Bitcoin COT Report
Positions in CME bitcoin futures (5 BTC) as of Tuesday Oct 13, 2026, released by the CFTC on Friday Oct 16, 2026. Next report: positions as of Oct 20, 2026, scheduled for release on Friday Oct 23, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
CFTC Commitments of Traders report as of Oct 13, 2026
What changed this week
In the week to Tuesday Oct 13, 2026, large speculators (non-commercial traders) in CME bitcoin futures cut their net long by 6 contracts to 2,534. Their 3-year COT index stands at 79, on a scale where 0 is the lowest net position of the past 3 years (-2,486 on Jul 15, 2025) and 100 the highest (+3,904 on Jul 28, 2026). In the Traders in Financial Futures report, leveraged funds were net short 5,844 contracts, a weekly change of +1,008. Commercial hedgers were net short 2,735, a weekly change of +271. Open interest fell by 680 to 20,752 contracts.
Positions by trader group
Contracts · Oct 13, 2026| Trader group | Report | Long | Short | Net | Net, w/w | Net % OI | 3-yr COT index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large speculators (non-commercial) | Legacy | 17,320 | 14,786 | +2,534 | -6 | +12.2% | 79 |
| Commercials (hedgers) | Legacy | 85 | 2,820 | -2,735 | +271 | -13.2% | 15 |
| Small traders (non-reportable) | Legacy | 982 | 781 | +201 | -265 | +1.0% | 48 |
| Leveraged funds | TFF | 5,520 | 11,364 | -5,844 | +1,008 | -28.2% | 97 |
| Asset managers & institutional | TFF | 5,079 | 1,437 | +3,642 | +110 | +17.6% | 9 |
| Dealers & intermediaries | TFF | 6,646 | 4,805 | +1,841 | -498 | +8.9% | 44 |
| Other reportables | TFF | 160 | 0 | +160 | -355 | +0.8% | 18 |
- Large speculators (non-commercial): Reportable traders that do not qualify as commercial hedgers for this commodity.
- Commercials (hedgers): Reportable traders whose futures positions in this commodity are hedges as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.3.
- Small traders (non-reportable): Open interest left after subtracting all reportable positions; positions below the CFTC reporting levels.
- Leveraged funds: Typically hedge funds and money managers, including registered CTAs and CPOs.
- Asset managers & institutional: Pension funds, endowments, insurers, mutual funds and managers whose clients are mainly institutional.
- Dealers & intermediaries: The sell side: large banks and dealers in securities, swaps and other derivatives.
- Other reportables: Reportable traders that fit none of the three categories above, e.g. corporate treasuries and central banks.
Large speculators' net position, last 5 years
Contracts, weeklyCOT index by lookback (large speculators)
| Lookback | COT index | Percentile | Range low | Range high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 weeks | 57 | 50% | +703 Sep 1, 2026 | +3,904 Jul 28, 2026 |
| 52 weeks | 70 | 73% | -734 Jan 6, 2026 | +3,904 Jul 28, 2026 |
| 3 years | 79 | 91% | -2,486 Jul 15, 2025 | +3,904 Jul 28, 2026 |
| All history (since 2018) | 84 | 97% | -4,412 Oct 26, 2021 | +3,904 Jul 28, 2026 |
0 = lowest net position of the lookback, 100 = highest. Percentile = share of weeks in the lookback with a net position at or below this week's.
