Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
RBI's concessional forex swap reduces bank funding costs and supports the rupee. The Nifty Bank index rose 1.2%. Next catalyst: auction calendar and swap rate spread.
China May exports topped forecasts on Gulf-related front-loading and AI chip demand. The better market read focuses on the Fed policy path and the June PMI test.
China's May trade surplus surged to $105.43B, imports rose 27.4%. The composition raises questions about sustainability and trade friction risks. June data is the next test.
NAB Business Confidence improved 9 points to -14 in May as inflation pressures eased. Purchase cost growth halved to 2.6%. The RBA's July meeting now sets the AUD direction.
Westpac consumer sentiment index falls 2.9% to 80.6, near record lows. The RBA faces a tough choice: pause next week or keep tightening. AUD positioning and the Q2 CPI print will determine the next move.
The dollar holds near a two-month high as the Iran-Israel truce collapse keeps oil premiums intact and Fed rate hike bets alive. DXY tests 106.50 resistance.
China's May auto NEV share hit 62.9% as oil prices crushed petrol demand. The structural shift accelerates, with implications for oil demand forecasts and global auto competition.
Natural gas tests $3.10 neckline as double top builds. A breakdown would lower inflation expectations, shifting Fed rate path and dollar direction. Next catalyst: weekly EIA storage report.
Friday's payrolls beat reinforced the higher-for-longer Fed narrative. The CPI print will either validate that signal or inject new uncertainty. Dollar positioning is already skewed long.
Brent oil's short-lived rally above $98 failed as Iran de-escalated and OPEC+ added supply. The daily cloud base at $93.14 is now the next decision point for bears.
BoE holds Bank Rate at June meeting. MPC vote split widens as Bailey's dovish stance clashes with Greene's hawkish inflation warnings. EUR/GBP target 0.89.
ETI drop to 107.01 flags losing labor momentum beneath May's strong payrolls. This leading indicator shift pressures dollar yield support. Watch for June confirmation.
Dollar unwinds after Israel halts strikes. CPI looms as the next catalyst for rates, equities, and crypto. AlphaScala breaks down the chain.
Brent stays above $90 after Iran's conditional ceasefire. Wednesday's US CPI will test whether the relief rally can hold or hot inflation reignites Dollar demand.
Punjab National Bank's CEO projects $35-40 billion in foreign currency deposits under RBI's new scheme. The inflow could support the rupee if subscription data validates the estimate.
Elevated crude oil and rising US Treasury yields are pushing the rupee lower. Traders should track RBI intervention and the next policy meeting for clues on the currency's path.
Strong US labor data and Middle East tensions push the dollar above $100 for the first time since April. Overbought technicals suggest caution on chasing the breakout.
GBP/USD nears two-month low as markets price higher Fed rates and Middle East risk. The next catalyst for sterling is US inflation data and the Bank of England's policy path.
Sentix confidence rose to -13.4 in June, above the -13.8 consensus. The inflation barometer at -38 keeps ECB rate hike expectations intact. Germany's weakness caps euro upside.
Eurozone Sentix -13.4 beats -14.6 forecast. Energy inflation warning clouds ECB decision, leaving EUR/USD rangebound until June 6.
Iran's IRGC hit a Haifa petrochemical plant after Israeli strikes on Mahshahr. Oil surged. Diplomatic talks at risk. Next catalyst: Israeli response.
Iran-Israel escalation closes Strait of Hormuz, oil eyes $100. Nasdaq drops 1,450 points. CPI Wednesday decides if the Fed hikes in October.
German industrial orders miss -3.8% vs -2.0% expected in April. The stockpiling impulse from March fades. Consumer goods dive 6.7%. Euro faces ECB headwinds.
Vietnam's deputy governor signals fiscal push to hit growth target, reducing chance of SBV rate cuts. Watch VND and bond issuance for the next catalyst.
BoE's Taylor says rates are restrictive and sees no hike needed despite Iran war inflation. The divergence with the Fed's reaction function sets up GBP/USD volatility.
Core CPI at 3.0% or higher locks in Fed hike expectations, while ECB growth projections and BoC recession risk compound the dollar's direction.
Speculative yen shorts hit record as USD/JPY clears 160. USD net-long at 8-week high. AUD nears net-short flip. Next catalyst: March CPI and MOF intervention.
Blowout US jobs data pushes Fed hike bets to material level, lifting dollar to two-month peak. Yen tests 160 intervention zone. Next catalyst: Wednesday's CPI print.
Strong jobs data pushes yields higher. This week's US CPI, ECB and BoJ decisions will test the AI rally's ability to hold above a 4.5% yield threshold.
Cushing at 22.4M barrels and U.S. exports at record 5.6M bpd create a hair-trigger market. The next headline on Middle East could reverse Friday's move fast.