AlphaScala Weekly: WTI jumps 4.8% on Hormuz, tech drags QQQ

Good morning,

Oil ran the show. WTI closed at $81.75, up 4.84% on the week after reports of a Strait of Hormuz closure, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.31% with Microsoft and Nvidia each shedding more than 1.8% in the latest session. Bitcoin ignored the equity slide and added 2.59% to $63,949, and Ether climbed 3.89%. KGC topped AlphaScala's model at 79/100 as Alpha Scores flagged soft sentiment across Visa, Nvidia, and Microsoft. Here's what mattered.

The Week That Was

The week split cleanly between energy and tech. WTI's 4.84% jump to $81.75 came with Gulf tensions and a reported Hormuz closure, and the safe-haven bid stayed muted; gold added just 0.24% to $4,010 and silver actually lost 2.86%. Stocks leaned defensive. QQQ dropped 2.31%, worse than the S&P 500's 0.80% slip and the Dow's 0.71% fade, with mega-cap weakness the common thread. Small caps held flat, IWM up 0.21%.

Crypto detached from the equity tape. Bitcoin rose 2.59% and Ether 3.89% while the Nasdaq fell, and the CFTC moved ahead on its expanded oversight role. In FX, the dollar softened broadly; NZD/USD led at +1.49%, sterling gained 0.79% to 1.35, and USD/CAD fell nearly a full percent to 1.40.

On the signal tape, KGC (79) and TROW (77) sat atop the AlphaScala model, a defensive gold-and-asset-manager pairing that fit the risk mood. Insiders leaned into consumer and semis: four buyers at Nike put up a net $2.17M, and ten TSM insiders bought over the last 30 days. Rick Larsen's disclosed activity showed purchases in APH and MCK against sales in ABT and SPGI.

This Week's Briefings

• Nasdaq: QQQ drops 2.31% as MSFT, NVDA slide; Alpha Scores show weak sentiment across big tech The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.31% for the week, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.80% decline. Microsoft and Nvidia each lost more than 1.8% in the latest session, while Apple was flat. AlphaScala's Alpha Scores for six megacap…
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin gains 2.6% as Nasdaq drops 2.3%; CFTC prepares crypto oversight Bitcoin climbed 2.6% to $63,949 this week, defying a tech-led selloff that dragged the Nasdaq down 2.3% and the S&P 500 down 0.8%. The CFTC prepared for its expanded crypto oversight role under the CLARITY Act, with a…
• Sp500: S&P 500 edges down 0.8% as tech lags; Alpha Scores flag weak sentiment in mega-caps The S&P 500 slipped 0.8% for the week to 743.16, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.31%. Bitcoin rose 2.59% and gold added 0.24%. AlphaScala’s Alpha Scores showed weak sentiment in Visa, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple. With no…

Markets this week

Indices

• QQQ 695.30 ▼ -2.31% from 711.74
• SPY 743.16 ▼ -0.80% from 749.17
• DIA 520.74 ▼ -0.71% from 524.47
• IWM 294.10 ▲ +0.21% from 293.48

Crypto

• ETH/USD 1,845.81 ▲ +3.89% from 1,776.72
• BTC/USD 63,949.4 ▲ +2.59% from 62,334.52

Commodities

• WTI/USD 81.75 ▲ +4.84% from 77.98
• XAG/USD 56.01 ▼ -2.86% from 57.66
• XAU/USD 4,010.64 ▲ +0.24% from 4,001.23

FX

• NZD/USD 0.5836 ▲ +1.49% from 0.5750
• USD/CAD 1.40 ▼ -0.98% from 1.42
• AUD/USD 0.6973 ▲ +0.80% from 0.6918
• GBP/USD 1.35 ▲ +0.79% from 1.33
• GBP/JPY 218.50 ▲ +0.77% from 216.83
• USD/CHF 0.8085 ▼ -0.77% from 0.8148
• EUR/JPY 185.78 ▲ +0.48% from 184.89
• EUR/USD 1.14 ▲ +0.45% from 1.14

