Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
The greenback climbed to 99.50 after Iran struck near Bandar Abbas. A break above 100 opens a path to 100.50 if escalation continues.
The New Zealand dollar fell after the budget announcement as traders weighed fiscal expansion risks for RBNZ policy. The kiwi dropped across the board, with the next catalyst being the July RBNZ meeting.
The IRGC threat resets geopolitical risk pricing for USD/JPY and oil-linked pairs as traders watch for kinetic escalation versus de-escalation.
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signals policy well positioned as inflation risks persist from Middle East conflict. Dollar supported by steady rate path; EUR/USD vulnerable to widening US-ECB gap.
BoJ's Katayama links sustained inflation to wage growth; USD/JPY policy path gets a new variable. Next wage data will test the dovish stance.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook warns inflation risks are rising and she is prepared to hike if disinflation delays. The macro transmission path through USD, yields, and risk assets: positioning implications.
Japan's yen hits four-week low against a firmer dollar. Strait of Hormuz tensions overwhelm intervention risk. The next decision point is US PCE.
ECB's Philip Lane warns second-round effects from energy shock will persist even after peace deal, complicating the rate path and growth outlook for EUR/USD.
Capex jumps 6.5% on data centre imports. Household spending plunges 1.1%. The RBA faces a mixed picture that undermines the hawkish case for AUD.
Geopolitical risk boosts the dollar against the yen, widening rate differentials and raising intervention odds ahead of the next US CPI print.
USD/CAD lowest since April 13 as safe-haven dollar overwhelms oil support. Next catalysts: US inflation data and Bank of Canada policy stance.
Dollar holds one-week high after U.S. strikes in Iran. Yen weakens toward the 152 intervention zone as the rate gap overshadows safe-haven flows.
Asian currencies face a double hit from a fresh US military strike in Iran and looming US inflation data that could widen rate differentials. The next catalyst is the CPI print and further escalation risks.
AUD/USD near weekly low as RBA hike bets fade and Middle East tensions boost the safe-haven USD. Next catalyst is the RBA policy decision.
The Bank of Korea held rates at 2.5%, matching forecasts. The wide US-Korea rate differential keeps the won structurally weak. Next catalyst is the BoK's future stance.
BOK holds rate as expected but weaker won and rising inflation point to a hike ahead. The November CPI print and won-dollar level are the next triggers.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane warns persistent wage and margin dynamics will keep core inflation elevated after energy shocks fade. Impact on EUR/USD rate differentials and the next policy decision.
The yen has given back half its intervention gains as the US-Japan rate differential keeps carry trades profitable. The next test is US CPI on May 15.
GBP/USD ignores US core PCE data as traders await Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech. His tone on rate cut timing will determine whether cable breaks 1.2600 or falls below 1.2500.
RBNZ official says weaker demand from higher energy costs is the key variable for how high rates go. NZD traders face two-way risk until demand data settles the debate.
RBNZ's Breman discussed a rate hike while voting to hold. The gap between hawkish talk and dovish action creates a data-dependent setup for NZD/USD. Next inflation report is key.
Conflicting U.S.-Iran signals and pre-PCE caution keep the dollar flat. Thursday's inflation print is the next catalyst that could break the stalemate for the greenback.
Fed Governor Cook warns a rate hike is possible if inflation does not ease, challenging the market's cut narrative. Dollar and yields rise on the hawkish repricing.
Stagflationary revision locks Banxico into a rate hold, threatens the MXN carry advantage. Next policy decision and inflation data will set the direction for USDMXN.
Conflicting Iran deal headlines from state TV and White House denial sent dollar whipsawing. Resilient ADP data reinforces Fed's no-cut stance, limiting downside.
BNY Mellon reports hawkish APAC policy surprises have not lifted front-end yields. The disconnect limits currency tailwinds and keeps USD dominance intact. Next test: upcoming CPI data from Australia and New Zealand.
TD Securities flags the tension between strong US consumer confidence and Iran oil risks. The dollar's direction hinges on which force breaks first.
Conflicting headlines reverse dollar's earlier slide as uncertainty boosts safe-haven demand. Oil supply expectations also support the greenback. Clarity from officials is the next catalyst.
BNY notes EM food producers gaining as inflation persists. The trade benefits from pricing power and real-asset buffer; next CPI data from Brazil, India, Mexico will test momentum.
Commerzbank flags gradual Gulf recovery and US drilling restraint as oil supply factors. The view supports CAD, NOK if crude holds.