Focus turns to eurozone CPI on Friday.
The rupee fell to 95.24 against the dollar, its weakest in three weeks, as Asian currencies slid on hawkish Fed signals and Iran war caution. RBI intervened near 95.25.
US employers cut 45,489 jobs in June, 53% fewer than May. AI drove 14,029 layoffs, and tech accounted for a third of the year's total through June.