AlphaScala Daily: Gold near 4,090, NKE insiders buy $2.17M

Good morning.

Gold is doing the talking this morning, up 0.82% to 4,089.25 while bitcoin slips to 65,106 and cable eases to 1.33. On the signal tape, four Nike insiders bought a net $2.17M over the last 90 days, the loudest cluster of the session, and ten insiders at TSM added smaller lots. TROW tops the AlphaScala model at 80/100, with gold miner KGC right behind at 79. Congressman Jim Himes, meanwhile, dumped BAC, XOM and HD. Let's dive in.

Markets

• XAU/USD 4,089.25 ▲ +0.82% (Gold)
• BTC/USD 65,106 ▼ -0.45% (BTC)

Deal Flow

M&A

• CZ Warns: Acquiring Crypto Exchanges Comes With Hidden Risks (Coingape) CZ warns acquiring a crypto exchange often inherits legacy security issues like old backdoors and hacks, not just users. BitMart and BitMEX closures add to consolidation wave.
• Vusion to Acquire In-Store Media, Betting Big on Store-Based Retail Media (Retailtechinnovationhub) Vusion agreed to acquire In-Store Media, betting that physical stores are the next big retail media channel. The deal combines Vusion's connected-store platform with In-Store…

IPOs / Listings

• CXMT becomes first major test for crypto pre-IPO futures in Asia (Crypto Briefing) ChangXin Memory Technologies raised $8.6bn on Shanghai's STAR Market while a synthetic futures contract on Hyperliquid let crypto traders bet on the outcome two weeks before…

Funding Rounds

• Tenor Raises $2.5M to Build On-Chain Lending for Institutions (Betakit) The seed round, led by Variant, comes five months after a pre-seed and targets the $200 trillion fixed-rate market with a Morpho-based platform on Base.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• How investors can benefit from India's push to reduce import dependence (Mint) Kotak report flags India's import dependence across capital, defence, energy and tech. Experts say long-term gains lie in companies that execute, not policy hype.

Macro

• Bank of Baroda says hacker got data via employee email, not core systems (Mint) Bank of Baroda confirmed a data leak after a hacker claimed 1TB of data. The lender says a compromised employee email, not core banking systems, was the source.
• Bankers want Fed reform (Americanbanker) 54% of bank leaders want the Fed to weigh a broader data set in policy decisions. Only 18% support less communication, and 13% want rate cuts during rising inflation.

Stocks

• Lodha Plans ₹9,000 Cr Land Sale to Hyperscalers for Data Centers (Mint) Lodha Developers targets ₹9,000 crore from selling 150 acres in Palava to hyperscalers, aiming to scale data centre capacity and boost annuity income.
• Enterprise AI Study: Workers Adopted AI, Companies Didn't Adapt (Prweb) A three-year study of 2,724 professionals finds employees already use AI at work. The bottleneck is organizational redesign, not technology adoption. Companies that redesign roles…
• Gujarat Shipbuilding Policy Offers 50-Year Leases, ₹27,000 Crore Target (BL) Gujarat's shipbuilding policy offers 50-year leases and capital assistance up to ₹225 crore, targeting ₹27,000 crore in investment to build a mega cluster at Kuchhadi.
• India Road Accident Data: TN Tops Crashes, UP Deadliest (BL) Tamil Nadu recorded 71,387 accidents in 2025, Uttar Pradesh 27,550 fatalities. The divergence shows contrasting road safety challenges with implications for policy and insurers.
• India Orders Energy Drink Label Removal, Rejects Industry Pushback (BL) FSSAI told PepsiCo, Red Bull, Monster, Reliance, and Hell Energy to drop "energy drink" labels. The industry has 90 days to comply after a closed-door meeting.
• Nvidia, Microsoft, SpaceX Launch AI Safety Initiative After Cyber Attack (CNBC) The Open Secure AI Alliance aims to build open tools for cyber defense after Hugging Face had to use a Chinese model to fend off an attack.
• Paradise Lost, Government Gained (Mises) John Adams predicted celebrations, but the revolutionary spirit faded. Shays' Rebellion, wartime speculation, and the push for a stronger constitution set the stage for the…
• Infosys Co-Founder to Lead India Exam Reform Panel (BL) Nandan Nilekani, co-founder of Infosys, will lead a government panel on exam reforms after NEET leaks. The appointment could open new tech contracts for the software giant.

