AlphaScala Daily: Core PCE at 8:30, NKE cluster buy in view

Good morning.

Three US prints hit at 8:30 a.m. ET, with Core PCE the one that moves the rates conversation; final GDP and jobless claims round out the morning. Nike drew the loudest signal on yesterday's tape, four insiders buying for a net $2.17M over 90 days, while TSM logged a ten-insider cluster despite a thin $45K net. Micron and Kinross sit near the top of the model at 79, with Grupo Cibest leading at 83. Van Epps dumped GOOGL, AMZN, and AAPL on the political tape. Here's what matters.

Markets

• XAU/USD 3,981.91 ▼ -0.48% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,631.69 ▲ +0.55% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 61,115.62 ▲ +0.22% (BTC)

Today's calendar

• United States: Final GDP q/q
• United States: Core PCE Price Index m/m
• United States: Unemployment Claims

Deal Flow

M&A

• Pound edges higher as markets assess UK finance minister outlook (Invezz) Sterling hit a 10-month euro high as traders eyed Andy Burnham's successor bid and the potential choice for finance minister. The appointment will set UK fiscal direction.
• Binance Vows EU Stay, Plans New Licence Bid After MiCA Rejection (Reuters) Binance plans a fresh EU licence bid after its MiCA application failed, a senior executive told Reuters. The setback threatens access for millions across the bloc.
• Dimensional Fund Advisors Discloses 1.3% Pharos Energy Stake (Manilatimes) Dimensional Fund Advisors disclosed a 1.3% stake in Pharos Energy under UK Takeover Code Rule 8.3. No derivatives or hedging positions were reported. The filing follows elevated…
• SBI Holdings buys Bitbank for $289M, expanding Japan crypto custody (Crypto Briefing) SBI Holdings will acquire Bitbank for ¥46.7B ($289M) in a staggered deal. Combined custody assets stand at ¥1.1T across 2.92M accounts. The acquisition follows the Bitpoint Japan…
• SBI moves to fully acquire Japan crypto exchange Bitbank (Crypto news) SBI Holdings signs deal to fully own Bitbank. No immediate user changes, but the acquisition accelerates Japan's crypto consolidation and expands SBI's card, stablecoin, and…
• WISeKey, SEALSQ set up Quantisimo SPV for $575M merger deal (WKEY:NASDAQ) (SA) WISeKey and SEALSQ back Quantisimo SPV for $575M merger with GigCapital8, targeting a Nasdaq quantum computing platform that aims to scale to $2B.

Headline Roundup

Macro

• Greenspan's Legacy: The Fed Chair Who Fueled Financialization (Mises) Alan Greenspan's death at 100 reignites debate over his role in creating the housing bubble and financialization. Critics say he was the perfect Fed chair for an institution that…
• RBI's ₹25,000 fraud compensation shifts burden to banks (Mint) From Jan 2027, banks bear burden of proof in digital fraud disputes. Customers can claim up to ₹25,000 compensation for losses under ₹50,000. Prompt reporting required.
• Lego Opens 47,000 sqm Innovation Campus to Speed Manufacturing (Retailgazette) Lego's first dedicated global manufacturing innovation centre opens in Billund, housing 1,800 staff to accelerate production processes and shorten time to market.

Stocks

• Room Rent Caps Can Halve Insurance Payout – Know These 4 Clauses (Mint) A ₹5,000 room-rent cap can slash a ₹2 lakh hospital bill to ₹1.25 lakh of coverage. Co-pay, deductibles, treatment sub-limits – check before admission.
• SK Hynix Seeks $29 Billion in Nasdaq Listing for AI Expansion (CNBC) South Korea's SK Hynix plans to raise $29 billion via Nasdaq ADRs, aiming to expand investor base and fund AI chip capacity. Trading expected July 10.
• Zoox Targets 100 Robotaxis a Week After Design Upgrade (BI) Zoox targets 100 robotaxis a week after a design upgrade. The production ramp would push Amazon's autonomous unit toward commercial scale, pending regulatory approvals.
• New Home Sales Miss: 7% Drop to 580K in May (SA) New home sales fell 7% in May to a 580,000 annual rate, missing forecasts. Builders face tight inventory and mortgage rates above 7%.
• Micron's 7% drop after $300M miss: what the shorts saw (BL) Micron missed revenue guidance by $300M, sending shares down 7.4%. Client and mobile inventory adjustments weighed, while HBM demand remains on track for $1B in 2025. The…
• Four TASI Stocks Touch 52-Week Lows on June 24 (Argaam) Four TASI-listed stocks hit 52-week lows on June 24 as the index fell 0.8%. Thimar, Takween, Burgerizzr and KHC joined the list.
• Blue Owl Capital's 63% Drop: What the Market Mispriced (SA) Blue Owl shares are down 63% from their high. Jussi Askola argues the market has overcorrected. AUM hit $200B, dividends are covered, and lock-ups prevent redemptions.
• Holley Upgrade: Analyst Turns Bullish After March Neutral Stance (SA) An analyst upgraded Holley (HLLY) to bullish after holding neutral since March. The valuation compressed enough to turn the risk/reward favorable, but the next earnings report…

