AlphaScala Daily: Bitcoin rips 5% to $77K, NKE cluster buy

Good morning.

Bitcoin ran up 5.3% overnight to $76,912, dragging ether (+2.2%) and gold ($4,590, +1.6%) along for the ride, while the dollar softened against the yen. On the tape, four Nike insiders bought over the past month for a net $2.17M, and ten more at TSM added smaller lots. FLYW tops the AlphaScala model at 85, with Newmont close behind at 81. Ed Case picked up AAPL; Michael Rulli sold CCI. Here's what matters.

Markets

• USD/JPY 158.71 ▼ -0.23% (US Dollar / Japanese Yen)
• XAU/USD 4,589.61 ▲ +1.55% (Gold)
• BTC/USD 76,912.29 ▲ +5.32% (BTC)
• ETH/USD 2,379.01 ▲ +2.24% (ETH)

Deal Flow

M&A

• Alkane Posts Record A$228.7M Profit, Maiden Dividend (Manilatimes) The Mandalay merger and a A$5,664/oz gold price drove a 590% profit surge. Alkane declared its maiden dividend and reiterated FY27 guidance of 163-177 koz at A$2,900-3,200 AISC.

Funding Rounds

• Malibu Life Raises $125M as Third Point Backs Capital Call (Reinsurancene) Malibu Life raised $125M from a placing and open offer at $14.50 a share. Third Point took its full allocation, keeping a 42.76% stake. The new equity arrives as insurers compete…

Restructuring

• Ann Taylor bets on 'This Is Ann' campaign to revive brand after bankruptcy (Marketingdive) Ann Taylor's 'This Is Ann' campaign, its first major push since 2017, aims to reconnect with shoppers after parent Ascension's bankruptcy. Includes Substack and NYFW activation.
• Binance opens exchange to AI agents, subaccount funds cap losses (Cryptopolitan) Withdrawals from Binance agent subaccounts are off by default, VP Jeff Li said. The race for AI agent access includes Coinbase, Kraken, Bitget, OKX and Gemini.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Nvidia's $105B Guarantee, $12.8B GAAP Gap: $340 Bull, $135 Bear (Financefeeds) Nvidia's Q1 GAAP earnings beat non-GAAP by $12.8bn on investment gains, raising questions about earnings quality. Vendor financing capped at $105bn. Bull $340, bear $135. Q2…

Macro

• Retail Sales Fall 0.5% in July; Consumer Confidence at Two-Year High (Internetretailing) UK retail sales dropped 0.5% in July after two months of gains; consumer confidence rose to -14 on the GFK index, its highest since early 2022.

Stocks

• Creator pay follows follower count despite brand focus on fit (Marketingdive) New CreatorIQ research shows 53% of creators with 500k+ followers feel tension between audience and brand demands. Compensation drives satisfaction more than growth.
• Delhi sees coldest July day in 3 years; Odisha flood alert (Mint) Delhi's temperature hit 29°C, the lowest for July since 2023, after 57.6 mm of rain. Odisha's Subarnarekha River swelled to 11.22 metres, above danger levels.
• UBS Boosts S&P 500 Forecast to 8,100 with Bull Run Expected Through 2027 (Blockonomi) UBS raises year-end 2026 S&P 500 target to 8,100, citing earnings strength, steady Fed policy, and AI adoption. The bank sees upside to 8,400 by mid-2027.
• Kobo Resources shareholders approve 10% rolling option plan (Financialpost) Kobo Resources shareholders approved an amendment to the long-term incentive plan, increasing potential share issuance to 10% of outstanding. The TSX Venture Exchange must still…
• Arbutus to Buy Back $230M in Shares After Moderna Settlement (Financialpost) Arbutus Biopharma plans to repurchase up to $230 million of its common shares through a modified Dutch auction, funded by cash from its March settlement with Moderna.
• Gulf & Pacific Equities Revenue Rises 4.4% in First Half (Financialpost) The Alberta-focused shopping center owner reported $2.36M in revenue for the six months ended June 30, up from $2.26M a year earlier. The company's three properties anchor rural…
• Saudi Arabia's Legal Market: The Economics of Value Capture (Argaam) A new Argaam study examines whether Saudi Arabia captures the profit from its legal services market. The answer shapes the real test of economic localization.
• ASX Slips 0.6% for the Week; US Yields Rise After Bessent Buyback (Smallcaps) ASX fell 0.6% as US yields rose after Bessent's buyback. Property and tech stocks slid; Zip lost 15%. Gold miners gained. Nvidia reports Wednesday.

