AlphaScala Daily: Jobless claims at 8:30, NKE cluster buy

Good morning.

Weekly jobless claims are the only high-importance US print today, out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Crypto is soft into it, with ETH near 1,902 and BTC around 64,500, both down about a quarter percent; gold ticked up to 4,257. On the signal tape, four Nike insiders bought a net $2.17M over 90 days, and 10 TSM insiders showed up in a smaller cluster. Grupo Cibest tops the model at 83, with U.S. Bancorp at 80 and Kinross at 79. Here's what matters.

Markets

• XAU/USD 4,257.45 ▲ +0.25% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,902.25 ▼ -0.35% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 64,499.91 ▼ -0.26% (BTC)

Today's calendar

• United States: Unemployment Claims

Deal Flow

M&A

• Valeura Energy Q2 cash flow triples on higher oil sales, prices (Manilatimes) Valeura Energy's Q2 cash flow tripled to US$154M as oil sales jumped 56% to US$105.8/bbl. The producer maintains 2026 guidance, eyes Wassana acceleration and a credit facility for…

IPOs / Listings

• Binance Affiliates Seek $473M From RedotPay Founders (Coinspress) Binance affiliates seek $472.8M from RedotPay founders, alleging 470,000 users were diverted via unauthorized Binance Pay top-ups. RedotPay's $1B IPO plans face added scrutiny.

Headline Roundup

Macro

• US Retailers Get $100bn Tariff Refund After Supreme Court Ruling (Retailgazette) The Supreme Court struck down part of Trump's 'liberation day' tariffs, forcing the government to return $100bn to importers. Replacement duties keep pressure on retailers.

Stocks

• Yen Carry Trade Unwind Triggers Risk-Off Move (MA) Yen surges 3% as carry trade unwind accelerates after BOJ rate hike and weak U.S. jobs data. Hedge funds face margin calls, with prime brokers estimating $1.5 trillion in notional…
• India to Bar Drug Firms Submitting Fake Data for Approvals (Mint) India will debar pharma companies that submit fake data in drug approval applications, the health ministry said. The new rule closes a loophole that let firms reapply immediately…
• Ukraine's 'zero line' is so deadly troops plan every 200 meters (BI) A Ukrainian sergeant said every 200 meters of movement to reach the front line requires coordination to avoid drones and friendly fire. The 'kill zone' may double this year.
• Why Trump's $27B Commerce Equity Stakes Distort Markets (Mises) The Commerce Department's $27B in equity stakes across 30 firms, including Intel and U.S. Steel, draws bipartisan criticism over market distortion and political capitalism.
• Morningstar: Investor Timing Cost 12% of Fund Returns Over Decade (Wealthmanagement) Morningstar's Mind the Gap report: investors lost $3.8 trillion to poor timing over 10 years. Average dollar earned 8.7% vs 9.9% for funds. Allocation funds and buffer ETFs…
• Clarinetist John Finucane challenges RIAM's mandatory retirement age (RTE) John Finucane, 71, advances an age discrimination case against the Royal Irish Academy of Music over a 70-year retirement age. The WRC refused to dismiss the complaint.
• Ola Electric opens sales network to dealer partners, pivots from company stores (BL) Ola Electric opens sales and service to dealer partners after five years of company-owned stores, aiming to reach smaller towns ahead of Diwali 2026.
• Nazara Raises Rs 734 Crore in Preferential Issue; Stauffer CEO (BL) Nazara's Rs 734 crore preferential issue sees CEO-designate Raymond Stauffer invest Rs 583 crore. Proceeds target acquisitions and AI-led game development. The board also…

