AlphaScala Weekly: Silver craters 9.7%, oil and ETH dump

Good morning,

The risk-off week didn't spare much. Silver led the wreckage, falling 9.68% to $58.80, with WTI down 8.23% to $70.24, ether off 8.71%, and bitcoin sliding 5.95% under $60,200. The Nasdaq proxy QQQ dropped 4.39% while the Dow's DIA finished a hair green, the only major index to hold the line. Underneath the tape, ten TSM insiders showed up as buyers and Micron topped our model at 81. Here's what mattered.

The Week That Was

The split was metals and energy bleeding while large-cap defensives barely budged. Silver's 9.7% drop and crude's 8.2% slide dragged the commodity complex, and gold's 2.65% pullback to $4,080.91 told you the safety bid wasn't there either. Crypto traded like a high-beta equity, with ETH down 8.71% to $1,578.59 and BTC through $60,200. Growth took the hit in stocks too: QQQ fell 4.39%, SPY 2.06%, while DIA closed up 0.09% and IWM was effectively flat.

The dollar firmed against the commodity currencies, with AUD off 1.53% and NZD down 1.32%, while EUR and GBP held closer to unchanged. That pattern lined up with the broader move out of cyclicals and into cash.

The signal tape leaned the other way. Ten insiders bought TSM over the trailing 30 days, four picked up NKE for a net $2.17M, and three added SPG. Micron led our Alpha Score at 81, ahead of PNC at 80 and Kinross at 79. On the political side, Matthew Van Epps disclosed sales across GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, XOM, and GE.

Markets this week

Indices

• QQQ 705.54 ▼ -4.39% from 737.95
• SPY 729.08 ▼ -2.06% from 744.39
• IWM 297.68 · -0.17% from 298.18
• DIA 517.54 · +0.09% from 517.08

Crypto

• ETH/USD 1,578.59 ▼ -8.71% from 1,729.29
• BTC/USD 60,143.99 ▼ -5.95% from 63,950.61

Commodities

• XAG/USD 58.80 ▼ -9.68% from 65.10
• WTI/USD 70.24 ▼ -8.23% from 76.54
• XAU/USD 4,080.91 ▼ -2.65% from 4,191.78

FX

• AUD/USD 0.6894 ▼ -1.53% from 0.7001
• NZD/USD 0.5638 ▼ -1.32% from 0.5713
• GBP/USD 1.32 ▼ -0.41% from 1.33
• EUR/USD 1.14 ▼ -0.34% from 1.14
• GBP/JPY 213.46 ▼ -0.33% from 214.16
• EUR/JPY 184.23 ▼ -0.26% from 184.71
• USD/CAD 1.42 ▲ +0.22% from 1.42
• USD/CHF 0.8096 · +0.11% from 0.8087

