AlphaScala Daily: Gold above 4,129, NKE cluster buy loud

Good morning.

Gold pushed to 4,129 overnight, up 1.26%, while bitcoin slipped back near 65,900 and the dollar barely moved against the yen. The insider tape has a $2.17M net buy at Nike from four executives, plus a ten-name cluster at TSM that's more about breadth than dollars. Kinross Gold tops the model at 79, fitting given where gold sits this morning. UK CPI drops before the US open and sets the tone for the pound. Let's dive in.

Markets

• XAU/USD 4,129.01 ▲ +1.26% (Gold)
• BTC/USD 65,886.97 ▼ -1.01% (BTC)
• ETH/USD 1,923.64 ▼ -0.33% (ETH)

Today's calendar

• United Kingdom: CPI y/y

Deal Flow

M&A

• Tesla Investors Press for SpaceX Merger Details Ahead of Earnings (BI) Ahead of Tesla's Q2 earnings call, at least 20 investor questions on a forum raised the possibility of a merger with SpaceX. One retail investor representing 100,000 shares asked…
• Waitrose to Open at Redevco's Chelmer Village Park (Retailtimes) Waitrose's new Chelmsford store at Redevco's Chelmer Village park shows retailer demand for convenience-led retail parks. Redevco acquired the park as part of a £518 million…
• Wipro Consumer Care Buys Philippines' S Brands, Expanding in SEA (BL) Wipro Consumer Care acquires Philippines' S Brands, adding 45% market share hair conditioner brand. Revenue from Philippines to exceed ₹1,000 crore, CEO says.

IPOs / Listings

• Shein Hong Kong IPO Clears Hurdle. Valuation at $40-50B Faces Investor Skepticism (Retailtimes) Shein received approval for a Hong Kong IPO, seeking $40-50B valuation, less than half its 2022 peak. Net profit guidance of $2B in 2025 suggests cash generation despite…
• Jersey Mike's IPO filing reveals $41 million jet, 7,500-store plan (BI) Jersey Mike's S-1 filing shows plans for up to 7,500 U.S. stores, a $41 million jet for founder Peter Cancro, and $105 million in family payouts before the Blackstone deal.

Funding Rounds

• SEC Alleges $22M Crypto Mining Scheme Paid 13% to Operations (The Daily Hodl) SEC alleges Mining Automatic raised $22M from 380 investors but spent only 13% on mining, with founder Zan Shaikh using funds for cars and real estate.

Funds

• Man Group Discloses 3.9% AMG Stake Ahead of AGM (Manilatimes) Man Group disclosed a 3.9% stake in AMG Critical Materials ahead of the June 12 AGM, signaling hedge fund interest in the lithium and vanadium supply chain.

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Overbought energy stocks test Q2 earnings run (XLE) (SA) XLE's RSI above 70 as Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips prepare to report. Traders watch whether earnings justify recent gains.
• Trident Q1 profit up 10%, board clears new subsidiary (BL) Trident's standalone profit rose 10% to ₹152.93 crore in Q1 FY27, driven by a jump in yarn segment earnings. The board also approved a new subsidiary for overseas brand-building.

Stocks

• Utah Grief Nonprofit Passes 10,000 Children Helped (Prweb) The Sharing Place opened a fourth Utah location and said it has served 10,000 children and teens since its founding. No family is turned away for inability to pay.
• U.S.-Iran Strikes Escalate: Oil at $90, Consumer Cushion Deflates (CNBC) Oil tops $90, 10-year yield above 4.6%, and consumers lose $1,100 average as savings rate drops to 3%. Economists warn of recession risk if oil stays elevated. Fed likely holds…
• Evalueserve Names Wipro Veteran Nitin Narkhede as CTO (Prweb) Nitin Narkhede, former Wipro Lab45 GM, joins Evalueserve as CTO to lead AI and engineering strategy. The company's AI reaches 30% of the Fortune 500.
• Continuous Feedback at Scale: Cutting Performance Review Pain (Talentculture) Annual reviews and cascading goals often become a burden. Continuous feedback at scale, paired with manager training and outcome links, builds a high-performance culture.
• Sana Biotechnology's $1B Valuation Hinges on Preclinical Autoimmune Bet (SA) Sana Biotechnology's $1B market cap rests on a preclinical autoimmune pipeline with no approved products or Phase 1 data. A single clinical failure would erase most of the value.
• Sainsbury's Local Opens at Wirral Waters, Regeneration Milestone (Retailtimes) The 4,300 sq ft store created 17 jobs and was built in under five months, the latest sign of accelerating development at the 500-acre Wirral Waters project in Liverpool City…
• Kellogg’s Bluey Snack Bars to Launch in UK Retailers (Retailtimes) Kellogg’s brings Bluey snack bars to UK shelves from July 31, capitalising on the cartoon’s 12.8 billion UK viewer minutes. £1.75 per 4-pack.
• Klarna's in-store push with lululemon targets $28 trillion physical retail (Retailtimes) Klarna brings QR-code based BNPL to lululemon stores in UK and Germany, targeting the $28 trillion physical retail market. The move builds on a five-year online partnership.