Crypto

• Japan Approves Laser Digital as First New Crypto Exchange Since 2022 (Blockonomi) Nomura-backed firm cleared under Payment Services Act; plans liquidity services for domestic crypto firms before expanding to institutional trading as Japan reforms digital asset…
• X Explores Stablecoins for Creator Payouts in Monetization Overhaul (CrowdFundInsider) X, owned by Elon Musk, is exploring stablecoin payments for creators as it overhauls its monetization framework. The talks are preliminary, with no timeline or specific stablecoin…
• Why Digital Asset Treasury Metrics Need An Accounting Overhaul (Forbes) With premiums compressed, the metrics investors use to evaluate bitcoin-heavy balance sheets have not kept up. Strategy's filings show the gap: realized losses funding dividends,…
• Nomura's Laser Digital wins first Japan crypto license in 4 years (Crypto news) Nomura's Laser Digital becomes Japan's first newly registered crypto exchange in four years, supplying liquidity to domestic firms as the country classifies digital assets under…
• Nomura's Laser Digital becomes Japan's first new crypto exchange since 2022 (Crypto Briefing) Nomura's Laser Digital Japan became the first new crypto exchange registered in Japan since 2021, targeting institutional clients as the country prepares a 20% flat tax on crypto…
• Sun, WLF trade claims over arbitration hearing as USD1 freeze power looms (Cryptopolitan) Sun and World Liberty trade claims over an arbitration hearing, but the real issue is USD1's wallet-freeze power. With $4 billion in circulation across eight chains, any ruling…
• 63% of Americans Say Trump Crypto Profits Crossed a Line, Poll Shows (Decrypt) A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 63% of Americans see Trump family crypto profits as inappropriate. Half of Republicans agree business interests shape decisions.
• Capital.com Gets UAE License for Spot Crypto Trading (Blockonomi) Capital.com secured a UAE virtual asset license for spot crypto trading through its Capital Vault unit. The approval lets qualified users buy and hold digital tokens directly,…

Forex / Commodities

• Aluminum premium slips as U.S. set to cut tariffs on Canada metal (Financialpost) The U.S. regional benchmark fell 8% as the White House moved to lower tariffs on Canadian aluminum. Analysts say flows may not fully return.
• Gold rebounds 5% on debt fears, dollar weakness, bond jitters (CNBC) Gold futures rose 1.67% to $4,647.70 as Treasury buybacks and the $40 trillion U.S. debt milestone drove yields down and the dollar weaker. Analysts expect $5,400 within 12 months.
• India soybean oil imports seen at record 6.2 lakh tonnes in August: SEA (BL) India's soybean oil imports could hit a record 6.2 lakh tonnes in August, driven by competitive prices and sunflower oil disruptions, SEA President Sanjeev Asthana said.
• Alkane Resources Declares Maiden Dividend, $50M Buyback (Manilatimes) Alkane Resources declared a maiden 2.0cps fully franked dividend and a $50M buy-back after record FY26. The moves signal confidence in cash generation and balance sheet strength.
• Eurozone PMI Composite Hits Nine-Month High, Reinforces ECB Hawkish Bias (Action Forex) Manufacturing led the August uptick, with Germany's factory output at a 55-month high and hiring resuming. S&P Global sees 0.3% Q3 GDP and a hawkish ECB bias.

Smart Money

• Ed Case (D-HI): PURCHASE AAPL
• Christian D. Menefee (D-TX): SALE PINS
• Michael Rulli (R-OH): SALE CCI
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): SALE CMCSA
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 85/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 85 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: NEM (Newmont Corporation), Alpha Score 81/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 81 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: DHT (DHT Holdings, Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 173,362 contracts, 47.6% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 39,586 contracts, 40.9% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 83,673 contracts, 32.3% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: SPY gains 2% as Nasdaq leads; gold jumps 7%; insider buys MSFT
• Nasdaq: Nasdaq 100 adds 3.3% as NVDA scores 76; QQQ outruns SPY by 120bp
• Crypto: Crypto decouples as QQQ slides 2.3%; ETH leads majors with 3.9% weekly gain
• Forex: Pound gains 0.79% vs dollar; yen shorts hit 35.9% open interest
• Oil: Oil data absent; SPY slips 0.8%, QQQ drops 2.3% on the week

Back Monday before the bell.