Brent crude topped $90 as US-Iran strikes cut Strait of Hormuz traffic by half. Barclays warns markets are too complacent on inventory risk.
Alpha Score of 59 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, weak value, weak quality, moderate sentiment.
Oil prices jumped 3% on Monday, with Brent crude climbing above $90 a barrel for the first time since June. The move came as the United States and Iran expanded attacks on each other's territory and shipping, tightening the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures settled at $90.79 a barrel, up $2.69. That followed a 15.9% gain last week, the biggest weekly rise since April. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.65% to $84.68, also the highest since mid-June, after a 15.5% weekly advance.
The escalation over the weekend included a ninth straight night of U.S. strikes against Iran. Kuwait and Bahrain reported fresh Iranian attacks. Both sides have taken aim at commercial shipping. The U.S. says it is enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran says it targets vessels that violate its rules on navigating the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles one-fifth of global oil trade.
A vessel was on fire northwest of Oman's Kumzar early Monday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said. LSEG shipping data showed only four vessels transited the strait on Sunday, down from eight the previous day. At least three oil products tankers and one Very Large Crude Carrier entered the strait since Friday to load oil.
"The coming days and weeks will provide a clearer picture of the sustainable level of oil exports from the region under renewed dual blockades," Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note. "As things stand, we think oil markets are still too complacent about the potential fallout for inventories, which, unlike at the beginning of the war, are at the tightest of the past five years."
Barclays itself carries an Alpha Score of 59, a moderate rating, reflecting its exposure to commodity trading and energy-sector lending. The bank's analysts have been among the most bearish on supply risk since the conflict began.
The tightness Singh cited is visible in U.S. crude stockpiles, which have fallen for four consecutive weeks. The next official inventory report from the Energy Information Administration is due Wednesday. Traders said the market will be watching for any sign that the Hormuz disruption is forcing refiners to draw down strategic reserves.
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