Positioning extremes
| Window | Highest net | Lowest net |
|---|---|---|
| Past 52 weeks | +3,904 Jul 28, 2026 | -734 Jan 6, 2026 |
| Past 3 years | +3,904 Jul 28, 2026 | -2,486 Jul 15, 2025 |
| Past 5 years | +3,904 Jul 28, 2026 | -4,412 Oct 26, 2021 |
| Since Apr 10, 2018 | +3,904 Jul 28, 2026 | -4,412 Oct 26, 2021 |
| Window | Highest net | Lowest net |
|---|---|---|
| Past 52 weeks | -5,313 Jun 30, 2026 | -17,223 Oct 28, 2025 |
| Past 3 years | -5,313 Jun 30, 2026 | -23,197 Dec 17, 2024 |
| Past 5 years | -1,197 Jan 3, 2023 | -23,197 Dec 17, 2024 |
| Since Apr 10, 2018 | +494 Jan 15, 2019 | -23,197 Dec 17, 2024 |
Weekly history, last 3 years
Download full history (CSV)| Report date | Large specs net | w/w | Leveraged funds net | Commercials net | Open interest | 3-yr index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | +2,534 | -6 | -5,844 | -2,735 | 20,752 | 79 |
| 2026-10-06 | +2,540 | +75 | -6,852 | -3,006 | 21,432 | 79 |
| 2026-09-29 | +2,465 | -291 | -6,856 | -2,770 | 19,596 | 77 |
| 2026-09-22 | +2,756 | +288 | -7,953 | -3,109 | 22,315 | 82 |
| 2026-09-15 | +2,468 | +944 | -6,354 | -2,657 | 20,773 | 78 |
| 2026-09-08 | +1,524 | +821 | -7,892 | -2,061 | 21,083 | 63 |
| 2026-09-01 | +703 | -1,246 | -7,620 | -1,077 | 19,697 | 50 |
| 2026-08-25 | +1,949 | -787 | -8,089 | -1,790 | 22,216 | 69 |
| 2026-08-18 | +2,736 | -1,129 | -7,439 | -2,448 | 21,760 | 82 |
| 2026-08-11 | +3,865 | +113 | -7,052 | -3,555 | 21,185 | 99 |
| 2026-08-04 | +3,752 | -152 | -7,240 | -3,332 | 20,143 | 98 |
| 2026-07-28 | +3,904 | +850 | -6,873 | -3,562 | 20,019 | 100 |
| 2026-07-21 | +3,054 | -37 | -7,949 | -2,986 | 20,527 | 89 |
| 2026-07-14 | +3,091 | -409 | -7,491 | -2,905 | 19,385 | 89 |
| 2026-07-07 | +3,500 | -270 | -6,717 | -3,217 | 18,832 | 96 |
| 2026-06-30 | +3,770 | +246 | -5,313 | -3,536 | 18,336 | 100 |
| 2026-06-23 | +3,524 | +49 | -6,130 | -3,253 | 20,554 | 100 |
| 2026-06-16 | +3,475 | +457 | -6,607 | -3,545 | 21,125 | 100 |
| 2026-06-09 | +3,018 | +560 | -5,995 | -2,906 | 19,776 | 100 |
| 2026-06-02 | +2,458 | +176 | -6,558 | -2,595 | 19,882 | 98 |
| 2026-05-26 | +2,282 | +170 | -8,634 | -2,390 | 21,625 | 95 |
| 2026-05-19 | +2,112 | +853 | -8,961 | -2,272 | 23,000 | 91 |
| 2026-05-12 | +1,259 | -182 | -11,070 | -2,160 | 23,535 | 75 |
| 2026-05-05 | +1,441 | -951 | -11,738 | -1,539 | 23,402 | 78 |
| 2026-04-28 | +2,392 | +321 | -10,360 | -2,332 | 21,692 | 97 |
| 2026-04-21 | +2,071 | -122 | -10,722 | -2,250 | 24,994 | 91 |
| 2026-04-14 | +2,193 | -347 | -10,239 | -2,043 | 23,761 | 93 |
| 2026-04-07 | +2,540 | +287 | -8,427 | -2,232 | 22,308 | 100 |
| 2026-03-31 | +2,253 | +147 | -8,052 | -1,809 | 20,631 | 100 |
| 2026-03-24 | +2,106 | +333 | -8,351 | -1,949 | 23,268 | 97 |
| 2026-03-17 | +1,773 | +471 | -10,860 | -1,862 | 23,807 | 90 |
| 2026-03-10 | +1,302 | +291 | -9,679 | -1,322 | 21,047 | 80 |
| 2026-03-03 | +1,011 | -161 | -9,195 | -862 | 20,302 | 74 |
| 2026-02-24 | +1,172 | -466 | -8,236 | -1,120 | 22,919 | 78 |
| 2026-02-17 | +1,638 | +621 | -8,876 | -1,707 | 23,335 | 87 |
| 2026-02-10 | +1,017 | +9 | -9,499 | -1,117 | 24,157 | 74 |