Crypto

• CoinGecko bets AI can turn $2.2T data into research edge (Crypto Briefing) CoinGecko launched Gecko AI on April 22, letting premium subscribers query its dataset of over 17,400 coins using natural language. The tool draws on $2.2 trillion in tracked…
• Binance looks for new EU license path after Greece bid fails (Crypto Briefing) Binance is pursuing other ways to get a MiCA license after its application in Greece was turned down, Reuters reported. The exchange remains committed to the EU market despite the…
• Bybit Wraps AI Trading Bots in Segregated Accounts as Broker Race Heats Up (The Currency Analytics) Bybit's AI Subaccount locks bot activity in a segregated account, separate from client funds. The move targets MENA traders as brokers race to wire AI agents into live accounts.
• SEC-South Korea talks signal push for cross-border crypto rules (Crypto Briefing) The SEC's crypto task force met with South Korean officials on June 23, discussing stablecoin frameworks and tokenized securities. The meeting memorandum documents formal…
• Poland arrests SIM-swap gang linked to crypto theft (Crypto Briefing) FBI helped Polish police arrest four suspects in a SIM-swap ring that stole tens of millions of zloty in crypto. The method exploits SMS-based 2FA, a vulnerability many holders…
• DOJ Rejects Police Groups' CLARITY Act Concerns as Baseless (The Currency Analytics) The DOJ says the CLARITY Act does not create enforcement loopholes. Four law enforcement groups disagree. The Blockchain Association backs the department.
• Bitcoin is having a tough year. Traders are betting it's going to get worse (CNBC) Bitcoin futures hit $58,995, lowest since Oct 2024. Options traders pile into puts, with IBIT put volume more than double calls. 48% chance of another 10% drop by end of July.
• Animoca Backs AllScale for Stablecoin and AI Agent Payments (Blockonomi) Animoca Brands invested an undisclosed amount in stablecoin platform AllScale for autonomous agent payments. Gives AllScale access to 600 portfolio firms.

Forex / Commodities

• Hormuz traffic climbs to 36 vessels, still far below pre-war levels (Forex Live) Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to 36 crossings, up from single digits at the conflict's peak but still far below the 130-140 pre-war baseline.
• Pound Set for Worst Month Since July After Starmer Quits (Reuters) Sterling is on pace for its worst month against the dollar since July after PM Starmer's resignation added political uncertainty to fragile UK outlook.
• Crude Oil Tests 68.00 Support After Erasing War-Time Gains (Orbex) Crude erased all war-time gains to settle near 68.00. The 67.00-68.00 zone has held before, but inventories are building and OPEC+ discipline is in question. A bounce needs a…
• Rupee Edges Higher as Oil Slide, Foreign Inflows Offset Dollar Strength (The Economic Times) Rupee closes at 83.47, up from 83.52, as Brent crude drops 1.5% and foreign inflows hit $2.5 billion in June. RBI caps 83.50 with spot intervention.
• Russell 2000 Breakout: 10 Growth Stocks Riding the Rotation (Insidermonkey) The Russell 2000 hit 3000 as money rotates from Mag 7. These 10 growth stocks with 20%+ EPS growth are the beneficiaries. Here's what to watch.
• Brent crude extends losses, falls below $73 on supply recovery hopes (Argaam) Brent crude fell below $73 a barrel as traders bet on easing Middle East supply disruptions. The move extends a week-long slide driven by demand concerns and a stronger dollar.

Smart Money

• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE GOOGL
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE AMZN
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE AAPL
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE XOM
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: CIB (Grupo Cibest S.A.), Alpha Score 83/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 83 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: MU (Micron Technology Inc.), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Swiss Franc (CHF): hedge funds net short 36,665 contracts, 31.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 119,999 contracts, 31.3% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 63,801 contracts, 29.8% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: SPY slips 1.07% as defensives fade; NVDA, V hold moderate Alpha Scores
• Nasdaq: Nasdaq 100 dips 0.45% but outperforms; NVDA gains 2.95% on AI chip demand
• Crypto: BTC slides 4% alongside gold as QQQ dips just 0.45%; LAB short-squeeze jumps 28%
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin slides 4% as tax bill stalls; risk-off tone hits gold, too
• Gold: Gold holds near $4,300 as equities slide 2.8%; Emkay targets $5,200 on central bank bid

See you tomorrow before the bell.