AlphaScala Weekly: Yen surges, jobs beat, NKE cluster buy

Good morning,

The yen ran the tape this week, with USD/JPY down 2.19% to 156.25 and GBP/JPY off 2.41%, while US equities barely budged: SPY closed +0.42% at 770.24, QQQ +0.32%. A strong jobs print kept a September Fed hike on the table heading into CPI. Four Nike insiders bought a net $2.17M over 30 days, and gold miners took the top of our model, with FLYW at 85 and NEM and HBM tied at 80. Here's what mattered.

The Week That Was

The clearest thread ran through FX. The yen strengthened across the board, dragging USD/JPY down 2.19% to 156.25, EUR/JPY off 2.22%, and GBP/JPY the biggest mover at -2.41%. The dollar was firmer against the majors elsewhere, with USD/CHF up 0.16% and the Aussie the lone gainer at +0.52% to 0.7204. Equities stayed narrow: SPY added 0.42%, small caps led with IWM +0.69%, and the Dow's DIA rose 0.47%.

Macro set the tone into the weekend. A jobs beat and a hawkish Bank of Canada hold left traders leaning toward a live September Fed meeting, per Action Forex and FXEmpire, with the market now waiting on US CPI. Gold slipped 0.45% to 4,428.91, though the miners told a different story on our tape, with Newmont and Hudbay both scoring 80 and Kinross at 79. Bitcoin gained 1.27% to 79,577.54; ether lagged, down 0.69%.

The signal tape leaned into insider conviction. Four Nike buyers put up a net $2.17M, ten TSM insiders combined for a $45K net, and three Simon Property names added $139K. On the political side, Kevin Hern was a serial seller, unloading LOW, MRSH, MDT, PG and VLTO.

Markets this week

Indices

• IWM 295.95 ▲ +0.69% from 293.93
• DIA 534.07 ▲ +0.47% from 531.57
• SPY 770.24 ▲ +0.42% from 767.05
• QQQ 719.06 ▲ +0.32% from 716.76

Crypto

• BTC/USD 79,577.54 ▲ +1.27% from 78,581.29
• ETH/USD 2,450.59 ▼ -0.69% from 2,467.65

Commodities

• XAU/USD 4,428.91 ▼ -0.45% from 4,448.8

FX

• GBP/JPY 211.21 ▼ -2.41% from 216.43
• EUR/JPY 181.46 ▼ -2.22% from 185.59
• USD/JPY 156.25 ▼ -2.19% from 159.75
• NZD/USD 0.5880 ▼ -0.62% from 0.5916
• AUD/USD 0.7204 ▲ +0.52% from 0.7167
• GBP/USD 1.35 ▼ -0.23% from 1.35
• EUR/GBP 0.8592 · +0.20% from 0.8575
• USD/CHF 0.8097 · +0.16% from 0.8084

Deal Flow

M&A

• EQT Private Equity Buys McGill and Partners Stake for $2B (Reinsurancene) EQT Private Equity agreed to buy a majority stake in specialty broker McGill and Partners for $2 billion. Steve McGill remains CEO; Warburg Pincus exits. Colleagues retain…
• ArcelorMittal Walks From Italian JV After Golden-Power Conditions (Insidermonkey) ArcelorMittal abandoned its takeover of a 51% stake in its Italian JV after the government imposed golden-power conditions, limiting workforce and structural changes.

IPOs / Listings

• Kraken Parent Payward IPO Slips to Q2 2027 (TheNewsCrypto) Kraken parent Payward pushed its IPO to Q2 2027, per CoinDesk, despite record revenue of $508M and a new LSE partnership on tokenized shares.

Funding Rounds

• Southeast Asia Crypto Funding Hits $680M, Double Last Year (Coinpaper) Southeast Asian blockchain startups raised $680M in 2026, double 2025, while deal count fell to 25 from 46 as capital concentrates on larger infrastructure plays, Tracxn data…
• Felix Pago raises $200M Series B from a16z, GC for stablecoin remittances (Crypto Briefing) Felix Pago closes $200M Series B with a16z leading equity and General Catalyst providing a $113M credit facility. The WhatsApp-based remittance platform uses USDC for backend…

