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Yen on track for biggest weekly drop since May, falling past 160 per dollar despite BOJ warnings. Focus turns to US jobs data for next catalyst.
India's forex reserves rose $1.08B to $676.24B, the RBI said Friday. A $4.55B gain in foreign currency assets drove the increase, offsetting a $3.48B drop in gold holdings.
WTI crude fell 2.7% to $89.65 as markets took a breather from the week's risk-off tone. The dollar edged lower, European equities posted modest gains, and gold recovered to $4,059, but dealers said the moves reflect position-squaring ahead of the weekend.
The RBI sold dollars via sell-buy swaps as crude climbed and NDF maturities created dollar demand. Oil's rise widens India's import bill, threatening the current account.
UK flash composite PMI rose to 52.1 in July, its highest in three months, as manufacturing output hit a 22-month high. Services also returned to growth. Easing price pressures reduce immediate pressure on the BOE to tighten further.
Activity rebounded on good weather and World Cup, though growth remained lacklustre. Manufacturing now growing faster than services; sustained cooling not assured, S&P Global economist said.
UK retail sales rose 1.2% in August, double forecasts. The pound climbed above $1.3330 as traders pared BOE rate-cut bets. Wednesday's CPI print is the next catalyst.
Dollar index holds near 104.50 as traders weigh new US steel tariffs and Middle East escalation. Sterling slips on weak UK data, yen stays above 152 as BOJ decision looms.
Manufacturing output hit a two-year high as the euro area returned to growth in July. Services also expanded, employment rose for the first time in 2024, and input cost pressures eased sharply. Risks from oil and shipping disruptions remain.
QatarEnergy extends force majeure on LNG shipments to Asia. US crude stocks rise 2M barrels. Natural gas at $2.89, WTI tests $90.60, Brent near $99.
Brent crude touched $100 as Houthi attacks and Trump's Iran warning stoked supply fears. S&P 500 fell 1.2%. USD/JPY hit ¥164. July PMIs due Friday.
Brent crude pushed toward $95 as transport disruptions replaced supply fears as the dominant market driver. The $95–96 zone could determine whether oil enters a new inflationary cycle, an analyst said.
France's services PMI rose to 49.8, a seven-month high, but employment and demand remain weak. The report warns that geopolitical tensions and ECB tightening could derail the recovery.
UK retail sales rose 1% in June, beating forecasts for a decline, as online and clothing stores led the gains. Fuel sales fell 0.8%.
German consumer sentiment worsened more than expected in August, with GfK index falling to -29.6 from revised -29.3, signaling weak household spending.
UK retail sales rose 1.0% in June, far above the -0.3% forecast, led by a 4.4% surge in non-store retailing. Computer and telecoms demand remained strong from March releases.
Iran rejected a US-brokered ceasefire proposal, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. Ship traffic is down to 3 transits per day. WTI crude is above $90 and TTF gas is up 40% since June.
Japan core CPI rose to 1.6% in June; core-core eased to 1.7%. Food prices rose 3.1%, energy fell 0.1%. BoJ expected to hold rates next week.
Japan's composite PMI rose to 53.1 in July, its highest since February, as AI and semiconductor demand drove a sharp acceleration in manufacturing output despite cooling services activity.
Services PMI jumped to 53.0, lifting Australia's Composite PMI to a 2026 high of 52.6. New orders rose for the first time in five months, signaling domestic demand is recovering even as overseas markets remain weak.
Lagarde says economic outlook is back to June baseline. September hike now very likely, but only one additional move expected versus market pricing of two.
Oil spikes, yields climb, and tech stocks sell off after Trump flags a potential Iran strike. The dollar gains as the Fed's September path grows murkier ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.
Carney says talks are constructive but Canada wants a broad USMCA deal covering key sectors, not a narrow one. Ottawa signals readiness to respond if talks stall or U.S. tariffs expand.
The EU fined Google €890M under the DMA, giving the U.S. a stronger case for Section 301 tariffs that could lead to retaliatory trade measures.
Senate blocks resolution curbing Trump's Iran war powers after House passes similar measure. Israeli officials warn region 'headed for escalation.'
Brent crude topped $100, sending energy stocks up 12% and the dollar to 163 yen. The 2-year yield hit 4.35% as rate hike bets increased. Refiners Marathon and Phillips 66 led.
Iran's IRGC says no more deceptive ceasefires; House passes war powers resolution 214-208; Houthi missile transfers raise Red Sea risk. Oil markets on edge.
Canadian PM Carney criticizes 50% US tariffs on autos, dairy, and other goods, warns of economic damage to both sides. USDCAD holds above 1.4065.
Crude holds above 84 support as Mideast conflict escalates. Resistance at 92.50-93.00 zone caps rallies. Wednesday's inventory report is the next catalyst.
Brent crude rallied toward $99, pressuring the yen and lifting the Canadian dollar. Middle East supply fears escalated. Traders are watching the Strait of Hormuz.