Deal Flow

M&A

• Korean Air Swings to Net Loss as Cargo Revenue Slumps (Rttnews) Korean Air posted a Q2 net loss as cargo revenue slid 17% and the won weighed. Operating profit missed estimates. The Asiana merger awaits global clearance.
• Stripe, Advent Offer $53 Billion for PayPal in Blockbuster Deal (Bitcoin) Stripe and Advent bid $53B for PayPal, uniting two stablecoin giants. The offer is a 28% premium but far below PayPal's pandemic peak. Board decision and antitrust review ahead.
• SBI Holdings Takes Majority Stake in Singapore Crypto Exchange Coinhako (Blockonomi) SBI Holdings acquired a majority stake in Coinhako, a MAS-licensed crypto exchange, to bolster its Singapore hub, accelerate stablecoin and cross-border trading.
• Bybit Buys NOBI to Tap Indonesia's 21 Million Crypto Users (The Currency Analytics) Bybit acquires local exchange NOBI for a foothold in Indonesia's fast-growing crypto market. Integration risks, regulatory unknowns, and user trust hang in the balance.
• Bybit Buys NOBI Majority Stake, Launches Regulated Indonesia Exchange (Coingape) Bybit acquires majority stake in Indonesian crypto exchange NOBI and launches Bybit Indonesia, a locally regulated platform under OJK supervision, tapping 22.4 million registered…
• Aduro Launches Dedicated Therapy Benefit for Self-Insured Employers (Prweb) Aduro acquires Trusana, launches mental health benefit with employed therapists, not rented networks, for self-insured employers. The care connects to physical health.
• Prashant Jain Buys Som Distilleries Stake as Stock Hits 52-Week Low (Rakesh-jhunjhunwala) Prashant Jain acquires 1.22% in Som Distilleries at 52-week low; Dolly Khanna exits. Company invests ₹600 crore in Uttar Pradesh plant, bets on premium whisky.
• USA Rare Earth Names Thras Moraitis CEO as Humpton Retires (Manilatimes) USA Rare Earth CEO Barbara Humpton to retire Oct. 1; Thras Moraitis, CEO of Serra Verde, to succeed as merger integration nears. Michael Blitzer becomes executive chairman.
• Azimut Raises C$7M in Flow-Through Financing for Quebec Gold (Manilatimes) Azimut Exploration raises C$7M via flow-through and hard-dollar shares for Quebec gold and base-metal projects. Agnico Eagle and Centerra hold stakes.
• Cerrado Gold Buys Out Sprott Streams for $31.34M (Manilatimes) Cerrado Gold paid $31.34M to cancel Sprott streaming agreements on its Argentina mine and Portugal project, freeing up full gold production revenue. Cash, shares, and deferred…

IPOs / Listings

• Saudi IPO Pipeline Set for H2 2026 Pickup, BSF Capital Says (Argaam) BSF Capital's Amir Riad sees a strong pipeline of listing-ready companies driving a pickup in Saudi IPO activity by H2 2026, after a slower period on Tadawul.
• SpaceX IPO and Iran War Lift Q2 Earnings for Big Banks (CNBC) Q2 earnings kick off Tuesday with JPMorgan, Bank of America, and others. Trading revenue could jump 14%, investment banking 26%. The sustainability question lingers.
• Cadillac Mines Prices C$415M IPO with Agnico Eagle as Anchor (Manilatimes) Cadillac Mines priced 50.2M shares at C$6.90, with Agnico Eagle taking C$60M in a private placement. The C$415M IPO includes a treasury piece and a secondary sale by existing…
• Moonshot AI Targets $30B Hong Kong IPO as Revenue Hits $300M (AMBCrypto) Moonshot AI is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO at a valuation above $30 billion. Revenue hit $300 million in mid-June. The AI token market cap sits at $21.7 billion as crypto stays…

Funding Rounds

• Vibe coding startup Emergent hits $1.5B valuation on $130M round (Mint) Emergent hits $1.5B valuation after raising $130M in Series C funding. The vibe coding platform is at $120M ARR and plans to expand into Europe and Australia.