| 2026-02-03 | +1,008 | +318 | -11,425 | -968 | 23,044 | 74 |
| 2026-01-27 | +690 | +392 | -12,396 | -585 | 24,276 | 67 |
| 2026-01-20 | +298 | +229 | -11,558 | -445 | 24,541 | 59 |
| 2026-01-13 | +69 | +803 | -12,718 | -134 | 23,843 | 54 |
| 2026-01-06 | -734 | -221 | -11,740 | +658 | 22,168 | 37 |
| 2025-12-30 | -513 | -34 | -10,911 | +626 | 20,166 | 42 |
| 2025-12-23 | -479 | -585 | -11,251 | +453 | 21,988 | 43 |
| 2025-12-16 | +106 | -159 | -12,543 | +19 | 24,502 | 55 |
| 2025-12-09 | +265 | -302 | -14,870 | -347 | 24,793 | 58 |
| 2025-12-02 | +567 | +650 | -14,126 | -591 | 24,329 | 65 |
| 2025-11-25 | -83 | +229 | -13,764 | -262 | 26,260 | 51 |
| 2025-11-18 | -312 | -440 | -13,564 | +161 | 27,116 | 46 |
| 2025-11-10 | +128 | +403 | -15,810 | -99 | 27,544 | 55 |
| 2025-11-04 | -275 | +268 | -15,168 | +31 | 27,093 | 47 |
| 2025-10-28 | -543 | -214 | -17,223 | +117 | 28,717 | 41 |
| 2025-10-21 | -329 | +123 | -14,002 | -140 | 28,477 | 46 |
| 2025-10-14 | -452 | +656 | -13,431 | +128 | 28,503 | 43 |
| 2025-10-07 | -1,108 | -1,000 | -14,047 | +876 | 29,001 | 29 |
| 2025-09-30 | -108 | -187 | -13,873 | -78 | 26,874 | 50 |
| 2025-09-23 | +79 | +59 | -14,393 | -325 | 27,809 | 54 |
| 2025-09-16 | +20 | +488 | -16,369 | -453 | 28,844 | 53 |
| 2025-09-09 | -468 | +434 | -14,751 | +56 | 26,930 | 43 |
| 2025-09-02 | -902 | -530 | -15,322 | +649 | 26,684 | 34 |
| 2025-08-26 | -372 | +828 | -15,006 | +280 | 27,481 | 45 |
| 2025-08-19 | -1,200 | -458 | -14,826 | +758 | 28,971 | 27 |
| 2025-08-12 | -742 | +759 | -15,616 | +118 | 27,851 | 37 |
| 2025-08-05 | -1,501 | -493 | -14,098 | +1,195 | 27,561 | 21 |
| 2025-07-29 | -1,008 | +844 | -15,808 | +530 | 28,068 | 31 |
| 2025-07-22 | -1,852 | +634 | -14,983 | +1,247 | 30,797 | 13 |
| 2025-07-15 | -2,486 | -50 | -14,347 | +1,927 | 31,309 | 0 |
| 2025-07-08 | -2,436 | -680 | -14,824 | +1,880 | 29,591 | 0 |
| 2025-07-01 | -1,756 | +405 | -14,641 | +1,302 | 29,388 | 13 |
| 2025-06-24 | -2,161 | -377 | -15,683 | +1,692 | 31,352 | 4 |
| 2025-06-17 | -1,784 | +225 | -15,018 | +1,462 | 30,860 | 12 |
| 2025-06-10 | -2,009 | +303 | -15,136 | +1,741 | 30,261 | 7 |
| 2025-06-03 | -2,312 | -38 | -14,444 | +1,949 | 29,758 | 1 |
| 2025-05-27 | -2,274 | -322 | -15,261 | +1,772 | 31,964 | 2 |
| 2025-05-20 | -1,952 | -1,125 | -14,711 | +1,692 | 32,033 | 9 |
| 2025-05-13 | -827 | +954 | -14,139 | +1,548 | 29,070 | 33 |
| 2025-05-06 | -1,781 | -550 | -16,276 | +1,541 | 27,971 | 12 |
| 2025-04-29 | -1,231 | -425 | -15,898 | +915 | 26,966 | 24 |
| 2025-04-22 | -806 | -1,392 | -16,203 | +612 | 28,202 | 34 |
| 2025-04-15 | +586 | -746 | -14,440 | -268 | 27,126 | 64 |
| 2025-04-08 | +1,332 | +841 | -13,945 | -897 | 26,909 | 80 |
| 2025-04-01 | +491 | -688 | -17,141 | -306 | 27,069 | 62 |
| 2025-03-25 | +1,179 | -662 | -18,812 | -1,150 | 29,036 | 77 |
| 2025-03-18 | +1,841 | +312 | -17,968 | -1,747 | 30,213 | 91 |
| 2025-03-11 | +1,529 | +915 | -18,271 | -1,301 | 28,545 | 85 |
| 2025-03-04 | +614 | +410 | -18,477 | -516 | 28,209 | 65 |
| 2025-02-25 | +204 | +571 | -19,199 | -261 | 32,060 | 56 |
| 2025-02-18 | -367 | 0 | -19,782 | +141 | 33,833 | 43 |
| 2025-02-11 | -367 | -1,153 | -20,083 | +307 | 32,949 | 43 |
