
Tuesday's 2.6% surge pushed WTI back above $73, with traders watching for further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.
Crude oil futures rose more than 2.5% on Tuesday, extending a recovery from the prior week's lows. The move followed reports that commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz came under attack, reviving fears about supply from the region's busiest shipping lane.
The Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of the world's oil. A similar incident in late May triggered a 2.85% jump in WTI, as Oil Jumps 2.85% After UKMTO Raises Hormuz Threat to Severe reported. That parallel was not lost on traders, who said the latest attack suggests the threat is not isolated.
The price action broke a pattern that had held for weeks. WTI had been stuck between $70 and $73 since early June, with options activity capping gains near the upper end, as WTI and Brent Settle Into Summer Range, Options Cap Action noted. Tuesday's move pushed the contract above $73, a level that had been resistance since mid-June.
Trading volumes picked up as the news spread, multiple traders said. The jump was broad-based, with Brent crude also rising more than 2% and gasoline futures following suit. The attack drew attention back to the security of the waterway, which had been a secondary concern for markets earlier this year.
Geopolitical risk premiums in crude had been shrinking in recent weeks as the market focused on demand concerns and U.S. inventory builds. The attack served as a reminder that the Middle East security situation remains a latent source of potential supply disruption, traders said. The key question is whether the incident is a one-off or part of a broader pattern.
For now, the market is pricing in a higher probability of a supply disruption, several traders said. That shift shows up in the options market, where the cost of protection against a sharp price spike has risen. The premium for out-of-the-money WTI calls expiring in August climbed to its highest level in a month, traders said.
The next catalyst for crude is the weekly U.S. inventory report due Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters expect a draw of 1.5 million barrels, which would be the first decline in three weeks. A larger-than-expected draw, combined with the geopolitical risk, could push WTI toward $75, traders said. A build, on the other hand, would test the market's willingness to sustain the risk premium.
WTI settled at $73.62, up 2.6% on the day. The move erased the previous week's decline and left the contract near the top of its recent range.
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