Restructuring

• Dutch Crypto Platform Knaken Bankrupt on €7M Customer Shortfall (Cryip) A Rotterdam court declared Knaken bankrupt after prosecutors said €7 million in customer funds cannot be accounted for. The ruling covers two entities.
• Knaken Bankruptcy Leaves 30,000 Users, €7 Million Missing (Blockonomi) A Rotterdam court declared Knaken bankrupt after finding a €7 million shortfall in customer funds. About 30,000 users lost access as regulators investigate the exchange's collapse.

Funds

• Man Group PLC Takes 1.02% Stake in AMG Critical Materials (Manilatimes) Man Group PLC disclosed a 1.02% interest in AMG Critical Materials, with purchases and sales around £17.50. The filing reveals hedge fund positioning in the critical materials…

Headline Roundup

Earnings

• Raymond James Gets Buy Rating After Earnings Preview, Investor Day (SA) Raymond James upgraded to Buy after a Seeking Alpha analyst cites below-consensus Q3 and long-term targets. Alpha Score 39/100, Mixed.
• Scandic Hotels Group Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation Released (SA) Scandic Hotels Group published its Q2 2026 earnings presentation Wednesday, July 15, ahead of its analyst call. The slides cover revenue, occupancy, and outlook.
• Stock futures edge higher ahead of big tech earnings (SPX:) (SA) S&P 500 futures inch up as traders eye Microsoft and Alphabet earnings, rising yields, and Middle East risks. JOLTS data due later Tuesday.

Macro

• Iran Strikes Gulf States, Says Strait of Hormuz Closed After US Assaults (Economictimes) Iran struck Qatar, UAE, and Oman after U.S. assaults, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed. The blockade drives oil prices higher ahead of U.S. elections.
• US Resumes Iran Strikes After Pause as Oil Breaks $90 (Nakedcapitalism) Iran said it will enter a phase of "complete offense" if US strikes continue. The US resumed bombing after a one-night pause. Brent crude hit $90 a barrel. A Houthi blockade of…
• Strait of Hormuz Traffic Near Standstill After Iran Hits Vessels (Financialpost) Transponder data shows Strait of Hormuz traffic near standstill after Iran struck vessels. A bulk carrier and LPG tanker attempted transit. UKMTO reports a vessel on fire after a…

Stocks

• Ukraine's Ground Robots and Interceptor Drones Reshape Battlefield (BI) Ukraine says forces kill Russian troops faster than Moscow can replace them. New robots aim to sustain that ratio, pulling soldiers from deadly front lines.
• Aon Expands Bobko's Role in Political Risk and Crisis Strategy (Reinsurancene) Aon named Vlad Bobko global head of strategy for political risk and crisis management, combining his regional CEO role with a global mandate as geopolitical risks rise.
• Temple View Capital Partners With Oaktree to Back Private Lending (Prweb) Oaktree makes a strategic investment and forward capital commitment in the residential transition lender, backing its $5B origination platform.
• Crispy Cones Opens Denver Store After $200K Shark Tank Deal (S31833) The ice cream chain, which grew from a roadside tent to 18 states, bought a Denver building for $400,000. The second Colorado location tests franchise demand as Corcoran's 20%…
• Quadient UK open locker network surpasses 3,000 locations (Retailtimes) Quadient's UK open locker network hits 3,000 locations, strengthening its parcel delivery infrastructure. The Paris-based automation platform continues to expand its Parcel…
• ITR 2026: Do You Need Physical Copies of Digital Tax Documents? (Mint) Tax experts say digital records are enough for ITR filing, but key documents like Form 16 and bank statements must be accessible for verification.
• Book Exposes H-1B 'Modern Slavery' in IT Outsourcing (BL) Tanul Thakur's Wild Wild East chronicles exploitation of Indian workers and displacement of US tech staff by desi consultancies and IT giants.
• AI Consulting Leaders Named as $2.5 Trillion Spend Forces Cost Reckoning (Prweb) Global AI spending hits $2.52 trillion as The Consulting Report names top consultants. The list spans PwC to General Dynamics, signaling broad demand for AI advisory services.
• KFC Launches Crispy Naan Menu in UK Summer Push (Retailtimes) KFC is swapping its burger bun for naan bread in a five-week summer promotion. The chain also added two permanent matcha drinks to its Kwench range.
• Pooch & Mutt's sister brand Purr & Meow gets a cat-focused overhaul (Retailtimes) Purr & Meow splits into Primal and Superfoods ranges, with recipes focused on gut health and premium animal protein. CEO Paul Dennison sees the cat food category as ripe for a…
• Sim Racing Lounge Velocity Opens Second Texas Venue in Dallas (Restaurantnews) Velocity | Sim Racing Lounge opens its first Dallas location July 25, adding a second Texas venue. The concept pairs racing simulators with chef-curated dining and a central bar.
• Juice It Up! Same-Store Sales Up 9.2%, System Sales Rise 13% (Restaurantnews) Juice It Up! posted 13% system sales growth and 9.2% same-store sales in H1 2026, driven by a 7.3% traffic jump. The chain aims to double its unit count in four years.

