AlphaScala Daily: Crypto cracks, NKE insiders buy $2.17M

Good morning.

The risk tape rolled over overnight, with ETH down 4.1% to 1,659 and BTC off 2.5% to 62,353. Gold slipped 1.8% to 4,115, so the usual hedge wasn't much of one. On the signal side, four Nike insiders combined for a $2.17M net buy over the past month, and gold names KGC and HBM both sit near the top of the model at 79. Van Epps, meanwhile, was a seller across the megacaps, dumping GOOGL, AMZN, and Apple. Let's dive in.

Markets

• EUR/USD 1.14 ▼ -0.36% (EUR)
• GBP/USD 1.32 ▼ -0.25% (GBP)
• XAU/USD 4,114.99 ▼ -1.83% (Gold)
• ETH/USD 1,658.9 ▼ -4.07% (ETH)
• BTC/USD 62,352.82 ▼ -2.50% (BTC)

Deal Flow

M&A

• G2 Goldfields Gets Court Nod for G Mining Deal, G3 Spin-Out (Manilatimes) Court approval clears the final regulatory step for G2 Goldfields' CAD 1.5 billion merger with G Mining and the spin-out of G3. Closing expected in July.
• KHC board declares 2.7% semiannual dividend for H1 2026 (Argaam) KHC's board declared a 2.7% cash dividend for H1 2026, its latest semiannual payout. The company has paid dividends since its 2015 merger.
• Veeva Buys Copli to Speed Pharma Marketing Reviews (SA) Veeva Systems acquired Copli and launched Veeva Falcon MLR, an AI tool that automates medical, legal and regulatory review for pharma marketing materials.

IPOs / Listings

• SpaceX IPO Unlocks Billions, Florida Migration Already Underway (Foxbusiness) SpaceX employees cash out billions from the IPO. Florida brokers say calls have started. OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs in late 2026 could trigger a second wave of millionaire…
• Reliance Rises 3% as Jio Files for Record $4B India IPO (Hindu) Reliance Industries shares jumped 3% after Jio Platforms filed for a $4 billion IPO, India's largest ever. The offering could value Jio at $137 billion.
• Tokenized SpaceX products hit $80M as IPO demand strains supply (Finbold) Tokenized SpaceX shares hit $80.82M market cap as IPO demand overwhelms allocation. Six issuers compete for supply while the underlying stock corrects 32% from its high.

Funding Rounds

• Probook Raises $40M From A16z, Sequoia to Fix Home Service Dispatch (Fortune) Probook raised $34M Series A from A16z and $6M seed from Sequoia. The AI operating system targets dispatch, the scheduling brain of HVAC and plumbing shops.

Headline Roundup

Macro

• Greenspan Dies at 100: The Fed Chairman Who Defined Boom and Bust (CNBC) Alan Greenspan, the longest-serving Fed chairman of the modern era, died at 100. His 'irrational exuberance' speech and easy-money policies still echo in today's markets.
• ArcelorMittal Taps AWS to Automate Global Steel Operations (Rediff) ArcelorMittal is moving operational tech to AWS for AI-driven predictive maintenance and quality control, a shift that could reshape how steelmakers adopt cloud and edge computing.
• Older Workers Face an AI-Driven Choice: Retool or Retire (BI) Rising AI adoption pushes older white-collar workers toward early retirement, tightening labor supply. Productivity data and wage inflation will determine the macro impact on…

Stocks

• SBI Life Child Plan Adds Waiver Feature to Target Parents (BL) SBI Life's Smart Platina Young Achiever child insurance plan includes a premium waiver feature. The product aims to differentiate in a crowded market where customer trust is a key…
• Piramal Pharma's 200-Plus Audits Signal Quality Edge (BL) Piramal Pharma Solutions completed over 200 customer audits and won 70+ regulatory approvals last year. The record supports the CDMO's competitive position; digital spend will…
• M Angamuthu Takes Additional Charge as Cochin Port Chairperson (BL) M. Angamuthu, Mumbai Port Authority chairperson, assumes additional role at Cochin Port Authority, drawing on broad public-sector logistics and port experience.
• Oil Futures Slide as US, Iran Agree to 60-Day Peace Roadmap (SA) WTI fell 2.3% to $78.15 after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a 60-day peace roadmap. The deal removes a $3-$5 risk premium but includes a 30-day review clause that could snap…
• Saudi Healthcare Coverage Hits 97.5%, Bed Capacity Up 18% (Argaam) Saudi healthcare coverage hit 97.5% in 2025, up from 94% in 2020. Bed capacity rose 18% to 78,000. The physician ratio improved to 2.8 per 1,000 residents.
• Verus Approved for Maui Fire Settlement Fund Role (Prweb) Verus Claims Services won court approval to administer Sub-Qualified Settlement Funds for individual plaintiffs in the coordinated Maui fire litigation, handling distribution and…
• Meren Energy: A Volatile OTC Stock That One Analyst Calls a Steal (SA) A Seeking Alpha analyst calls Meren Energy a bargain, citing extreme volatility as a buying opportunity. The OTC stock carries liquidity and disclosure risks that traders should…
• 8th Pay Commission's Ratio Target: 1:8 from 1:13.9 (Economictimes) FNPO has proposed a 1:8 pay ratio for the 8th Pay Commission, down from 1:13.9 under the 7th. The move would narrow the widest gap since the 4th Commission.