Deal Flow

M&A

• SBI moves to fully acquire Japan crypto exchange Bitbank (Crypto news) SBI Holdings signs deal to fully own Bitbank. No immediate user changes, but the acquisition accelerates Japan's crypto consolidation and expands SBI's card, stablecoin, and…
• G2 Goldfields Gets Court Nod for G Mining Deal, G3 Spin-Out (Manilatimes) Court approval clears the final regulatory step for G2 Goldfields' CAD 1.5 billion merger with G Mining and the spin-out of G3. Closing expected in July.
• Dimensional Fund Advisors Discloses 1.3% Pharos Energy Stake (Manilatimes) Dimensional Fund Advisors disclosed a 1.3% stake in Pharos Energy under UK Takeover Code Rule 8.3. No derivatives or hedging positions were reported. The filing follows elevated…
• Pound edges higher as markets assess UK finance minister outlook (Invezz) Sterling hit a 10-month euro high as traders eyed Andy Burnham's successor bid and the potential choice for finance minister. The appointment will set UK fiscal direction.
• KHC board declares 2.7% semiannual dividend for H1 2026 (Argaam) KHC's board declared a 2.7% cash dividend for H1 2026, its latest semiannual payout. The company has paid dividends since its 2015 merger.
• Man Group Reveals 1.85% DCC Stake Under Irish Takeover Rules (Manilatimes) Man Group's 2.17M share stake in DCC PLC, disclosed under Irish takeover rules, crosses a material threshold and echoes its earlier activist position in AMG Critical Materials.
• Binance Vows EU Stay, Plans New Licence Bid After MiCA Rejection (Reuters) Binance plans a fresh EU licence bid after its MiCA application failed, a senior executive told Reuters. The setback threatens access for millions across the bloc.
• Nyrstar Faces Shareholder Bid for Court-Appointed Administrator (Manilatimes) Shareholders seek a court-appointed manager for Nyrstar, citing governance concerns. The company contests the petition. The Antwerp court will weigh the request after previous…
• Why Canada's Succession Crisis Is a $2 Trillion Opportunity (Betakit) Underrepresented buyers lack the education and capital to acquire profitable SMBs from retiring owners, risking a $300B wealth transfer, a new study finds.
• Man Group Discloses 1%+ AMG Stake Amid Critical Minerals Bid Interest (Manilatimes) Man Group disclosed a 1%+ holding in AMG Critical Materials under UK Takeover Code rules, adding a known institutional holder to the register of the metals group as bid…

IPOs / Listings

• Reliance Rises 3% as Jio Files for Record $4B India IPO (Hindu) Reliance Industries shares jumped 3% after Jio Platforms filed for a $4 billion IPO, India's largest ever. The offering could value Jio at $137 billion.
• Tokenized SpaceX products hit $80M as IPO demand strains supply (Finbold) Tokenized SpaceX shares hit $80.82M market cap as IPO demand overwhelms allocation. Six issuers compete for supply while the underlying stock corrects 32% from its high.
• SpaceX IPO Unlocks Billions, Florida Migration Already Underway (Foxbusiness) SpaceX employees cash out billions from the IPO. Florida brokers say calls have started. OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs in late 2026 could trigger a second wave of millionaire…
• Tokenized Equity Volume Hits $565M Record – Solana Takes 98% (Cryptopolitan) Solana absorbed 97.8% of $565M tokenized equity volume on June 24, driven by the SpaceX IPO and Micron's earnings report. The key test for the sector is whether volume holds on…
• Public listing lets founders keep 75% control while raising capital (BL) NSE chief says listing lets founders keep 75% control while raising capital. A ₹2 crore profit can become ₹40-50 crore valuation. SME platform raised ₹21,700 crore.

Funding Rounds

• Allium Raises $40M to Expand Blockchain Data (Crypto Economy) Allium closed a $40 million Series B led by Amplify Partners, with participation from firms Kleiner Perkins and Theory Ventures. The startup processes and standardizes onchain…

Funds

• Framework Ventures Closes $400M Fund for Crypto and AI Startups (Crypto news) Framework Ventures closed a $400M fourth fund for crypto, AI, robotics, and energy. Half is already deployed. The shift signals a broader trend among crypto VCs expanding beyond…
• Blue Origin Stock Options Worthless as SpaceX Creates Wealth (BI) Three ex-Blue Origin employees say their stock options are worthless. SpaceX workers became millionaires through secondary sales.
• Framework Ventures Raises $400M, Expands Into Frontier Tech (Bitcoin) Crypto-native VC Framework Ventures closes $400M fourth fund, oversubscribed, to deploy into frontier tech including AI and robotics. Also backs energy and blockchain bets.

