AlphaScala Daily: ETH tops 1,800, NKE draws $2.17M cluster buy

Good morning.

Crypto leads the tape into the open, with ETH up 3.4% to 1,805 and BTC back over 64,500. The signal tape has a real one this morning: four Nike insiders bought a net $2.17M over the last 30 days, dwarfing the 10-insider, $45K nibble at TSM. Micron, Kinross, and Flywire share the top of the model at 79/100, and Gilbert Cisneros filed purchases in AGX, BOOT, and CDRE. Watch Canada jobs at 8:30, the only high-importance print on the docket. Here's what matters.

Markets

• USD/JPY 161.79 ▼ -0.38% (US Dollar / Japanese Yen)
• XAU/USD 4,110.62 ▼ -0.32% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,804.88 ▲ +3.41% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 64,547.49 ▲ +2.17% (BTC)

Today's calendar

• Canada: Unemployment Rate
• Canada: Employment Change

Deal Flow

M&A

• ISS Backs Equinox Gold-Orla Deal Ahead of July 22 Vote (Manilatimes) ISS and a second proxy advisor recommend Equinox Gold shareholders vote for the share issuance resolution tied to the Orla Mining merger. The special meeting is July 22.

Debt

• Coinbase Legal Chief Grewal Departs; Clarity Act Odds Slip to 46% (UToday) Paul Grewal steps down as Coinbase CLO at end of July, moving to advisory role; Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act passing in 2026 fall to 46% as the bill stalls in the Senate.

Restructuring

• EU demands Meta disable 'addictive' features on Facebook, Instagram (BL) The European Commission accused Meta of breaching the Digital Services Act with addictive design features on Facebook and Instagram, demanding changes to infinite scroll and…

Headline Roundup

Macro

• India now Argentina's 6th largest economic partner, envoy says (BL) Argentina's envoy says India is now its sixth-largest economic partner, with bilateral trade reaching nearly $6 billion in 2025, driven by edible oil and critical minerals.
• 4 quick ways to assess the CBA share price (Raskmedia) Commonwealth Bank trades at 26 times earnings, a 40% premium to peers. Housing slowdown and APRA capital rules are the key tests for that multiple.

Stocks

• Rupee Gains as Oil Slips, Easing Pressure on India's Trade Deficit (Economictimes) The rupee edged up Tuesday as Brent crude fell, cutting India's import costs. The move supports airlines and oil marketing companies. The RBI's intervention could cap gains.
• OpenAI, Google Sold AI Access to China-Linked Units: Report (SA) OpenAI and Google sold AI model access to Singapore units of Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent despite Pentagon blacklist. Compliance risk spreads to Microsoft, Amazon.
• ₹381 crore railway projects target Kavach safety, loco capacity (BL) The two projects cover 680 route km of the Kavach automatic train protection system on Northern Railway and homing facilities for 250 electric locomotives at Raipur.
• HCG Partners Accenture to Personalize Cancer Care with AI (Economictimes) Healthcare Global Enterprises is using AI and patient data to personalize cancer treatment, partnering with Accenture to enhance its AI research capabilities.
• Delta CEO: Higher Airfares Lasting, Profit Goal in Reach (CNBC) Delta CEO Ed Bastian said higher airfares are sustainable; Q3 EPS forecast of $2.00-$2.50 beats estimates. Full-year guidance reaffirmed. Premium sales top main cabin.
• Alamar NULISA at AAIC Quadruples to 140+ Presentations (Financialpost) Alamar's NULISA platform appears in over 140 AAIC presentations, up from about 35 last year. Workshop highlights new eMTBR-Tau and BD-pTau217 assays.
• Abivax’s $920M Cash War Chest Fuels Solo U.S. Launch Plan (CNBC) CEO Marc de Garidel told CNBC the biotech's $920M raise funds a solo U.S. launch for bowel-disease drug obefazimod, with an FDA pre-NDA meeting set for July.
• Musk Flips on Anthropic After $1.25B/Month Compute Deal (Mint) Elon Musk reversed years of criticism, calling Anthropic the 'leader in AI' after SpaceX inked a $1.25B/month compute deal. The U-turn rewrites the AI narrative.

