AlphaScala Daily: NKE cluster buy, KGC tops the model

Good morning.

Four Nike insiders put down a net $2.17M over the past month, the loudest signal on today's tape by a wide margin. Gold sits near $4,012 and Kinross (KGC) tops the AlphaScala model at 79, with T. Rowe Price and Flywire close behind at 77. Ten TSM insiders bought too, though the net was a modest $45K. Rep. Rick Larsen sold ABT and picked up APH and McKesson, while Canadian CPI is the only real timing risk on an otherwise quiet calendar. Here's what matters.

Markets

• ETH/USD 1,877.61 ▲ +0.29% (ETH)

Today's calendar

• Canada: Trimmed CPI y/y
• Canada: Median CPI y/y
• Canada: CPI m/m

Deal Flow

M&A

• Prashant Jain Buys Som Distilleries Stake as Stock Hits 52-Week Low (Rakesh-jhunjhunwala) Prashant Jain acquires 1.22% in Som Distilleries at 52-week low; Dolly Khanna exits. Company invests ₹600 crore in Uttar Pradesh plant, bets on premium whisky.
• USA Rare Earth Names Thras Moraitis CEO as Humpton Retires (Manilatimes) USA Rare Earth CEO Barbara Humpton to retire Oct. 1; Thras Moraitis, CEO of Serra Verde, to succeed as merger integration nears. Michael Blitzer becomes executive chairman.
• Azimut Raises C$7M in Flow-Through Financing for Quebec Gold (Manilatimes) Azimut Exploration raises C$7M via flow-through and hard-dollar shares for Quebec gold and base-metal projects. Agnico Eagle and Centerra hold stakes.
• Cerrado Gold Buys Out Sprott Streams for $31.34M (Manilatimes) Cerrado Gold paid $31.34M to cancel Sprott streaming agreements on its Argentina mine and Portugal project, freeing up full gold production revenue. Cash, shares, and deferred…

IPOs / Listings

• Cadillac Mines Prices C$415M IPO with Agnico Eagle as Anchor (Manilatimes) Cadillac Mines priced 50.2M shares at C$6.90, with Agnico Eagle taking C$60M in a private placement. The C$415M IPO includes a treasury piece and a secondary sale by existing…
• Moonshot AI Targets $30B Hong Kong IPO as Revenue Hits $300M (AMBCrypto) Moonshot AI is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO at a valuation above $30 billion. Revenue hit $300 million in mid-June. The AI token market cap sits at $21.7 billion as crypto stays…

Funds

• Man Group PLC Takes 1.02% Stake in AMG Critical Materials (Manilatimes) Man Group PLC disclosed a 1.02% interest in AMG Critical Materials, with purchases and sales around £17.50. The filing reveals hedge fund positioning in the critical materials…

Headline Roundup

Macro

• US Resumes Iran Strikes After Pause as Oil Breaks $90 (Nakedcapitalism) Iran said it will enter a phase of "complete offense" if US strikes continue. The US resumed bombing after a one-night pause. Brent crude hit $90 a barrel. A Houthi blockade of…
• Strait of Hormuz Traffic Near Standstill After Iran Hits Vessels (Financialpost) Transponder data shows Strait of Hormuz traffic near standstill after Iran struck vessels. A bulk carrier and LPG tanker attempted transit. UKMTO reports a vessel on fire after a…

Stocks

• Book Exposes H-1B 'Modern Slavery' in IT Outsourcing (BL) Tanul Thakur's Wild Wild East chronicles exploitation of Indian workers and displacement of US tech staff by desi consultancies and IT giants.
• Saudi Arabia Opens One-Year Multi-Entry Umrah Visa (Argaam) Saudi Arabia's new one-year multiple-entry Umrah visa allows a 90-day cumulative stay, removing the per-trip visa requirement for repeat pilgrims.
• Meta's AI Spend Risk: Multiple Paths to Monetization (SA) Meta's heavy AI spending without a cloud platform has been a risk. A Seeking Alpha analysis points to multiple paths to monetization, from ad targeting to content recommendations,…
• Bravo Store Systems and Entrupy Partner for Pawnbroker Authentication (Prweb) Bravo Store Systems partners with Entrupy to give pawnbrokers smartphone-based authentication for luxury goods, protecting margins and providing certificates of authenticity.
• Naples Agent's $423M Year Signals Luxe Market Strength (Prweb) The Agency's Chris Resop closed $423M in 2025 sales, including an $85M record in Naples, ranking #1 across the firm and #20 nationally.
• Exeter 1031 Exchange Adds Veteran Steven Knight in Houston (Prweb) Exeter 1031 Exchange hires Steven Knight as exchange officer in Houston, adding over five years of industry experience to support Texas real estate investors and advisors.
• Almoosa Health SAR 10.2M Block Trade Hits Tadawul (Argaam) A SAR 10.2 million block trade in Almoosa Health shares crossed Tadawul Monday, representing roughly 0.24% of the company's outstanding shares at the last closing price.
• Aadhaar app hits 40M downloads; UIDAI extends free update window (Mint) India's new Aadhaar app crossed 40 million downloads since January. UIDAI extended free document updates through June 2027. The platform shifts from photocopy sharing to digital…

