Oil Jumps 3%, Dollar Bid, RBNZ Delivers First Hike in 3 Years

Crude added nearly 3% early Wednesday as Washington launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iranian military infrastructure. The action followed Iranian attacks on three commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration also revoked Iran's licence to sell oil, a financial squeeze that preceded the military escalation. A US official described the strikes as punitive, not proportional, signalling an intent to keep pressure on Tehran.

Iran's response so far has been rhetorical but pointed. Tehran called the reinstated oil sanctions a breach of the earlier ceasefire memorandum. Unconfirmed reports suggest its navy has been ordered to shut the strait to all traffic, a step that would mark a serious escalation if confirmed. Iran has promised further action, leaving markets bracing for the next rung on what increasingly looks like a mutual escalation ladder.

The dollar caught a safe-haven bid, trading at its best level since July 2 against a basket of peers. Yields pushed higher globally on reawakened inflation concern tied to the energy shock. Against that backdrop, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered its first OCR hike in three years, lifting rates by 25 basis points. The bank flagged more tightening is likely, though it stressed the timing remains highly uncertain. The kiwi firmed in response.

Equity markets across Asia told a choppier story. The Nikkei opened weak, briefly touched flat, then slipped back into the red. The KOSPI swung wildly, opening down more than 2.5% before reversing to gains of as much as 1%, though that upside proved short-lived. Shanghai and Hong Kong were the session's bright spots. The Hang Seng outperformed on a run of new listings, headlined by Momenta Global's debut, which traded as much as 5% above its issue price before giving back the gain. US equity futures mirrored the KOSPI's mood swing, opening soft before firming to flat or modestly higher.

Away from the geopolitical and monetary headlines, the US Commerce Department was reported to have lifted export restrictions on OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model. The story is smaller for now but worth watching given the broader tech and AI investment threads running through the global growth outlook. The next catalyst for markets remains the trajectory of US-Iran tensions and whether the RBNZ's forward guidance shifts as the inflation picture evolves.