Yen Slides to Four-Week Low as Hormuz Risk Overrides BOJ Cap

USD/JPY now trades at levels that have previously triggered verbal intervention from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. The key question is whether the BOJ will step in while the catalyst is external and transient. Tokyo has historically preferred to intervene when yen moves are disorderly and driven by speculators, not when the move reflects a genuine shift in relative fundamentals. A Hormuz-driven dollar rally is harder to label as speculative excess.

Traders should watch for two signals. First, any escalation in Hormuz – a confirmed tanker incident or US military deployment – would likely push USD/JPY toward 153, where intervention becomes more probable. Second, the US core PCE print due next week will either reinforce or weaken the dollar bid. A hot PCE reading would give the Fed cover to hold rates higher for longer, further pressuring the yen. A soft reading would relieve some of the upward pressure on USD/JPY and give Tokyo a window to hold fire.

Next Catalyst: US PCE and Gulf Escalation

The yen’s four-week low is not a simple repeat of the 2022 intervention cycle. Back then, the BOJ acted after a rapid, speculative run-up. Today, the driver is geopolitical and the dollar strength is broad-based. The yen is not alone: the euro, sterling, and emerging-market currencies are also losing ground to the greenback. That breadth makes it harder for Japan to justify unilateral action.

For a deeper look at how rate differentials and safe-haven flows interact, see our forex market analysis and the USD/JPY profile. The next concrete catalyst is the US PCE release on May 31. Until then, USD/JPY remains in a zone where every tick higher raises the probability of a BOJ response, the trigger for that response is now tied to events in the Gulf, not just the level on the screen.