Apple fell below the 200-day moving average for the first time in three months. The $235 support level held on elevated volume, but options markets point to further downside risk this week.
Apple shares fell 2.1% in Tuesday trading, sliding below the 200-day moving average for the first time in three months. The move came after a broader tech sell-off that pushed the Nasdaq down 1.6%.
Volume was 20% above the 30-day average, with 68 million shares changing hands. The dip found support at $235, a level that held during the October correction. A break below that floor would open the path toward $225, where the stock found buyers in early November, traders said.
The 200-day line at $239.40 has acted as resistance since Nov. 22. Apple never closed above it after the post-earnings gap lower. The stock has now failed at that level five sessions in a row.
Option markets are pricing a 3.9% swing in either direction by Friday's expiration. The put-call ratio on AAPL sits at 1.35, the highest in two weeks, suggesting some positioning for further downside.
Fundamental catalysts remain thin until the December iPhone sales data, due from IDC in mid-January. Services revenue growth, reported at 12% last quarter, is the metric most analysts cite as the valuation anchor at current levels.
One trader at a New York-based hedge fund said the technical picture is clear: "If $235 fails, the next stop is $225. If it holds, you get a re-test of the 200-day. That's the range until something breaks."
The stock closed at $236.10. Next session's first pivot, based on Tuesday's high-low range, is $237.20 on the upside and $234.50 on the downside.
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