Fed's Cook Signals Rate Hike Preparedness as Inflation Risks Mount

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook told a Stanford University policy forum that inflation risks are tilted to the upside and that she is prepared to raise rates if disinflation does not appear in a timely manner. Her remarks go further than recent commentary from Chair Jerome Powell, who has emphasized patience. Cook explicitly warned that after more than five years of inflation running above the 2% target, the danger of inflation expectations becoming embedded is increasing.

The simple read is that the Fed is now openly discussing rate hikes again. The better market read focuses on the transmission: higher terminal rate expectations tighten financial conditions without a single basis point of actual tightening. If the market reprices the Fed funds futures curve to include a risk of a hike, the dollar strengthens, front-end yields rise, and growth-sensitive assets face a valuation reset.

Inflation Drivers: Tariffs, Iran, and AI

Cook cited four specific sources of renewed price pressures: tariffs, the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and surging AI-related investment. She pointed to rising energy and fertilizer costs as well as stronger demand for chips, software, and construction workers linked to the rapid expansion of AI data centers. Each of these channels is supply-side or demand-driven, and none responds quickly to Fed rate cuts. That makes the disinflation path less certain and increases the odds that the Fed will need to lean against the wind.

The acknowledgment of AI investment as a distinct inflation driver is new. It signals that the Fed sees the capital expenditure boom in data centers and semiconductor fabrication as adding to labor demand and materials costs, not just as a productivity story. This creates a direct link between tech-sector capex and monetary policy risk.

The Transmission: Yields, Dollar, and Risk Appetite

A repricing of rate-hike risk first hits the short-end of the Treasury curve. Two-year yields, which are most sensitive to Fed expectations, are the immediate conduit. Higher two-year yields pull up the dollar through the interest-rate differential channel. A stronger dollar then weighs on commodity prices, emerging-market currencies, and USD-denominated debt. For equity markets, the growth-stock segments that depend on low discount rates–particularly unprofitable tech and biotech–become the most exposed.

Cook explicitly defended her preference for holding rates steady “from a risk-management perspective.” That language suggests she does not see an immediate need to hike. The condition she set is a failure of disinflation to appear “in a timely manner.” Markets now have a concrete milestone: if the next few monthly CPI or PCE prints do not show meaningful deceleration, the probability of a hike will rise above zero for the first time in this cycle.

Next Decision Point

The next formal policy update from the Fed is the May FOMC meeting. Between now and then, the April CPI release and the March PCE data will test Cook’s framework. A hot inflation reading would trigger a repricing that strengthens the dollar and pushes front-end yields toward cycle highs. The risk for forex market analysis is that USD longs become crowded again, leaving the dollar vulnerable if data softens. Traders should watch whether the two-year yield breaks above the 5.0% level as the key signal for a sustained divergence in monetary expectations.