Crypto

• Partior-OpenAssets PoC Shows Atomic Settlement Works Across Stablecoins and Deposits (CrowdFundInsider) Partior and OpenAssets completed a proof-of-concept for atomic settlement of stablecoins and tokenized deposits. The trial showed delivery-versus-payment across three asset types,…
• Senate probes Gaza stablecoin plan as first contract awarded (Crypto Briefing) A Louisiana firm wins a Gaza outpost contract while a USD-backed stablecoin for aid faces Senate investigations over governance and private actor enrichment.
• Violent crypto attacks surge 33% with $124M in losses, France hit hardest (Crypto Briefing) France accounts for 63% of 52 wrench attacks in H1 2026, with home invasions jumping from 1 to 20 cases. Average loss per incident surged to $2.4 million.
• Seven Liquidation Cascades Undermine Common Crash Models (Crypto Daily) Seven liquidation cascades show critical slowing down fails in exogenous shocks; microstructure metric Slippage-at-Risk offers leading indicator, with 88% of forced selling within…
• Crypto Wrench Attacks Near Record Pace With $30M Stolen (Decrypt) Chainalysis counts 46 violent crypto thefts through late June, with France recording 30 incidents. Home invasions now make up 37% of cases.
• Crypto prediction markets absorb T1-Dplus KIA esports volume (Crypto Briefing) T1's Aug. 6 sweep drew heavy trading on Polymarket and Crypto.com. Neither roster has team tokens, so prediction markets carry esports' crypto volume.
• Crypto Clarity Act Talks Revive as Thune Holds Cloture on Senate Floor (Crypto Economy) Senate staff from both parties held last-minute talks as Thune delayed cloture, giving the stalled crypto bill hours to bridge divisions before August recess.
• Russia's New Crypto Law: Retail Cap at $3,700, Domestic Payments Still Banned (TheNewsCrypto) Putin signed Russia's first comprehensive crypto law. Retail investors face a 300,000-ruble annual limit; qualified investors have none. Domestic crypto payments remain banned,…

Forex / Commodities

• Mongolian Mining Sees $100M-110M H1 Profit After $19.9M Loss (Manilatimes) Mongolian Mining sees H1 net profit of USD100-110M, reversing a USD19.9M loss, on higher coal volumes and prices. Interim results land in August.
• Eurozone Retail Sales Miss Casts Doubt on Consumer-Led Recovery (Forex Live) Eurozone retail sales fell 0.3% in June, well below the 0.1% gain forecast, reversing May's revised increase and raising questions about the ECB's rate path into September.
• Yen's Rally Faces Conflicting Forecasts, Carry Trade Risks (Action Forex) Bank of America sees USD/JPY at 149 by year-end; CBA forecasts 165 by mid-2027. Carry trades return as BOJ normalization lags. U.S. July jobs data next.
• Euro and Pound Hold Gains as Markets Assess US Employment Outlook (Action Forex) ADP payrolls missed forecasts by a wide margin, reinforcing labor market concerns. EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidate near resistance as markets await Friday's NFP report.
• Natural Gas Holds $2.64 Support; WTI Crude Struggles at $75 (FXEmpire) Natural gas holds above $2.64 support after EIA reports 2.5M barrel inventory build. WTI crude consolidates near $75. OPEC+ confirms September output increase. NFP data in focus.
• Swedish CPI Eyed as Rate Path Hinges on Inflation Data (Action Forex) Swedish July CPI lands today with core seen at 0.4% y/y, a week before the Riksbank rate decision. The krona hit 10.95 against the euro, its strongest since mid-June.

Smart Money

• April McClain Delaney (D-MD): PURCHASE CHRW
• April McClain Delaney (D-MD): PURCHASE FWONK
• April McClain Delaney (D-MD): PURCHASE LTH
• April McClain Delaney (D-MD): PURCHASE BWXT
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: CIB (Grupo Cibest S.A.), Alpha Score 83/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 83 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: USB (U.S. Bancorp), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 176,310 contracts, 47.3% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 47,668 contracts, 45.3% of open interest
• COT extreme: Japanese Yen (JPY): hedge funds net short 163,412 contracts, 37.8% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: S&P 500 rises 1.07% as Amazon's 15% surge offsets Apple's 7% drop
• Nasdaq: Nasdaq 100 adds 0.86% as MSFT, NVDA rise; AAPL tumbles 7.35% on earnings
• Forex: Pound gains 0.79% vs dollar; yen shorts hit 35.9% open interest
• Oil: Oil data absent; SPY slips 0.8%, QQQ drops 2.3% on the week
• Gold: Gold flat at $4,056 as BTC rallies 2.6%, QQQ slides 2.3%

See you tomorrow before the bell.