Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Italy's trade surplus widened to €4.23 billion in June as exports rose 1.6% month on month, driven by a 6.7% jump in EU shipments. Import prices fell 1.3% m/m.
The Treasury Secretary wants the Fed to raise the cap on its idle foreign repo facility as Japan defends the yen. Critics say it would bypass financial limits.
RBA left cash rate at 4.35% and maintained a tightening bias. New forecasts lowered near-term inflation while raising the 2027 outlook. The Australian dollar lacked a clear directional signal.
The NAB survey points to an economy holding up better than feared but still operating under the shadow of elevated uncertainty, a combination that gives the RBA little reason to shift from its expecte
Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack says rates at 3.50-3.75% are not restrictive enough and multiple hikes may be needed. Wednesday's CPI print will test her hawkish stance.
Luxon called National's caucus to Wellington Wednesday after leadership talk swirled. NZD trade stayed quiet; no policy outcome is at stake yet.
Confidence hit a 21-month high, but BRC retail sales slowed to 1.3% from 1.9%. The gap between sentiment and spending sets up the next sterling and gilt move.
Singapore's Q2 GDP grew 5.9% y/y, beating expectations. First-half growth hit 6.1%. The government raised its 2026 NODX forecast to 14-16% from 3-5% on AI demand.
Natural gas tests the $2.81 pivot as a falling flag pattern hangs in the balance. A break above could open a run to $3.03 — or rejection.
WTI and Brent rally after U.S.-Iran talks fail; Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Natural gas gains on hot weather demand. WTI tests $82 resistance.
Crude oil rose Monday as WTI and Brent broke above their 200-day moving averages amid Middle East tensions. Traders eye Wednesday's EIA inventory report as the next catalyst.
Joint US-Japan intervention imposed a speed limit on yen depreciation but didn't reverse it. Tuesday's holiday and Wednesday's US CPI will test whether fundamentals finally align with official action.
Dollar pushes toward JPY159 as market doubts BOJ intervention; Middle East tensions lift oil. Euro, sterling gain on soft US jobs data. Gold rallies 7.3%.
The dollar hit a seven-week low after July payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000 and prior months were revised sharply lower. Futures repriced tightening odds lower, while White House pressure on the Fed added to headwinds. Gold surged past $4,300.
Payrolls fell 23,000 in July, trimming Fed hike bets. Focus shifts to the RBA statement and SoMP, where a downward revision could weigh on the AUD.
NFP fell 23k with deep revisions, yet unemployment dropped to 4.1%. The mixed signal leaves the Fed in a bind and sets up Thursday's Norges Bank decision.
BoJ's July opinions reveal a shift from lifting inflation to preventing overshoot, with members flagging risk of rapid hikes. The next meeting in September will test whether hawkish signals become action.
Iran's fee demands and vessel restrictions crushed Hormuz deal hopes, sending Brent above its 50-day MA. Citi and Goldman raised near-term forecasts as storage drawdowns mount.
September natural gas bounced above $2.61 on stronger LNG feedgas and hot weather, but storage at 6.7% above the five-year average keeps sellers in control. The next EIA storage report is the test.
July payrolls contracted 23K, revisions cut 103K, but Brent at $82.37 keeps the Fed from fully embracing a hold. 10-year yield holds 4.60, DXY defends 99.41, equities restrained.
The dollar index sits near a two-month low after the July jobs miss. CPI and PPI forecasts run soft, keeping Fed September hike odds near 44%.
Wholesale sales rose 2.7% in June, retail advanced 0.4%, and home resales gained. Q2 GDP tracking likely well above 2.2%. Fed faces a harder inflation trade-off ahead of Wednesday's CPI print.
Oil traders are waiting for the results of negotiations between Iran and Oman.
WTI and Brent bounced from the 200-week EMA as geopolitical headlines over the Strait of Hormuz dominated trading. The $70 level is now support.
Natural gas prices slipped to a four-week low as mild weather cut demand and storage builds exceeded forecasts. The $1.90 support level is in focus with the next EIA report due Thursday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a loss of 23,000 jobs in July, far below the 85,000 consensus, pushing the dollar lower and sending gold above $4,350.
Oil fell to $80 after Iran and Oman agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reversing earlier war-driven spikes. PMIs show resilient growth in the US and Asia ex-China, while Europe lags.
WTI crude gapped higher Monday, touched the 200-day EMA, then reversed. Middle East headlines drive the market, Chris said. Support at $70, resistance at $85. Weekend gap risk.
Employment surged five times expectations, with full-time jobs up 38.6K and part-time up 36.6K. Wage growth slowed to 3.0% y/y, easing pressure on the Bank of Canada.
The dollar posted its best day in two weeks. Brent crude topped $80. USD/JPY neared 160. The US jobs report, due Friday, is expected to show 80,000 new jobs.