
GBP/EUR touched a one-year high above €1.1627 after softer Eurozone inflation trimmed ECB tightening expectations. The next catalyst is UK GDP data.
The pound climbed to its strongest level against the euro in a year on Wednesday. German bund yields dropped and the euro slid after Eurozone consumer-price growth came in softer than economists had anticipated. At 4 p.m. in London, the single currency bought €1.1627, up 0.2% on the day. It touched €1.1635 earlier, the highest since June 2023.
The trigger was a weaker-than-expected inflation print for the bloc. Eurostat reported annual CPI slowed to 2.1% in September from 2.3%, undershooting the consensus call for 2.3%. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items, fell to 2.7% from 2.8%, also below forecasts. The data arrived one day before European Central Bank policymakers meet to set rates.
The inflation miss prompted traders to push back expectations for further ECB tightening. Money markets reduced the probability of a rate increase at the December meeting to roughly 25%, down from 40% before the release. By contrast, Bank of England rate expectations have been more resilient. UK services inflation printed at 5.2% in August, well above the ECB's equivalent reading. That divergence in policy expectations has been the main driver of the pound's recent outperformance, traders said.
GBP/EUR had already been pushing higher since August, when the eurozone economy showed signs of a sharper slowdown. The pair broke above the €1.1600 resistance level last week and held it before the inflation data. A close above €1.1635 opens the path toward €1.1700, the next area on the charts, according to a London-based currency strategist at a regional bank. On the downside, the 200-day moving average near €1.1480 marks the first support.
The euro's weakness extended across the board. The common currency fell 0.3% against the dollar to $1.0480. Against the yen, it slid to the lowest since early September. The moves reflected a broad reassessment of the ECB's ability to keep tightening as the eurozone economy loses momentum, the strategist said.
For traders tracking the pound, the next key input is UK GDP data due at the end of the week. A strong reading would reinforce the case for the Bank of England to hold rates higher for longer, supporting sterling. A miss would test the euro's resilience but is unlikely to reverse the broader trend, the strategist said.
The pound held near the day's highs into the close, with thin liquidity ahead of the ECB decision Thursday. For context on the dollar side of the pound's moves, see the GBP/USD profile.
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