Crypto

• US seeks forfeiture of $25M in crypto linked to international fraud networks (Crypto Briefing) The DOJ is targeting $25M in crypto linked to international fraud networks, part of a broader push against digital asset laundering. The action follows a $225M seizure in June…
• Trump Token Rule Bars Officials From Issuing Crypto, DOJ Enforces (Crypto Daily) Trump signed an ethics rule barring federal officials from issuing crypto, with DOJ enforcement. The Block reports scope includes president, VP, Congress. Practical guidance for…
• South Korea's Crypto Volume Craters 89% as KOSPI Hits 8,800 (Crypto Briefing) Korean crypto volumes fell 89% YoY as the KOSPI surged past 8,800 on AI stock demand. The kimchi premium flipped negative, signaling a shift in retail sentiment.
• MARA up 5% as CLARITY Act optimism lifts crypto miners (AMBCrypto) MARA shares rose 5% as the CLARITY Act gained momentum. Mining stocks have outperformed BTC by 46% on average YTD.
• BIS: Stablecoins Evade Capital Controls in 130 Economies (Coinspress) The BIS warns dollar-backed stablecoins bypass capital controls in emerging markets, creating new challenges for central banks managing currency demand. The study covers 130+…
• US seeks forfeiture of $25M in crypto tied to romance scams (CT) The DOJ filed five civil forfeiture complaints seeking $25M+ in crypto linked to romance and investment scams that hit thousands of victims across the US and Canada.
• Digital Chamber Sues Illinois Over First-Ever 0.2% Crypto Tax (Bitcoin) The trade group argues the 0.2% gross-receipts tax violates state and federal law, and could set a dangerous precedent for other states.
• Talos Adds Kalshi Crypto Perps, Event Contracts to Execution Network (Crypto Briefing) Kalshi's Bitcoin perps crossed $1B in first-week volume. The CFTC-regulated derivatives are now accessible to Talos's institutional clients. CME's alpha score is 55.

Forex / Commodities

• US Natural Gas Risk: EQT, Expand, Talen Alpha Scores Mixed (SA) EQT and Expand show Mixed Alpha Scores of 45 and 41, while Talen scores 32 Weak. The natural gas market faces a risk of supply oversupply through 2026 before a potential…
• Distillate Capital Fund Lags as AI Enthusiasm Whipsaws Markets (SA) Distillate Capital's U.S. FSV strategy returned 2.24% YTD, trailing the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 Value, as AI-driven market swings pushed valuations higher, the firm said.
• Acuity Trading Partners With Bullwaves on Platform Intelligence (Financefeeds) Acuity Trading integrates its market intelligence suite into Bullwaves' platform, giving traders sentiment, event analysis and trade ideas inside the interface. The deal follows…
• Saudi Kayan Loss Widens, Accumulated Losses Hit 47.9% of Capital (English) Saudi Kayan's Q2 net loss rose 35.5% to SAR 672.8M on higher costs and supply chain issues. Accumulated losses reached SAR 7.19B, 47.9% of capital.
• Brent Crude Eyes $98 as Supply Risks Mount, Inventory Data Awaited (FXEmpire) Geopolitical strikes, a CPC terminal halt, and falling Saudi exports tighten oil supply. Brent above $92 eyes $98 resistance. Natural gas sideways near $2.88. WTI breaks trend,…
• Sipchem swings to SAR 807M loss as revenues halve in H1-26 (English) Revenues dropped 46% to SAR 2 billion as supply chain disruptions and unsold inventory drove a SAR 807 million H1 loss. Impairment charges and maintenance costs added pressure.
• Norsk Hydro CEO Reports Strong Q2 Results, Middle East Impact Lingers (SA) Norsk Hydro CEO Eivind Kallevik reported strong Q2 results driven by operational performance, while the Middle East situation continues to affect the company's border picture.
• Akzo Nobel's margins squeezed as paint demand disappoints in Q2 (SA) Akzo Nobel missed Q2 Ebitda estimates as decorative paint volumes slid 4% in Europe. The paintmaker held full-year guidance near €1.5-1.6 billion despite margin compression from…

Smart Money

• Dan Newhouse (R-WA): PURCHASE ACN
• Dan Newhouse (R-WA): SALE ADBE
• Dan Newhouse (R-WA): PURCHASE AMCR
• Dan Newhouse (R-WA): PURCHASE APH
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: TROW (T. Rowe Price Group Inc.), Alpha Score 78/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 78 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 77/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 77 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: BRAI (Braiin Ltd), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 62,766 contracts, 53.1% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 176,279 contracts, 47.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 72,955 contracts, 36.6% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: S&P 500 edges down 0.8% as tech lags; Alpha Scores flag weak sentiment in mega-caps
• Nasdaq: QQQ drops 2.31% as MSFT, NVDA slide; Alpha Scores show weak sentiment across big tech
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin gains 2.6% as Nasdaq drops 2.3%; CFTC prepares crypto oversight
• Crypto: BTC slides 4% alongside gold as QQQ dips just 0.45%; LAB short-squeeze jumps 28%
• Forex: Euro and sterling sink as dollar rally broadens; EUR long squeeze, GBP record short test support

See you tomorrow before the bell.