Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Treasury will double long-dated buybacks to at least $4 billion starting Sept. 9, pulling the 30-year yield from above 5.33% back below 5.20% and removing a key support for the greenback.
A three-day tariff delay on Canada lifts the loonie. The dollar stays soft against G10 peers. Oil rallies on UAE-Iran tensions. FOMC minutes due.
The three-day pause on Trump's 50% tariff removes an immediate shock, but CAD's muted rally and unresolved scope keep the trade reset narrative in doubt.
Hormuz risks keep oil supported as Iraq plans alternative exports. WTI holds above $83.79, Brent above $90.17. Natural gas tests $2.78 resistance.
UK CPI expected to hit 2.9% on higher energy costs. Services inflation likely stayed sticky at 3.4%. Markets see a 78% chance of no BOE move in September.
Hauser's conditional warning on inflation and three upside risks, from oil to AI, sets up a clear test for upcoming data.
Annual wage growth slipped to 3.2% as private-sector pay moderated, reducing the case for further RBA rate hikes from the labor-cost side. Public-sector wages still firm.
Australia's wage price index rose 0.8% in Q2, matching forecasts. The 3.2% annual rate keeps the RBA on hold, with the real test coming in Q4 after the minimum wage hike feeds through.
Carney and Trump spoke again Tuesday as Canada and the US race to avoid new 50% tariffs. Auto tariff cuts to 15% are under discussion but industry says the math still doesn't work.
Nymex natural gas rallied 3.1% on hotter weather forecasts, but 111.6 Bcf/day production and a storage surplus cap the upside. Thursday’s EIA report decides whether the heat is real.
The loonie bounced late in the session after a Politico report said Trump may grant Canada a tariff reprieve, reversing earlier losses triggered by weak housing starts and a firm deadline.
Trump must decide by midnight whether to accept an interim trade deal with Canada or impose 50% tariffs. The Canadian dollar jumped on the Politico report.
Natural gas holds a $2.60 to $2.80 range as massive storage inventories cap any rally. The front-month contract bounced from support Tuesday but faces weak summer demand and no supply shock.
Brent cleared $90 as Iran tensions escalate. Bond yields are rising, and the US 10-year at 4.75% is the next test for whether the oil shock becomes a broader rates shock. AUD leads, CHF lags.
Oil surged to $92 as Iran ceasefire expired and tanker was seized in Strait of Hormuz, boosting the dollar. Fed rate-hike odds climb to 70% as supply disruption looks structural, traders said.
Brent crude above $91 after US-Iran pact expires. Global yields surge, 30-year Treasury hits 2007 level. China data weakens, equities mixed. NOK gains on oil and lower Fed rate-hike expectations.
WTI crude closed at $84.96, Brent at $92.81 as only three vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Technical breakouts target $100 if shipping squeeze persists.
Central banks and government entities sold $70 billion in Treasuries in June. Japan cut by $26 billion, likely pre-positioning for yen intervention. China and Hong Kong shed $42 billion.
The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.321%, its highest since 2007, as foreign holdings fell to $9.299 trillion in June. ING says the heavy tone has further to run.
Westpac's consumer index jumped 6% to 88.9 after the RBA's Aug. 11 hold. The gain was mortgage-led, and 59% of households still expect higher rates.
China's nine-department plan targets underpenetrated county markets with a 'one license, multiple locations' rule to cut chain-expansion costs and boost brand access.
The US deficit topped $1.8T in 10 months, the dollar slumped, and China's offshore tax crackdown pushed $1.2B into gold ETFs in two weeks. Gold cleared $4,400.
WTI crude topped $84.00 and Brent neared $91.00 after President Trump said he is in no hurry for an Iran deal. Natural gas fell on mild weather.
Natural gas slips again, testing the $2.65 floor as mild US weather kills demand. A seasonal supply glut keeps the September contract limping with no catalyst in sight.
Iran military rhetoric pushed WTI toward $93 measured-move target. Brent threatens $90 as Strait of Hormuz risk keeps crude headline-driven with no fundamental driver.
Natural gas futures gapped lower Monday as cooler forecasts removed demand support. Record production and LNG maintenance keep supply ample. Storage surplus grows.
July retail sales missed estimates by 0.7 percentage points, slashing September Fed hike odds to 31%. USDJPY bears pushed away from 160 as hedge funds halved yen shorts.
Dollar bears hold the edge as markets digest weaker US data. Wednesday's FOMC minutes and Brent's failure to break $90 despite the Hormuz collapse are the next tests.
July industrial output rose 4.5%, retail sales just 0.6%, missing forecasts. Property investment plunged 19.2%. PBOC manages yuan pace as exports become key growth driver.
Kpler data shows just five vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, compared with 31 the prior week. Iran refuses talks. IEA cuts demand forecasts while LNG supply tightens.