Crypto

• KuCoin Ambassador Pogačar Wins Fifth Tour de France (Crypto Daily) KuCoin ambassador Tadej Pogačar won his fifth Tour de France title, a milestone the exchange celebrated as a shared value of endurance and long-term commitment.
• Macro Week Looms Over Crypto With Fed, Earnings, and BitMEX in Play (Crypto Economy) Crypto markets face a packed week with the Fed rate decision, PCE data, Strategy earnings, and BitMEX settlements. Bitcoin holds near $65,500 as traders weigh macro risks.
• Prediction markets hit $44.8B in monthly volume; Bitcoin slides 50% (Crypto Briefing) Polymarket and Kalshi hit a record $44.8 billion in June volume on World Cup betting, while Bitcoin slid to $64,000. The CFTC comment period on a proposed rule closes July 27.
• Stripe's Stablecoin Card Architect Exits at 100-Market Milestone (Blockonomi) Connor Fitzgerald, who built Stripe's stablecoin card program from scratch, exits as the platform reaches 100+ markets. The departure removes the architect of the operational and…
• AI Agents Will Use Crypto for Machine Payments, Coinbase CEO Says (TheNewsCrypto) Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says AI agents will drive crypto adoption through autonomous payments on Base and USDC. He predicts machine transactions will surpass human ones.
• BNY SA/NV gets MiCA authorisation as EU crypto register hits 309 (Crypto news) BNY SA/NV receives MiCA authorisation for crypto custody and transfer as ESMA adds 15 providers to the register, bringing the total to 309. Three German banks and multiple payment…
• Black Sea oil terminal resumes loadings after drone disruption (Crypto Briefing) Russia's Sheskharis terminal resumed crude loadings after drone disruptions, but recurring Black Sea threats keep oil volatility in focus for crypto markets.
• OneBullEx Mastercard Card: Crypto Spending Through Existing Rails (Coincu) OneBullEx says it has launched a Mastercard payment card, letting holders spend crypto balances at any merchant on the network. Independent verification of specifics remains…

Forex / Commodities

• Dollar Opens Lower as Ceasefire Hits Record Long Positions (Action Forex) The dollar gapped down Monday after the Middle East ceasefire surprised record speculative longs, reducing the Fed's incentive to hold rates high. The euro and yen gain.
• Man Group Discloses 1%+ Holding in AMG Critical Materials (Manilatimes) Man Group PLC disclosed a 1%+ interest in AMG Critical Materials N.V., according to a Rule 8.3 filing. The metals group is a key lithium and vanadium producer.
• ECB's Kazimir Sees at Least One More Hike, Warns Oil Shock Could Force More (Action Forex) ECB's Kazimir said at least one more rate hike is needed, warning that a worsening energy shock could require even more tightening. The next decision is Sept. 14.
• Stock futures climb as oil drops 7% ahead of Fed, Big Tech earnings (Yahoo) Stock futures rose Monday as crude oil dropped 7% on US-Iran peace hopes. The busiest week of the quarter features Big Tech earnings and a Fed decision.
• Pilbara Minerals' 92% CAGR Revenue Growth: Lithium Sector Readthrough (Raskmedia) Pilbara Minerals' FY24 revenue hit $1.25B, up 92% CAGR. Gross margin 42%, profit $257M. Low debt, but ROE 7.7% flags capital efficiency. What it means for lithium.
• WTI Holds $83 Support Ahead of OPEC+; Natural Gas Breaks Below 2.827 (FXEmpire) OPEC+ is set to decide on a 188K bpd supply increase. WTI crude tests $83 support after breaking below the 50-day EMA. Natural gas falls below long-term support at $2.827.

Smart Money

• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE BAC
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE XOM
• James A. Himes (D-CT): SALE HD
• Dan Newhouse (R-WA): PURCHASE ACN
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: TROW (T. Rowe Price Group Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: ING (ING GROEP NV), Alpha Score 75/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 75 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals, score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 174,448 contracts, 47.7% of open interest
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 49,969 contracts, 45.9% of open interest
• COT extreme: Japanese Yen (JPY): hedge funds net short 152,125 contracts, 35.9% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Nasdaq: QQQ drops 2.31% as MSFT, NVDA slide; Alpha Scores show weak sentiment across big tech
• Forex: Pound gains 0.79% vs dollar; yen shorts hit 35.9% open interest
• Oil: Oil data absent; SPY slips 0.8%, QQQ drops 2.3% on the week
• Gold: Gold flat at $4,056 as BTC rallies 2.6%, QQQ slides 2.3%
• Crypto: Crypto decouples as QQQ slides 2.3%; ETH leads majors with 3.9% weekly gain

See you tomorrow before the bell.