Crypto

• Chai Discovery's $400M Raise: AI Biotech Beats Blockchain for Pharma (Crypto Briefing) Chai Discovery, backed by Pfizer and Eli Lilly, is raising $400M at $3.4B. Its AI achieves 20% hit rates on antibody design, 200x better than prior methods. The read-through for…
• KOSPI crash triggers circuit breaker, crypto faces risk-on unwind (Cryptopolitan) South Korea's KOSPI crashed 8.95%, triggering a circuit breaker as leveraged retail positions unwound. Bitcoin rejected $64K, with contagion fears ahead of the U.S. open.
• ECB Picks 36 Firms for Digital Euro Pilot, Including Deutsche Bank and Revolut (CoinDesk) The ECB picked 36 banks and payment firms, including Deutsche Bank and Revolut, to test a digital euro starting in late 2025. The project targets a 2029 launch and aims to counter…
• Clarity Act Odds Drop as Traders Doubt 2026 Law (Bitcoin) Polymarket 'yes' odds fall to 39% on Clarity Act becoming law in 2026, even as Kalshi bettors put 68% chance on a Senate vote before August recess.
• MetaMask code exposed to North Korea-linked contractor for weeks (CryptoSlate) A contractor linked to North Korea accessed MetaMask code for weeks. Consensys halted releases, found no compromise. FBI warns of similar IT worker infiltration tactics.
• South Korea tax officials push law change to seize self-custody crypto (Cryptopolitan) South Korea's tax agency wants to rewrite seizure laws for self-custodied crypto after wallets were drained by suspects holding private keys. The Supreme Court ruling that Bitcoin…
• Houthi Threats Revive Focus on Crypto Sanctions Risk (Crypto Briefing) Over $900 million in crypto flows tied to Houthi-linked addresses, blockchain data shows. The threat against Saudi infrastructure adds a sanctions angle to the conflict.
• FanDuel founder shuts crypto casino to focus on AI dealers (Crypto Briefing) BetHog is winding down its consumer gambling platform to focus on Sentient Studios' AI-powered live dealer software, aiming to compete with Evolution.
• BOK Sets September for Live CBDC Transaction Tests (Crypto Economy) South Korea's Project Hangang enters second phase with nine banks, targeting September for live deposit-token transactions. First phase saw 114,880 transactions.
• Tokenized stocks reach record $2.3B market cap as adoption grows (Crypto Briefing) Ondo Finance leads with $955M in onchain equities as the tokenized stock market cap hits $2.3B. Ethereum holds 34% market share. Solana trading volumes surged sixfold in H1 2026.
• Standard Chartered-Backed HKDAP to Launch in HK by Late July (Blockonomi) Anchorpoint, backed by Standard Chartered, will deploy HKDAP stablecoin in Hong Kong by late July. The token is fully backed by HKD reserves and tested on Ethereum mainnet.
• Crypto Market Cap Sheds $304.8B in 2026 Q2; Bitcoin Down 14% (Cointribune) Crypto market cap fell 12.6% to $2.1 trillion, lowest since Sept 2024. Bitcoin dropped 14%, Ethereum 25%. Trading volumes plunged 21% QoQ. Prediction markets surged 48.7% to…