Crypto

• Clarity Act Odds Drop as Traders Doubt 2026 Law (Bitcoin) Polymarket 'yes' odds fall to 39% on Clarity Act becoming law in 2026, even as Kalshi bettors put 68% chance on a Senate vote before August recess.
• MetaMask code exposed to North Korea-linked contractor for weeks (CryptoSlate) A contractor linked to North Korea accessed MetaMask code for weeks. Consensys halted releases, found no compromise. FBI warns of similar IT worker infiltration tactics.
• BOK Sets September for Live CBDC Transaction Tests (Crypto Economy) South Korea's Project Hangang enters second phase with nine banks, targeting September for live deposit-token transactions. First phase saw 114,880 transactions.
• Tokenized stocks reach record $2.3B market cap as adoption grows (Crypto Briefing) Ondo Finance leads with $955M in onchain equities as the tokenized stock market cap hits $2.3B. Ethereum holds 34% market share. Solana trading volumes surged sixfold in H1 2026.
• Standard Chartered-Backed HKDAP to Launch in HK by Late July (Blockonomi) Anchorpoint, backed by Standard Chartered, will deploy HKDAP stablecoin in Hong Kong by late July. The token is fully backed by HKD reserves and tested on Ethereum mainnet.
• Crypto Market Cap Sheds $304.8B in 2026 Q2; Bitcoin Down 14% (Cointribune) Crypto market cap fell 12.6% to $2.1 trillion, lowest since Sept 2024. Bitcoin dropped 14%, Ethereum 25%. Trading volumes plunged 21% QoQ. Prediction markets surged 48.7% to…
• Vietnam imposes fines up to $7,700 for unlicensed crypto trading (CT) Vietnam fines unlicensed crypto trading up to $7,700, with the regulated market expected to launch in Q3. The country ranked 4th in global adoption.
• Brazil CVM Sets 60-Day Deadline for Tokenization Proposal (CoinDesk) Brazil's CVM launched a 14-department working group to draft tokenized securities rules, with a first proposal due in 60 days. The group will review earlier sandbox results.

Forex / Commodities

• Mediators Propose 10-Day Truce to Revive Iran Deal (Forex Live) A senior Iranian source said mediators have proposed a 10-day halt to strikes. Risk assets rallied and oil extended losses as diplomatic channels remain open.
• Rupee at two-month low as oil prices stay in focus (The Economic Times) Rupee hit 83.52, its lowest since June, as oil importers bought dollars and the greenback firmed. RBI likely intervened. Traders watch 83.60-83.65 zone.
• Defense Metals CEO to Pitch Rare Earth Project at July 22 Virtual Conference (Manilatimes) Defense Metals CEO Mark Tory will present at the Precious Metals & Critical Minerals Virtual Investor Conference on July 22, pitching the company's Wicheeda rare earth project in…
• STNG Q2: Product-Tanker Rates, Fleet Expansion in Focus (Manilatimes) Scorpio Tankers reports Q2 earnings July 30. The 74-vessel fleet, averaging 10.1 years, faces rate pressure from six new MR builds and the wider orderbook.
• Sovereign Gold Bond investors earn up to 44% despite price correction (BL) SGB holders see 34-44% annual returns despite gold's correction. Tax exemption now limited to initial subscribers who hold to maturity. Gold ETFs emerge as alternative.
• Energy Metals Face Short-Term Bearish Pressure (FXEmpire) Copper holds above $6 support, while uranium and lithium break key technical levels, pointing to further downside, analyst says.
• Godrej Agrovet's ₹300 Cr Oil Palm Hub Eyes 30,000 Hectares (BL) Godrej Agrovet opened a ₹300 crore integrated oil palm complex in Telangana, aiming to expand plantation area to 30,000 hectares by 2030 and boost domestic edible oil output.
• GBP/CNY Forecast: Oil and Rate Divergence Push Wedge Breakout (InvestingCube) The pound is gaining against the yuan as the BoE holds rates and oil prices climb above $85. A falling wedge breakout targets 9.4702. UK CPI this week is the next catalyst.

Smart Money

• Rick Larsen (D-WA): SALE ABT
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): PURCHASE APH
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): PURCHASE MCK
• Rick Larsen (D-WA): SALE SPGI
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: TROW (T. Rowe Price Group Inc.), Alpha Score 77/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 77 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 77/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 77 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: BRAI (Braiin Ltd), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 62,766 contracts, 53.1% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 176,279 contracts, 47.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 72,955 contracts, 36.6% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: S&P 500 edges down 0.8% as tech lags; Alpha Scores flag weak sentiment in mega-caps
• Nasdaq: QQQ drops 2.31% as MSFT, NVDA slide; Alpha Scores show weak sentiment across big tech
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin gains 2.6% as Nasdaq drops 2.3%; CFTC prepares crypto oversight
• Crypto: BTC slides 4% alongside gold as QQQ dips just 0.45%; LAB short-squeeze jumps 28%
• Forex: Euro and sterling sink as dollar rally broadens; EUR long squeeze, GBP record short test support

See you tomorrow before the bell.