Headline Roundup

Stocks

• Lululemon Founder Divorce Puts 10% Stake in Play as Stock Falls 17% (Gurufocus) The divorce of Lululemon founder Chip Wilson puts his $1B stake in the spotlight. Shares trade at 69% below GF Value after a 17% post-guidance drop.
• SMCI Alpha Score 57: Low P/S Ratio But Cash Flow Losses (Gurufocus) Super Micro Computer holds an Alpha Score of 57. P/S ratio at 0.56 is below its historical median, but negative cash flow makes valuation unreliable. Eight gurus hold shares.
• Market Reaction to CEO Exits Hinges on Timing, Context (BL) A Businessline analysis of HDFC Bank, Navin Fluorine, IndusInd Bank and Hexaware shows how surrounding circumstances turn a routine departure into a lasting stock drag or a…
• Adani Defence inks five-year AK-203 ammo supply deal with IRRPL (BL) Adani Defence will supply 7.62x39 mm ammunition for the AK-203 programme for five years, pairing locally made rifles with domestically produced rounds.
• HUF tax benefits: Salaried individuals can form one, but only with own income (Mint) Mint clarifies that salaried individuals can form an HUF for tax benefits, but the entity must have its own income from sources like rental property or investments. Salary remains…
• Mizuho Cuts Intel Target to $92 on AI Multiple Compression (Gurufocus) Mizuho cut Intel's target 15.6% to $92 on AI multiple compression but kept a Neutral rating, citing CPU supply constraints, agentic AI demand into 2027, and PC upgrade cycles as…
• Punjab fiscal risk: DA parity pledge, ₹14,191 crore arrears challenge (Mint) Punjab offers to match Centre's compensation as it fights ₹14,191 crore DA arrears order in Supreme Court. Employee unions demand withdrawal of disciplinary action before talks.
• SMCI Undervalued as NAND Boom Lifts Server Demand Signals (Gurufocus) NAND sales rose 70% in Q2, lifting the demand outlook for SMCI's servers. The stock trades below historical P/S and P/E medians, with an Alpha Score of 57 and GF Score of 84.…
• Tesla Launches Cybercab Taxi Service in Austin as P/E Nears 350 (Gurufocus) Tesla's Cybercab autonomous taxi service launched in Austin, Texas, on Wednesday. The stock trades at $376.36, 12.8% above its GF Value of $333.79, with a trailing P/E of 348.49.
• Milei Escalates Falklands Oil Row, Cites Trump Comments (Abcnews) Milei vows sanctions on Falklands oil project, cites Trump comments as US may shift stance. Sea Lion drilling by Rockhopper and Navitas at risk as Argentina escalates sovereignty…
• Telsey Lifts Five Below Target to $305, Keeps Outperform (Gurufocus) Analyst Joseph Feldman raised the Five Below target 8.9% to $305. The stock trades 18% above GF Value. Feldman's $305 target is 26% above the current price.
• GuruFocus Flags Fox Corp 11.5% Overvalued With $2.2B Insider Selloff (Gurufocus) GuruFocus estimates Fox Corp shares at $60.59 are 11.5% overvalued relative to $54.34 intrinsic value as insiders sold $2.2 billion in the past year.

Crypto

• CZ says crypto winter bets by YZi Labs will be top performers (Crypto news) Binance founder says YZi Labs deployed capital "during the depth of the crypto winter." Five disclosed bets span robotics, custody, prediction markets, AI payments and DeFi…
• FBI Seizes $560K in Crypto Intended for Hamas, IDs Thousands of Donors (Bitcoin) The FBI seized over $560,000 in cryptocurrency intended for Hamas, took control of fundraising domains, and identified thousands of potential donors, according to a Justice…
• QQQb tokenized ETF notches $1.7B in DEX volume since June (Crypto Briefing) Tokenized QQQb hit $1.7B in 30-day DEX volume, more than double SPCXb. Binance's zero-fee program, which ended Aug. 31, fueled the surge.
• SEC Prepares US Stock Markets for 23-Hour Trading (Coinpaper) SEC examines overnight liquidity, settlement and closing-price processes as NYSE proposes 23-hour trading model. Crypto's continuous markets highlight the infrastructure gap.
• Trezor Breach Expands to 80,689 Users After ShipMonk Data Found (CryptoSlate) Trezor says a logistics provider's retained records exposed contact and order data for 67,000 additional U.S. customers, expanding the incident sixfold.
• Kyrgyzstan liquidates KGST stablecoin issuer, approves crypto framework (Crypto Briefing) Kyrgyzstan's crypto council liquidates the KGST stablecoin issuer amid sanctions, while advancing a $50M gold-backed USDKG stablecoin for cross-border payments.
• Connecticut Warns of Offshore DeFi After $200,000 Loss (CrowdFundInsider) Connecticut officials warned residents about unregulated offshore DeFi platforms after a state resident lost $200,000. The alert lists GMX, dYdX, Hyperliquid and others.
• Poland prepares new crypto bill after veto override fails (Crypto Briefing) Poland's Finance Ministry is drafting a new crypto bill after parliament failed to override President Nawrocki's veto. The delay leaves Poland as the only EU member without MiCA…
• US and UK Join Forces to Target Crypto Scam Centers (The Daily Hodl) The US and UK signed a first-of-its-kind MOU to coordinate investigations into crypto scam centers that cost Americans an estimated $10 billion annually.
• Poland upholds crypto bill veto as Zondacrypto scandal widens (CT) The veto leaves Poland without a designated crypto regulator as MiCA applies, while the Zondacrypto case heads to a creditors' meeting Sept. 17.
• US and UK Joint Enforcement Targets $10B Crypto Scam Losses (Bitcoin) US and UK form enforcement alliance against crypto scam centers blamed for nearly $10 billion in annual losses, with parallel investigations, information sharing, and a scheduled…
• CFTC One-Man Show: Four Seats Empty as Crypto Waits on CLARITY Act (The Currency Analytics) The CFTC has one voting member and four vacancies. The September 15 CLARITY Act vote will test whether the White House fills the seats, reshaping crypto oversight.