Crypto

• Circle secures U.S. trust bank approval in crypto expansion (CoinDesk) Circle (CRCL) gets OCC approval for a national trust bank, enabling institutional custody and future USDC reserve management under federal oversight.
• Stablecoin Boom Pushes Online Casinos to Rethink Payment Systems (Coinpaper) Visa data shows $10.2 trillion in stablecoin transactions over 12 months, pushing online casinos to modernise cashiers that handle crypto alongside traditional methods.
• Labour MPs Push to Ban Crypto Donations to UK Political Parties (Blockonomi) Labour MPs table five amendments to the Representation of the People Bill barring crypto donations. The push follows scrutiny of Nigel Farage's finances and a £5M gift that…
• HSBC Issues First Blockchain Structured Notes in Hong Kong Private Placement (Blockonomi) HSBC issued its first blockchain-native structured notes in a Hong Kong private placement, testing tokenised settlement and payments for institutional investors.
• HSBC Launches Blockchain Structured Notes in Hong Kong Private Placement (Blockonomi) HSBC issued its first blockchain-based structured notes in Hong Kong via private placement, using Marketnode for tokenisation and payment. The trial tests efficiency gains for…
• Revolut Ties Crypto Exchange to AI Assistants for Trading (Blockonomi) Revolut X users can now trade via natural-language prompts on Claude, Gemini, and other AI assistants. The move follows similar integrations from Gemini and Robinhood.
• Revolut X Lets Traders Use AI Assistants for Crypto Orders (Blockonomi) Revolut's 75M-user crypto exchange connects to AI assistants like Claude and Gemini, allowing plain-language trading and portfolio analysis without coding.
• Circle wins final OCC approval for U.S. national trust bank (Crypto news) Circle's OCC charter places it under direct federal supervision and could eventually back USDC reserves. The bank will first offer custody to Circle and affiliates.

Forex / Commodities

• August Natural Gas Settles at $3.01 After 6% Drop on Bearish Storage (FXEmpire) August natural gas futures fell 6.23% to $3.01 after an EIA storage build exceeded the five-year average and a strengthening El Niño forecast points to a warmer winter.
• Oil and Gas Technical Setup: WTI, Brent, NatGas Key Levels (FXEmpire) WTI defends $73.85 support, Brent holds $78.33 channel floor, NatGas tests EMA cluster. Key levels and trade setups for oil and gas.
• Altius doubles Great Bay Renewables stake to 50% in $390M deal (Financialpost) Altius Minerals lifts Great Bay Renewables stake to 50% in a $390M deal that sees Apollo exit and Northampton become an equal partner. The transaction boosts Altius's exposure to…
• Orogen Royalties Trades on OTCQX, Targets U.S. Investors (Financialpost) Orogen Royalties began trading on OTCQX, joining a market that saw $23.4B in non-U.S. North American securities trading in Q2. The company's portfolio includes the Arthur Gold…
• Tectonic Metals Upgrades to OTCQX After C$92M Financing (Financialpost) The mineral explorer moves to the OTCQX Best Market, giving U.S. investors access to Level 2 quotes. The company is drilling 191 holes at its Flat Gold Project in Alaska.
• Dollar Retreats as Trump Signals Iran Talks, ECB Tightening Bets Rise (Action Forex) The dollar fell after Trump's comment that Iran is open to a deal. Brent crude stabilized above $76, while ECB rate hike bets rise to 90% for September, boosting EUR/USD.
• Dollar Slides on Iran De-Escalation; EURUSD Gains on ECB Tightening Odds (Action Forex) Dollar falls as Trump says Iran seeking deal; Brent above $76. ECB September hike odds at 90% lift EURUSD. Japan minister's call hits USDJPY.
• Dollar Slides After Trump's Iran Statement; ECB Rate Path in Focus (Action Forex) The dollar extends its retreat after Trump says Iran wants a deal. Brent eases, yields dip, and markets price ECB rate hikes more aggressively, lifting EUR/USD. USD/JPY slides on…

Smart Money

• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE AGX
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE BOOT
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): PURCHASE CDRE
• Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA): SALE CBZ
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: MU (Micron Technology Inc.), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: FLYW (Flywire Corp), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: BRAI (Braiin Ltd), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 54,844 contracts, 53.1% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 146,792 contracts, 42.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Swiss Franc (CHF): hedge funds net short 41,094 contracts, 37.8% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Nasdaq: Nasdaq slips 1.6% as AAPL rallies 4.8%, AI chip bets diverge
• Sp500: SPY +0.5% as Nasdaq drops 1.6%; rotation lifts financials, health care
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin adds 3.7% to $62.4K, tracking gold as CLARITY Act slips past July 4 target
• Crypto: BTC slides 4% alongside gold as QQQ dips just 0.45%; LAB short-squeeze jumps 28%
• Forex: Euro and sterling sink as dollar rally broadens; EUR long squeeze, GBP record short test support

Back Monday before the bell.