Apple slipped 2.3% after a subdued product event, testing its 200-day moving average near $170.50. Options skewed bearish, and Wedbush's Dan Ives sees the October earnings report as the next real catalyst.
Apple shares slipped 2.3% Friday, closing at $172.40, after the company's September hardware event failed to deliver a surprise on iPhone pricing or AI integration. The stock now sits less than 1% above its 200-day moving average, a level that has marked the low of each pullback since June.
Volume ran 20% above the 20-day average on the session, with most of the selling concentrated in the final hour. Options flow showed a 3-to-1 put-to-call ratio on the weekly expiry, the heaviest bearish tilt since the August selloff.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the event was "largely priced in" and that the real catalyst will be the October earnings report, when Apple gives its first outlook with the new iPhone cycle embedded. He reiterated an outperform rating and $250 target.
Technical support at the 200-day sits near $170.50, roughly 1% below Friday's close. A clean break below that level would open the August low near $164, where the stock bounced from oversold RSI readings. Resistance is the $175 area, where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 100-day last week – a bearish signal that has not yet been invalidated.
Macro headwinds are compounding the stock-specific pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points Friday to 4.37%, extending a two-week climb that has clipped growth stocks disproportionately. Apple's correlation to the Nasdaq 100 has risen to 0.85 over the past month, leaving it exposed to any further rotation out of tech.
Fund flows reflect the caution. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) saw $1.2 billion in outflows this week, the largest weekly withdrawal since December. Apple accounts for about 22% of the fund's weighting.
For now, the 200-day moving average is the line in the sand. The next scheduled event is the October earnings release, due around Oct. 30. No official date has been set.
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