Headline Roundup

Macro

• Lego Opens 47,000 sqm Innovation Campus to Speed Manufacturing (Retailgazette) Lego's first dedicated global manufacturing innovation centre opens in Billund, housing 1,800 staff to accelerate production processes and shorten time to market.
• Greenspan's Legacy: The Fed Chair Who Fueled Financialization (Mises) Alan Greenspan's death at 100 reignites debate over his role in creating the housing bubble and financialization. Critics say he was the perfect Fed chair for an institution that…
• Greenspan Dies at 100: The Fed Chairman Who Defined Boom and Bust (CNBC) Alan Greenspan, the longest-serving Fed chairman of the modern era, died at 100. His 'irrational exuberance' speech and easy-money policies still echo in today's markets.
• ArcelorMittal Taps AWS to Automate Global Steel Operations (Rediff) ArcelorMittal is moving operational tech to AWS for AI-driven predictive maintenance and quality control, a shift that could reshape how steelmakers adopt cloud and edge computing.
• Older Workers Face an AI-Driven Choice: Retool or Retire (BI) Rising AI adoption pushes older white-collar workers toward early retirement, tightening labor supply. Productivity data and wage inflation will determine the macro impact on…
• RBI Injects ₹1.41 Lakh Cr Via VRR as Liquidity Turns Deficit (BL) The RBI pumped ₹1.41 lakh crore via a 7-day VRR auction after banking liquidity flipped to a ₹19,972 crore deficit on GST outflows. Overnight rates are now above the repo rate,…
• Bajaj Auto Confirms Manufacturing Unaffected by Ransomware Attack (Economictimes) Bajaj Auto said ransomware hit internal systems and its tech subsidiary but manufacturing, sales, and service are running. Shares fell 1.2%.
• RBI's ₹25,000 fraud compensation shifts burden to banks (Mint) From Jan 2027, banks bear burden of proof in digital fraud disputes. Customers can claim up to ₹25,000 compensation for losses under ₹50,000. Prompt reporting required.
• Freight Costs Jump Tenfold for Indian MSME Exporters (Hindu) Container freight from India to West Asia jumped 13x since the war began. Steel, copper, and brass costs are also up. MSME exporters absorb the hit.

Stocks

• SBI Life Child Plan Adds Waiver Feature to Target Parents (BL) SBI Life's Smart Platina Young Achiever child insurance plan includes a premium waiver feature. The product aims to differentiate in a crowded market where customer trust is a key…
• M Angamuthu Takes Additional Charge as Cochin Port Chairperson (BL) M. Angamuthu, Mumbai Port Authority chairperson, assumes additional role at Cochin Port Authority, drawing on broad public-sector logistics and port experience.
• Holley Upgrade: Analyst Turns Bullish After March Neutral Stance (SA) An analyst upgraded Holley (HLLY) to bullish after holding neutral since March. The valuation compressed enough to turn the risk/reward favorable, but the next earnings report…
• Room Rent Caps Can Halve Insurance Payout – Know These 4 Clauses (Mint) A ₹5,000 room-rent cap can slash a ₹2 lakh hospital bill to ₹1.25 lakh of coverage. Co-pay, deductibles, treatment sub-limits – check before admission.
• SK Hynix Seeks $29 Billion in Nasdaq Listing for AI Expansion (CNBC) South Korea's SK Hynix plans to raise $29 billion via Nasdaq ADRs, aiming to expand investor base and fund AI chip capacity. Trading expected July 10.
• Piramal Pharma's 200-Plus Audits Signal Quality Edge (BL) Piramal Pharma Solutions completed over 200 customer audits and won 70+ regulatory approvals last year. The record supports the CDMO's competitive position; digital spend will…
• Karnataka Minister, Milky Mist CEO at MSME Growth Conclave (BL) Karnataka's Dr Sharan Prakash Patil, Milky Mist Dairy's Satish Kumar, and other leaders participated in BusinessLine's MSME Growth Conclave 2026.
• After my divorce, I needed a support system that didn't come from romance. I made new friends, but it took time. (BI) After divorce, I didn't try to make friends at first. I started saying yes to things I would have said no to. Friendship built slowly in ordinary moments.
• Privacy4Cars' DisconnectedCar Targets a $1B Dealer Liability (Prweb) Privacy4Cars' DisconnectedCar severs remote access between a used connected car and its prior owner. Dealers, lenders, and rental companies carry the liability. The sector…
• New Home Sales Miss: 7% Drop to 580K in May (SA) New home sales fell 7% in May to a 580,000 annual rate, missing forecasts. Builders face tight inventory and mortgage rates above 7%.
• Micron's 7% drop after $300M miss: what the shorts saw (BL) Micron missed revenue guidance by $300M, sending shares down 7.4%. Client and mobile inventory adjustments weighed, while HBM demand remains on track for $1B in 2025. The…
• Four TASI Stocks Touch 52-Week Lows on June 24 (Argaam) Four TASI-listed stocks hit 52-week lows on June 24 as the index fell 0.8%. Thimar, Takween, Burgerizzr and KHC joined the list.