Forex / Commodities

• All Eyes on US CPI After BoC Hawkish Hold, Jobs Beat (Action Forex) Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% with a hawkish tone on oil and tariffs. US payrolls surged 162k, pushing back rate-cut bets. Next week's CPI will decide the Fed's next move.
• Strong Jobs Data Keeps Fed Hike on Table for September (FXEmpire) US payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, pushing the 2-year yield to 4.41% and keeping a September Fed hike on the table. Slower wage growth and a low quits rate give the Fed…
• PLS Price-Sales Ratio at 13x vs 20x Average, GMG Yield Below 1.1% (Raskmedia) Rask Media flags GMG dividend yield at 1.09% below its 5-year average, while PLS price-sales ratio of 13x sits well under 20x mean. Sector readthrough for property and lithium.
• JHX and REH: Two ASX Building Stocks Trading Below Their Own History (Raskmedia) James Hardie's price-to-sales ratio stands at 2.93x, well below its 5-year average of 4.14x. Reece's trailing dividend yield of 1.57% is 48% above its own five-year norm.
• Four Failed Breakouts: Why Dollar, Treasury Yields and Dow Still Can't Commit (Action Forex) August payrolls jumped 162K but the dollar, yields, and Dow all failed at resistance. September 11 CPI now holds the key to whether rate hike expectations break out or fade.
• Canadian Household Wealth Seen Rising in Q2 as US CPI Takes Focus (Action Forex) Canadian household net worth likely rose in Q2 on financial asset gains. Attention shifts to US August CPI on Friday, with RBC economists forecasting a 0.4% month-on-month rise.
• Archrock Q2: Net Income Rises as Revenue Slips, Long-Term Deal Locks Cash Flow (Insidermonkey) Archrock posts mixed Q2: revenue down to $371M, net income up to $66.7M; new 8-year contract for 665k hp locks cash flow; leverage falls to 2.6x, dividend rises 10%.
• India's Bharat Vecto truck efficiency tool targets Feb 2027 launch (Rediff) Bharat Vecto, India's first fuel-efficiency and CO₂ certification tool for medium and heavy commercial vehicles, is likely ready by December with a launch at the Feb 2027 Bharat…
• Oil Surges 7% as Iran Tensions Escalate, Strait Risk at Wartime Record (Gurufocus) Brent crude hits $96.20 as U.S. escorts 17 million barrels through Hormuz. W&T Offshore's premium valuation and insider selling signal risk for oil-exposed stocks.
• Freeport-McMoRan 50.7% Above Intrinsic Value as Copper Holds $14,200 (Gurufocus) Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) trades 50.7% above intrinsic value as copper holds $14,200. Insiders sold $46M in shares; P/E at 36x signals stretched valuation.
• American Resources Corp $AREC Joins Critical Minerals Institute as Platinum Member (Gurufocus) On September 03, 2026, American Resources Corporation (ticker: AREC) announced it became the first Platinum member of the Critical Minerals Institute, marking a...
• Seaport Global Starts Ovintiv at Neutral, Valuation at 61% Premium (Gurufocus) Seaport Global initiated Ovintiv OVV with Neutral, no price target. The stock trades 61% above its GF Value, with a P/E of 19x vs 5-year median of 6.7x. Insider selling and mixed…

Smart Money

• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE LOW
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE MRSH
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE MDT
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE PG
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE VLTO
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE CL
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)
• Top insider buying: TTD: insiders net +$143.45M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: CPNG: insiders net +$136.56M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyer
• Top insider buying: GME: insiders net +$21.56M bought (90d), 3 distinct buyers

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 85/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 85 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: NEM (Newmont Corporation), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: HBM (Hudbay Minerals Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): large speculators net short 108,143 contracts, 32.3% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): large speculators net long 93,247 contracts, 29.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Japanese Yen (JPY): large speculators net short 92,227 contracts, 22.4% of open interest

Back tomorrow before the bell.