Forex / Commodities

• EUR/INR: Oil Risk Tilts the Pair Higher, but Rupee Support Caps the Run (InvestingCube) The rupee takes the direct hit from higher crude, while the euro is only indirectly affected. That asymmetry gives EUR/INR a mild upside bias, but domestic support caps the move.
• Oil Surges 4% on Strait of Hormuz Closure; Equities, Gold Fall (Forex Live) WTI crude climbed to $74.33, Brent to $79.10 after US-Iran strikes resumed. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, Nasdaq futures lost 1.4% as risk appetite faded.
• Fed Beige Book: Economy Growing, Inflation Easing, Tariff Risks Linger (Economictimes) The Fed's Beige Book showed seven districts reporting growth and cooling labor markets. Contacts flagged fuel costs and tariff uncertainty as risks ahead of the May rate decision.
• Brent Oil Hits One-Month High as Strait of Hormuz Closure Stirs Supply Fears (Action Forex) Brent crude rose to a one-month high after the Strait of Hormuz closure, breaking above $80 and the 200-day moving average. The golden cross signals continued gains.
• Oil pangs resurface for rupee, options market gauge signals bearish bias (The Economic Times) The rupee options market tilts bearish as oil prices climb. Risk-reversal skews widen, traders say, signaling more hedging against rupee weakness. RBI steps in; bias persists.
• Forex: the Dollar's Rivals Are Not Resting on Their Laurels (Action Forex) Futures see 81% chance of Fed hike in 2026; Brent above $90 keeps inflation sticky. Euro, pound, yen react to central bank signals. Traders eye data.
• BIYA, GVH, ADVB, SDOT: Premarket Movers From a Quiet Start (Rttnews) BIYA rose 6.2% in thin premarket trade, followed by GVH, ADVB, and SDOT. No news drove the moves.
• Mediators Propose 10-Day Truce to Revive Iran Deal (Forex Live) A senior Iranian source said mediators have proposed a 10-day halt to strikes. Risk assets rallied and oil extended losses as diplomatic channels remain open.
• Rupee at two-month low as oil prices stay in focus (The Economic Times) Rupee hit 83.52, its lowest since June, as oil importers bought dollars and the greenback firmed. RBI likely intervened. Traders watch 83.60-83.65 zone.
• Defense Metals CEO to Pitch Rare Earth Project at July 22 Virtual Conference (Manilatimes) Defense Metals CEO Mark Tory will present at the Precious Metals & Critical Minerals Virtual Investor Conference on July 22, pitching the company's Wicheeda rare earth project in…
• STNG Q2: Product-Tanker Rates, Fleet Expansion in Focus (Manilatimes) Scorpio Tankers reports Q2 earnings July 30. The 74-vessel fleet, averaging 10.1 years, faces rate pressure from six new MR builds and the wider orderbook.
• Sovereign Gold Bond investors earn up to 44% despite price correction (BL) SGB holders see 34-44% annual returns despite gold's correction. Tax exemption now limited to initial subscribers who hold to maturity. Gold ETFs emerge as alternative.

Smart Money

• Rick Larsen (D-WA): SALE ABT
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): PURCHASE APH
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): PURCHASE MCK
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): SALE SPGI
• Kevin Hern (R-OK): EXCHANGE XOM
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE AGX
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)
• Top insider buying: TTD: insiders net +$143.45M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyers
• Top insider buying: CPNG: insiders net +$136.56M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyers
• Top insider buying: GME: insiders net +$21.56M bought (90d), 3 distinct buyers

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: TROW (T. Rowe Price Group Inc.), Alpha Score 77/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 77 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 77/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 77 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• Alpha Score top: STGW (Stagwell Inc), Alpha Score 75/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 75 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 62,766 contracts, 53.1% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 176,279 contracts, 47.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 72,955 contracts, 36.6% of open interest

Back tomorrow before the bell.