Crypto

• CoinGecko bets AI can turn $2.2T data into research edge (Crypto Briefing) CoinGecko launched Gecko AI on April 22, letting premium subscribers query its dataset of over 17,400 coins using natural language. The tool draws on $2.2 trillion in tracked…
• Binance looks for new EU license path after Greece bid fails (Crypto Briefing) Binance is pursuing other ways to get a MiCA license after its application in Greece was turned down, Reuters reported. The exchange remains committed to the EU market despite the…
• MiCA 2.0 Rewards Review: What It Means for Stablecoins (Crypto Daily) EU's MiCA 2.0 consultation reopens stablecoin reward rules until Aug 31. UK activity-based rewards model may shape outcome. Impact on adoption and issuer strategies.
• SEKAU stablecoin launches. Dollar liquidity may already be too far ahead (CryptoSlate) AllUnity's SEKAU gives Sweden a MiCA-compliant stablecoin on five chains. The real test: whether local-currency rails can compete with entrenched dollar liquidity.
• Kraken World Cup Deal: CHZ, LINK in Focus (Crypto Briefing) Kraken's World Cup sponsorship puts Chiliz fan tokens and Chainlink oracles in the spotlight. CHZ tends to spike around tournaments but fade fast. The real test is user…
• Bybit Wraps AI Trading Bots in Segregated Accounts as Broker Race Heats Up (The Currency Analytics) Bybit's AI Subaccount locks bot activity in a segregated account, separate from client funds. The move targets MENA traders as brokers race to wire AI agents into live accounts.
• Securitize Sues tZERO as Tokenization Patent War Escalates (Tokenpost) Securitize sues tZERO over patent infringement claims, escalating a dispute that could reshape tokenized asset infrastructure and impact Wall Street partners like BlackRock and…
• South Korea Tracks Crypto for Debt Relief Assessments (Blockonomi) From January, crypto holdings count toward debt relief eligibility. Forgiveness rates drop to 30% baseline for higher-income applicants. Credit info law change takes effect Aug 13…
• Spain CNMV Rules Out MiCA Licence Extensions for Crypto Firms (Reuters) Spain's market watchdog will not extend the deadline for crypto firms to secure MiCA licences, chair Carlos San Basilio said. Binance and other major platforms face a hard stop.
• Altcoin Market Cap Breaches $900B Twice in 24 Hours (Bitcoin) The altcoin market cap fell below $900 billion twice in 24 hours, hitting $872 billion each time. Ethereum led the decline, dropping to a new year-to-date low of $1,531.
• Poland arrests SIM-swap gang linked to crypto theft (Crypto Briefing) FBI helped Polish police arrest four suspects in a SIM-swap ring that stole tens of millions of zloty in crypto. The method exploits SMS-based 2FA, a vulnerability many holders…
• SEC-South Korea talks signal push for cross-border crypto rules (Crypto Briefing) The SEC's crypto task force met with South Korean officials on June 23, discussing stablecoin frameworks and tokenized securities. The meeting memorandum documents formal…

