Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
The dollar breakout sent the Nasdaq 100 down 3.3% and AUD/USD to a two-month low. Gold nears $4,024 support as yields rise.
The dollar index broke past long-term range barriers, sending the Nasdaq down 3.3% and AUD/USD to a two-month low. Gold sits $86 above a key support level. The BOJ summary is the overnight catalyst.
Headline CPI slowed to 4% while core accelerated to 4.1%, splitting RBA odds. BOJ summary targets 1.75% peak. Dollar holds gains as antipodean currencies languish.
BoJ June summary reveals policymakers see neutral rate around 2%, signaling further rate hikes beyond 1%. One member dissented citing growth risks.
Australia's trimmed mean CPI rose to 3.6% yoy, highest since late 2024, signaling persistent underlying inflation even as headline eased to 4.0%.
Rupee closes at 94.73, down 6 paise, as dollar demand persists. Oil slide offers no relief with retail prices unchanged. RBI's 94.80–95.00 swap zone in focus.
Japan's May services PPI held at 3.3% with ocean freight up 62% and air transport up 17%, reinforcing BOJ rate hike expectations and highlighting oil shock transmission.
The BOJ's June summary showed some board members favored rate hikes toward neutral. Higher rates could boost the yen and pressure carry trades, shifting yields and equity dynamics ahead of the July meeting.
Global stocks slumped Tuesday as AI spending concerns, a hawkish Fed outlook, and a stronger dollar triggered a tech-led selloff. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.2%.
Crude oil fell to $73.59 testing the 200-day moving average. Two confirmation signals separate a bounce from a deeper retracement to $68.81.
Australian inflation miss sends AUD 60 pips lower and erases any chance of a 2025 RBA hike. BoJ Summary reveals a board divided on the pace of normalization, offering no new catalyst for the yen.
Strong direct bidding by reserve managers and long-term investors pushed the two-year auction tail negative, signaling robust demand at 4.19%. The composition shift may cap short-end yields and weigh on the dollar ahead of five-year and seven-year sales this week.
UK services PMI prices gauge hits lowest since Feb 2021, backing BoE hold. Pound slips 0.43% vs dollar. Next test: US CPI Aug 14.
JPMorgan stays long USD on US growth premium and yield gap. CAD vulnerable to slower demand. Next catalysts: Fed minutes, January CPI.
EUR/GBP holds 0.86–0.87 as mixed PMI data from both economies confirms a standoff. No catalyst to break the range until April inflation or May GDP.
Sterling and the FTSE rose after Starmer resigned, with traders betting on policy continuity. The pound recovered early losses as the market looked past political uncertainty.
The US Flash Composite PMI rose to 52.2 in June, led by a 49-month high in manufacturing. Services struggled. Cooling input costs and weak employment shape the Fed outlook.
Warsh's AI productivity parallel echoes Greenspan's 1990s playbook, but the new Fed chief lacks the clout to push it through. A split FOMC could tighten policy faster than he wants, lifting the dollar.
The RBI now lets banks lend against overseas FX deposits, boosting dollar liquidity without draining reserves. Here's how the new channel affects rupee stability and forex flows.
Sterling fell Tuesday after a survey showed UK business activity contracted, compounding political uncertainty from PM Starmer's resignation. The dollar's broad rally extended losses.
Services activity climbed to a three-month high in June, lifting the composite PMI to 49.5. The marginal gap below 50 leaves the ECB in a policy bind as inflation pressures ease unevenly.
Germany's manufacturing PMI printed at 50.0 in June, missing the 50.4 consensus. Services activity declined at a faster pace, raising the risk of a Q2 contraction and widening the US-EU rate gap.
France's June services PMI at 47.4 beat consensus. Employment stabilised; new orders contracted for 7th month. The ECB gets more room to cut, though oil uncertainty complicates the outlook.
Sterling holds above 1.2900 as markets price in a Burnham leadership. Gilt stability is the real signal. The 1.3020 resistance level is the key test.
French business confidence missed the 95 forecast in June, unchanged from May at 94. Employment confidence fell to 89, the lowest since February 2021, ahead of the ECB's July meeting.
Eurozone services in contraction, UK flash tests slowdown, US holds firm. The divergence fuels rate differential trades, lifting USD and yields. Hungary rate decision due.
Pound flat near €1.1543 as traders await UK services PMI. Divergence with eurozone data could break the range. Next catalyst: Wednesday's 09:30 BST print.
The rupee opens higher as crude slides on U.S.-Iran talks. Fed rate hike expectations limit the gain. The key drivers are the outcome of nuclear negotiations and further Fed commentary.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says the key question is whether inflation stays stuck at 3%-4% or fades. Services inflation worries him most. The June CPI print on July 10 tests the framework.
Asian equities slipped as Fed rate hike bets rose to a one-in-three chance by December. Oil firmed after the U.S. waived Iran sanctions. The CPI print due this month is the next catalyst.