| 2025-02-04 | +786 | -379 | -20,998 | -918 | 32,892 | 68 |
| 2025-01-28 | +1,165 | +426 | -22,218 | -1,473 | 34,317 | 77 |
| 2025-01-21 | +739 | -596 | -22,869 | -1,007 | 38,556 | 67 |
| 2025-01-14 | +1,335 | +145 | -21,336 | -1,520 | 35,471 | 80 |
| 2025-01-07 | +1,190 | +1,509 | -21,204 | -1,408 | 35,079 | 77 |
| 2024-12-31 | -319 | -190 | -20,064 | -44 | 33,893 | 44 |
| 2024-12-24 | -129 | -300 | -21,102 | -146 | 37,125 | 48 |
| 2024-12-17 | +171 | +891 | -23,197 | -483 | 42,524 | 55 |
| 2024-12-10 | -720 | +875 | -20,986 | +236 | 37,588 | 36 |
| 2024-12-03 | -1,595 | -399 | -21,655 | +1,040 | 37,021 | 16 |
| 2024-11-26 | -1,196 | +888 | -19,205 | +506 | 40,510 | 25 |
| 2024-11-19 | -2,084 | -286 | -20,108 | +1,294 | 41,203 | 6 |
| 2024-11-12 | -1,798 | -341 | -20,359 | +1,151 | 38,531 | 12 |
| 2024-11-05 | -1,457 | +412 | -19,254 | +927 | 32,011 | 20 |
| 2024-10-29 | -1,869 | -224 | -20,915 | +1,242 | 33,787 | 11 |
| 2024-10-22 | -1,645 | +227 | -20,249 | +1,114 | 33,562 | 42 |
| 2024-10-15 | -1,872 | -590 | -20,384 | +1,466 | 34,494 | 38 |
| 2024-10-08 | -1,282 | +402 | -18,848 | +872 | 29,382 | 47 |
| 2024-10-01 | -1,684 | -138 | -17,341 | +1,453 | 28,539 | 41 |
| 2024-09-24 | -1,546 | -573 | -18,638 | +1,093 | 30,542 | 43 |
| 2024-09-17 | -973 | -620 | -18,049 | +596 | 30,995 | 52 |
| 2024-09-10 | -353 | -461 | -17,138 | +85 | 28,157 | 61 |
| 2024-09-03 | +108 | +274 | -16,692 | -351 | 26,859 | 68 |
| 2024-08-27 | -166 | +77 | -17,932 | -132 | 29,817 | 64 |
| 2024-08-20 | -243 | -638 | -17,131 | +17 | 29,630 | 63 |
| 2024-08-13 | +395 | -143 | -17,288 | -676 | 27,874 | 72 |
| 2024-08-06 | +538 | +1,540 | -17,245 | -719 | 27,535 | 75 |
| 2024-07-30 | -1,002 | -341 | -17,593 | +327 | 28,605 | 51 |
| 2024-07-23 | -661 | -82 | -18,674 | +182 | 32,435 | 56 |
| 2024-07-16 | -579 | -461 | -18,803 | +181 | 31,183 | 58 |
| 2024-07-09 | -118 | +794 | -17,776 | -88 | 28,241 | 65 |
| 2024-07-02 | -912 | -288 | -16,771 | +512 | 27,063 | 53 |
| 2024-06-25 | -624 | +99 | -16,937 | +241 | 30,171 | 57 |
| 2024-06-18 | -723 | +415 | -17,071 | +225 | 30,627 | 56 |
| 2024-06-11 | -1,138 | -19 | -17,643 | +449 | 30,503 | 49 |
| 2024-06-04 | -1,119 | -363 | -17,950 | +366 | 31,086 | 50 |
| 2024-05-28 | -756 | +134 | -17,051 | -148 | 30,255 | 55 |
| 2024-05-21 | -890 | -713 | -16,822 | +122 | 30,694 | 53 |
| 2024-05-14 | -177 | +606 | -15,646 | -421 | 27,077 | 64 |
| 2024-05-07 | -783 | -789 | -15,221 | +134 | 26,155 | 55 |
| 2024-04-30 | +6 | +6 | -14,464 | -530 | 24,795 | 66 |
| 2024-04-23 | 0 | +363 | -16,493 | -657 | 27,932 | 66 |
| 2024-04-16 | -363 | -210 | -15,183 | -313 | 29,526 | 61 |
| 2024-04-09 | -153 | -313 | -16,016 | -838 | 29,074 | 64 |
| 2024-04-02 | +160 | +1,235 | -16,081 | -1,008 | 29,745 | 69 |
| 2024-03-26 | -1,075 | +1,021 | -16,102 | +109 | 31,238 | 50 |
| 2024-03-19 | -2,096 | -1,102 | -14,369 | +1,253 | 33,196 | 35 |
| 2024-03-12 | -994 | +358 | -15,474 | +59 | 30,398 | 51 |
| 2024-03-05 | -1,352 | +615 | -12,409 | +460 | 27,747 | 46 |
| 2024-02-27 | -1,967 | +131 | -10,896 | +960 | 25,229 | 37 |
| 2024-02-20 | -2,098 | -177 | -10,277 | +1,202 | 25,530 | 35 |
