Headline CPI slowed to 4% while core accelerated to 4.1%, splitting RBA odds. BOJ summary targets 1.75% peak. Dollar holds gains as antipodean currencies languish.
A split Australian inflation print set the tone for Asia-Pacific markets Wednesday. Headline CPI ran below forecasts. Core measures accelerated. The two prints left the RBA's policy path unresolved, and the Australian dollar stayed pinned near 11-week lows.
Westpac held onto its August hike call. The bank argued that second-round effects from the Middle East are broadening across consumer prices in ways the headline miss obscures. Markets priced 36% odds of a move in August and 67% for December. The kiwi fared no better, sitting at a seven-month trough. Dollar strength compounded the pressure on antipodean currencies. The data followed a previous report showing core acceleration.
In Japan, the BOJ's June Summary of Opinions confirmed a board majority pushing toward neutral. Some members explicitly called for hikes at intervals of a few months. Roughly 90% of economists now expect another move by December, and the projected cycle peak has been revised up to around 1.75%. The yen remains near 40-year lows despite the June hike, keeping import cost pressures alive and the hawks well-armed. The summary reinforced the view that Japan's rate path is set for a gradual climb. Our earlier coverage laid out the board's internal push.
Seoul provided the session's sharpest price action. Samsung surged as much as 10% early on a Yonhap report of a 90 trillion won buyback plan. The government confirmed it would announce details of a new AI semiconductor cluster involving Samsung and SK Hynix. The gains faded as the morning wore on.
Gold continued to slide. The Fed hike narrative kept the pressure on. Morgan Stanley's North Haven private credit fund added to the sector's mounting liquidity headlines by capping Q2 redemptions at 5% against withdrawal demand of 11.6%. Away from macro, Alphabet will join the Dow Jones Industrial Average ahead of Monday's open, replacing Verizon.
Oil inventory data out Wednesday morning in the US showed the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level in more than 40 years. The drawdown reflects the pace of releases over the past year rather than a new surge in demand. The level itself is a reminder of how much supply cushion has been drained.
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