Forex / Commodities

• NovaGold (NG) Upgrade: Analyst Bets on Donlin Gold's Path (SA) An analyst upgraded NovaGold to Buy, betting the Donlin Gold project's 39 million ounce resource will overcome permitting and capital hurdles. The upside hinges on Barrick's…
• Gold and Silver Lose Early 2026 Gains as Dollar Resurges (SA) Gold fell 3.2% and silver 5.1% in two sessions as a stronger dollar and rising real yields reversed January's rally. The payrolls report Friday will decide whether the selloff…
• Hormuz traffic climbs to 36 vessels, still far below pre-war levels (Forex Live) Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to 36 crossings, up from single digits at the conflict's peak but still far below the 130-140 pre-war baseline.
• Iran Oil Waiver Hits Brent Hard as Sanctions Reverse (SA) The Trump administration issued a temporary license allowing Iran to sell energy exports through August 21. Brent crude traded at $77 as the waiver reverses the sanctions pressure…
• Starmer Exit Talk and Iran Talks Reshape FX Risk (FXEmpire) GBP/USD nears YTD lows as Starmer exit talk mounts, while Canadian CPI data could trigger a dovish repricing of BoC rate expectations and weigh on the CAD.
• BIS Flags Rising Risks From Debt, AI Boom and Fragilities (Reuters) The BIS annual report warns that high public debt, the AI boom's uncertain path and hidden financial fragilities are compounding global risks for policymakers.
• Cement Margins Squeezed by Cost Jump and Monsoon Slowdown (BL) All-India cement prices fell ₹3-5/bag to ₹356 as monsoon weakens demand. Diesel hike adds to ₹350-400/tonne cost pressure that will compress margins through Q2, analysts say. A…
• A quick way to value the BHP share price (Raskmedia) BHP shares are up 28.91% year to date. The Alpha Score of 66 (Moderate) signals balanced risk-reward amid China demand exposure. Track changes on the BHP stock page.
• Albemarle's 23% Post-SOTU Slide Tests Lithium Demand Thesis (Insidermonkey) Albemarle shares fell 23.7% after the State of the Union, testing analyst price targets. Earnings in August will show whether realized lithium prices held up.
• EQT's Data-Center Gas Thesis Meets a Moody's Upgrade (Insidermonkey) Moody's upgraded EQT's outlook to Positive on May 30, citing $8 billion in debt reduction. The data-center gas thesis is intact. The stock has not moved on it yet.
• Valuing ALL and STO: A straightforward earnings-based approach (Raskmedia) Compare forward P/E for Aristocrat (ALL) and EV/EBITDA for Santos (STO) against historical averages. The Barossa project and margin trends provide catalysts. Half-year results in…
• Franklin Mutual Quest Fund Lags on Energy, AI Rotation in Q1 (SA) Franklin Mutual Quest Fund trailed the Russell 1000 Value Index in Q1 as energy stocks fell on OPEC+ uncertainty and AI-linked names rotated lower. Managers said the pain was…

Smart Money

• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE GOOGL
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE AMZN
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE AAPL
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE XOM
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE GE
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE GEV
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)
• Top insider buying: TTD: insiders net +$143.45M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyers
• Top insider buying: CPNG: insiders net +$136.56M bought (90d), 1 distinct buyers
• Top insider buying: GME: insiders net +$21.56M bought (90d), 3 distinct buyers

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: MU (Micron Technology Inc.), Alpha Score 81/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 81 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: PNC (PNC Financial Services Group Inc.), Alpha Score 80/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 80 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: AKTS (Aktis Oncology, Inc.), Alpha Score 78/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 78 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
• COT extreme: New Zealand Dollar (NZD): hedge funds net short 54,844 contracts, 53.1% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 146,792 contracts, 42.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Swiss Franc (CHF): hedge funds net short 41,094 contracts, 37.8% of open interest

Back tomorrow before the bell.