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Crude premiums widen as Middle East tensions boost dollar; Fed minutes at 1800 GMT are the next catalyst for rate repricing and USD direction.
Oil surged 6% after Trump scrapped the Iran deal. Yields rose, stocks fell, and gold slid. Trump also threatened to cut trade ties with Spain, deepening the risk-off.
US strikes on Iran and suspension of oil licenses sent Brent up 6%. The dollar rallied as safe-haven demand rose and the market priced in a higher chance of two Fed rate hikes in 2026.
Oil spikes 8% after Trump says the Iran MOU is over and he won't engage. Hawkish repricing hits rates and the dollar as risk-off sweeps FX and equities.
The dollar drifted Monday as the market marked time before the Fed's March meeting minutes. USD/JPY stalled near 162; USD/CAD hugged a 1.4140–1.4250 band. The release at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday may reset the tone.
The dollar gained as safe-haven demand rose on renewed Middle East tensions. The New Zealand dollar strengthened after the central bank raised rates and signaled more tightening ahead.
The rupee slipped after crude jumped 3% this week. Foreign portfolio inflows and likely RBI intervention kept the fall contained. IT stocks gain, banks face mixed impact.
Iran's state media claims a strike on a US base in Bahrain, warns of more attacks if US repeats strikes. Strait of Hormuz closure escalates oil and forex risk.
China will allow Zhejiang Petroleum and other refiners to resume fuel exports for the first time in three months, after Iran rushed 40-50 million barrels of oil to China.
Crude extends gains after US strikes on Iran; dollar at one-week high. RBNZ hikes 25bps, kiwi firms. Asia equities mixed. OpenAI export restrictions lifted.
The RBNZ raised rates by 25bp to 2.50% in a unanimous vote, but the MPC split on inflation risks. The next CPI print on July 16 will determine whether the hawks or the balanced-risk camp set the pace for further hikes.
RBA's Hunter warns supply shocks still require a policy response if persistent. The board remains data-dependent, not on autopilot for cuts.
BoJ's Asada said he needs demand-driven inflation, not cost-push, before another rate hike. His dissent shows internal division, keeping yen under pressure against the dollar. Next BoJ meeting in July is key.
The central bank's sell-buy swaps absorbed ₹15,000 crore from the banking system this week, three traders said, blunting the rupee's slide without cutting rates.
The dollar rallied to a one-week high after US strikes on Iran boosted safe-haven demand. Oil jumped, risk assets fell. Here's the macro transmission chain.
Crédit Agricole warns markets are too confident on an RBNZ rate hike, with 70% probability priced. A hold could trigger a knee-jerk NZD dip.
Goldman Sachs lowered EUR/USD targets to 1.12 on a six- and twelve-month view, citing a rebuilding dollar support base and ECB rate cut risks. US jobs data Friday is next.
USD/JPY holds near 162 after a strong JGB auction eased some fiscal fears. Rabobank says the yen's improvement is encouraging, yet fiscal doubts remain. The BoJ's July meeting is the next test.
WTI and Brent jumped after reports of attacks on a Qatari LNG ship and a Saudi tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Here's the transmission to rates and the dollar.
Tuesday's 2.6% surge pushed WTI back above $73, with traders watching for further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.
Iran says it controls Strait of Hormuz traffic as UKMTO raises threat level to severe. WTI crude surged $1.96 to $70.56, the biggest single-day gain in weeks.
Sterling held near $1.27 after the Bank of England's Financial Stability Report flagged risks from AI and corporate debt. The rate outlook stayed unchanged.
WTI crude filled the Iran gap at $70 as Brent bounced from the same level. Options open interest creates a floor and ceiling, pinning both benchmarks in a range.
Natural gas stalled near the 200-day EMA as a summer heat wave failed to break the $3.50 ceiling. Oversupply keeps the range intact, pointing to a sell-the-rally trade.
Currency markets drift ahead of RBNZ and US CPI. Inside the Fed, a philosophical split over forward guidance emerges between Chair Warsh and Governor Waller. The July 12 CPI print will test both the rate path and the Fed's communication style.
Every major bank surveyed expects GBP/NZD to fall from 2.35 to between 2.09 and 2.27 over 12-18 months. Rate differentials and NZ terms of trade drive the view. Next test: RBNZ August decision.
German IP and UK housing data beat forecasts, yet ECB's Panetta warned on uncertainty. A tanker was damaged near Oman, reviving oil supply risks. Euro and sterling held tight bands.
The rupee closed at 94.96, its best day in three weeks, after RBI NDF dollar sales squeezed short positions. Traders said the move was intervention-led, with the dollar index flat on the day.
A second attack on a Saudi tanker near the Strait of Hormuz shows Iran is escalating its campaign, threatening oil flows and global risk sentiment.
ECB's Panetta says the Eurozone outlook is too uncertain for a predetermined rate path, flagging geopolitical and energy risks. The bank's data-dependent stance leaves September open.