| 2024-02-13 | -1,921 | -398 | -10,124 | +1,152 | 24,769 | 37 |
| 2024-02-06 | -1,523 | +275 | -9,314 | +757 | 20,897 | 43 |
| 2024-01-30 | -1,798 | -137 | -9,481 | +1,017 | 20,679 | 39 |
| 2024-01-23 | -1,661 | -667 | -8,356 | +887 | 22,815 | 41 |
| 2024-01-16 | -994 | +624 | -9,835 | -25 | 23,286 | 51 |
| 2024-01-09 | -1,618 | +603 | -11,419 | +779 | 26,846 | 42 |
| 2024-01-02 | -2,221 | +81 | -10,299 | +1,234 | 23,579 | 33 |
| 2023-12-26 | -2,302 | +49 | -9,831 | +1,092 | 22,526 | 32 |
| 2023-12-19 | -2,351 | -284 | -9,228 | +1,305 | 23,239 | 31 |
| 2023-12-12 | -2,067 | +183 | -8,171 | +1,188 | 21,211 | 35 |
| 2023-12-05 | -2,250 | -505 | -8,145 | +1,387 | 23,035 | 33 |
| 2023-11-28 | -1,745 | -869 | -8,824 | +792 | 23,027 | 40 |
| 2023-11-21 | -876 | +468 | -7,542 | +445 | 21,939 | 53 |
| 2023-11-14 | -1,344 | +333 | -6,677 | +481 | 21,203 | 46 |
| 2023-11-07 | -1,677 | +69 | -7,406 | +794 | 21,749 | 41 |
| 2023-10-31 | -1,746 | -1,292 | -7,042 | +903 | 19,603 | 40 |
| 2023-10-24 | -454 | -781 | -7,953 | -438 | 19,678 | 60 |
| 2023-10-17 | +327 | -824 | -7,853 | -995 | 16,561 | 71 |
Year-by-year history (large speculators)
| Year | Reports | Average net | Highest | Lowest | Last report | Avg open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41 | +2,121 | +3,904 Jul 28 | -734 Jan 6 | +2,534 | 21,733 |
| 2025 | 52 | -435 | +1,841 Mar 18 | -2,486 Jul 15 | -513 | 28,987 |
| 2024 | 53 | -960 | +538 Aug 6 | -2,221 Jan 2 | -319 | 30,056 |
| 2023 | 52 | -388 | +2,232 Sep 12 | -2,351 Dec 19 | -2,302 | 16,379 |
| 2022 | 52 | +233 | +1,322 Sep 6 | -604 Jan 4 | +693 | 12,813 |
| 2021 | 52 | -1,742 | -160 Nov 23 | -4,412 Oct 26 | -542 | 9,719 |
| 2020 | 52 | -2,082 | -705 Mar 31 | -3,690 Dec 21 | -2,833 | 8,632 |
| 2019 | 52 | -857 | -142 Jan 15 | -1,354 Jul 16 | -1,029 | 4,103 |
| 2018 | 39 | -315 | -60 Oct 30 | -557 May 29 | -294 | 2,888 |
About this data
Source: the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders reports, read from the CFTC's public reporting API. Contract: CME bitcoin futures (5 BTC), CFTC contract market code 133741. Every figure is in contracts and comes from the futures-only reports: the Legacy report (dataset 6dca-aqww) for large speculators, commercials and small traders, and the Traders in Financial Futures report (dataset gpe5-46if) for leveraged funds, asset managers and dealers.
Net position = long minus short contracts; spreading positions are excluded. Weekly changes for the Legacy groups are the CFTC's own; for the TFF groups they are the difference from the previous report. The COT index and percentiles are AlphaScala calculations over the stored weekly history, which starts on Apr 10, 2018 (445 reports). The data describes what traders held on each Tuesday; it is not a forecast or a recommendation. See the methodology for how AlphaScala sources data.
FAQ
What does the Bitcoin COT report show?
The CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report breaks down open interest in CME bitcoin futures (5 BTC), CFTC contract code 133741, by type of trader. This page uses two of its reports: the Legacy report, which splits reportable traders into commercial and non-commercial, and the Traders in Financial Futures report, which splits them into dealers, asset managers, leveraged funds and other reportables. Both are the futures-only versions, so options positions are not included. The latest report here holds positions as of Oct 13, 2026.
When is the COT report released?
The CFTC collects positions as of the close of business on Tuesday and generally publishes them on Friday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. A federal holiday between the Tuesday and the Friday delays the release, typically to the following Monday (Veterans Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas weeks, for example), and the CFTC lists those dates on its release schedule in advance; a Monday holiday such as Columbus Day does not. Publication stops during a lapse in federal funding, with the missed reports released afterwards. AlphaScala checks for the new report on Friday evening and again on Monday (UTC).
Who counts as a large speculator in the COT report?
In the Legacy report, a reportable trader is classified as commercial in a commodity if it uses futures in that commodity for hedging as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.3. Traders generally get that classification by filing CFTC Form 40, and CFTC staff can reclassify them. Every other reportable trader is non-commercial, the group COT readers call large speculators. A trader can be commercial in one commodity and non-commercial in another, but not both in the same commodity.
What are leveraged funds and asset managers in the COT report?
In the Traders in Financial Futures report, leveraged funds are typically hedge funds and other money managers, including registered commodity trading advisors (CTAs), registered commodity pool operators (CPOs) and unregistered funds the CFTC identifies. Asset managers are institutional investors: pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, mutual funds and managers whose clients are mainly institutional. Dealers are the sell side, mostly large banks and dealers in securities, swaps and other derivatives.
What are non-reportable positions?
The CFTC sets a reporting level for each contract, and clearing members, futures commission merchants and foreign brokers report every trader at or above it. Non-reportable positions are what is left of open interest after subtracting all reportable positions, so the number of those traders and whether they are hedgers is unknown. They are usually read as small traders.
How is the COT index calculated?
COT index = (current net position − lowest net position in the lookback) ÷ (highest − lowest) × 100, using the weekly net position of large speculators (longs minus shorts; spreading positions are left out). 0 is the most net short, or least net long, of the lookback and 100 the most net long. AlphaScala shows 26-week, 52-week and 3-year versions, plus a percentile: the share of weeks in the window with a net position at or below the current one. Both describe positioning relative to its own history; neither is a forecast.