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CLARITY Act Passage Odds Cut to 50-50 by Galaxy Research
Galaxy Research cut its estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50-50 from 60%, citing a crowded Senate floor calendar and unresolved ethics disputes.
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Galaxy Research sees less than a coin flip's chance that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026. The research arm of Galaxy Digital published a revised estimate of 50-50, down from 60% three weeks ago. The downgrade reflects a calendar problem, not a substance problem, Galaxy researcher Alex Thorn wrote.
The bill, formally the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act, cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14. It has sat on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 ever since. No floor date has been set. No motion to proceed has been scheduled. No merged text from the Banking and Agriculture committees has been made public.
The competition for floor time has intensified. Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act lapsed on June 12. The FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act remains unfinished. On June 24, President Trump canceled the signing of a bipartisan housing bill, tying it to the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections bill that Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said lacks the votes to pass the chamber. Each of those pieces of legislation demands leadership attention and floor hours that the CLARITY Act would need.