
Jon Long charges £11.70 for cod and chips. Only £2 stays with him after VAT, fish, wages, gas and electricity. The breakdown shows why UK inflation sticks.
Jon Long charges £11.70 for a regular cod and chips at his shop in Wimborne, Dorset. Roughly £2 of that goes straight to the government in VAT. The fish itself costs between £3.50 and £4 – about 35% of the price. Staff wages eat another 40%, or about £4. Packaging, gas and electricity take a slice. What remains is roughly £2. That £2 covers reinvestment, future upgrades and Long's own income. It is not net profit.
The war in Ukraine, pandemic fallout and hospitality energy costs all play into that number. Long said his fish cost has jumped from £7 a kilo to £16-£17. Over 50% of fish coming into the UK had been Russian-caught; that supply has stopped and tariffs have been added. Energy prices have hit every hospitality business, he said. "It's not just hospitality, it's everybody's pockets."
Long's grandfather and father were in the trade. He said he swore he would never join it, "but of course it's in your blood." He reopened a shop in Wareham that had shut in November, partly because his son came into the business. "I wouldn't be investing in that if I didn't believe there was a future," he said. "We've got to manage our costs well."
The average haddock and chips now runs just over £10 across UK takeaways, according to industry body Seafish. Cod and chips averages £11.41. Long said he has seen fish and chips as high as £18 for takeaway. Some shops have turned to unfamiliar fish species to keep prices down.
About 7,210 fish and chip shops operate across the UK, Seafish estimates. Each one faces the same cost stack: fish supply disruption, energy inflation, labour at roughly 40% of revenue, and VAT that takes a direct cut of the ticket price. The margin left after those four layers is thin enough that a further rise in gas or fish tariffs would push more shops toward closure – or toward a £15 basket of cod and chips.
The next check is the UK CPI print due in July. Fish and chips is a line item in the basket. If the £11.70 price spreads across the south, the inflation reading will not soften, it will harden.
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