Crypto

• SEKAU stablecoin launches. Dollar liquidity may already be too far ahead (CryptoSlate) AllUnity's SEKAU gives Sweden a MiCA-compliant stablecoin on five chains. The real test: whether local-currency rails can compete with entrenched dollar liquidity.
• Securitize Sues tZERO as Tokenization Patent War Escalates (Tokenpost) Securitize sues tZERO over patent infringement claims, escalating a dispute that could reshape tokenized asset infrastructure and impact Wall Street partners like BlackRock and…
• ECB Sets 2029 Digital Euro Target as Stablecoin Threat Grows (Crypto Briefing) The ECB is advancing toward a digital euro launch by 2029, with pilot testing as early as 2027. Officials say the goal is to counter private stablecoins and prevent 'digital…
• Carstens says stablecoins can coexist with fiat under global rules (CT) Former BIS chief Agustín Carstens now says stablecoins can coexist with fiat under global rules. The shift signals regulatory risk may be turning nuanced for USDT and USDC.
• SBI Holdings debuts trust-backed yen stablecoin JPYSC this week (Crypto Briefing) Japan's top financial group launches JPYSC, a trust-based yen stablecoin with no domestic remittance cap. Exchange listings will decide whether it becomes a global settlement tool…
• Digital Euro Clears EU Hurdle, Targets Visa-Mastercard Grip (Blockonomi) EU lawmakers approved draft rules for the digital euro, targeting Visa and Mastercard dominance. Banks oppose the plan, citing 18 billion euros in costs.
• CLARITY Act Senate vote touches every dollar stablecoin (Crypto news) The CLARITY Act Senate vote before August recess will reshape global crypto rules through market access and dollar stablecoins. Exchanges, token teams, and developers face new…
• CLARITY Act Faces July Senate Vote Window as House Sets Hearings (Bitcoin) House Financial Services schedules July 14 Fed hearing and July 17 CLARITY Act session. Lummis targets Senate floor vote before August recess as bill needs 60 votes.

Forex / Commodities

• Iran Oil Waiver Hits Brent Hard as Sanctions Reverse (SA) The Trump administration issued a temporary license allowing Iran to sell energy exports through August 21. Brent crude traded at $77 as the waiver reverses the sanctions pressure…
• Crude Oil Targets Pre-War Level 68 After Ceasefire Holds (Orbex) Crude dropped after retesting 79.20 resistance. The Iran-US ceasefire removes supply disruption risk, pushing crude toward the pre-war zone near 68.00. Here's the technical setup.
• TomaGold Starts AMT Survey at Berrigan Mine Project in Quebec (Financialpost) TomaGold starts an AMT survey at its Berrigan Mine project in Quebec, targeting deep conductive structures and massive sulphide zones after recent drilling hits.
• NGDC Dividend Approved at SAR 0.6 Per Share for 2025 (Argaam) Natural Gas Distribution Co. shareholders approved a 6% cash dividend (SAR 0.6/share) for 2025, cementing the stock's appeal for yield seekers in the Saudi gas distribution sector.
• Gemfields AGM: 11 Resolutions Up for Vote, Board Backs All (SA) Gemfields held its AGM June 23. Shareholders voted on 11 resolutions, including 2 special resolutions requiring 75% approval. The board backed all.
• Talisker Hits 85 g/t Gold at Bralorne, Extends Mustang Veins (Manilatimes) Talisker Resources intersected 85 g/t gold over 0.5 metres at its Bralorne project. The 20-hole batch extends Mustang Mine veins as underground drilling ramps up.
• Lithium Ionic Taps Ex-Vale Counsel Torres to Push Bandeira Toward Build (Manilatimes) Lithium Ionic appointed Clovis Torres, Vale's former general counsel and a Petrobras board member, to its board. The hire signals the Bandeira lithium project is moving toward…
• Skyharbour, Orano Plan Summer Uranium Drill Program at Preston Lake (Manilatimes) Orano Canada funds AGG survey and 3,500-metre diamond drilling at Skyharbour's Preston Lake project in the Athabasca Basin. Drilling starts July.

Smart Money

• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE GOOGL
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE AMZN
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE AAPL
• Matthew Robert Van Epps (TN): SALE XOM
• Insider cluster: TSM: 10 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $45K (90d)
• Insider cluster: NKE: 4 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $2.17M (90d)
• Insider cluster: SPG: 3 insiders bought in last 30 days, net $139K (90d)

On the Radar

• Alpha Score top: CIB (Grupo Cibest S.A.), Alpha Score 83/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 83 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, strong quality, strong sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score top: HBM (Hudbay Minerals Inc.), Alpha Score 79/100, top of AlphaScala model. Alpha Score of 79 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
• Alpha Score bottom: BJGPY (Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd./ADR), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• Alpha Score bottom: AZULQ (AZUL SA), Alpha Score 0/100, bottom of AlphaScala model
• COT extreme: Swiss Franc (CHF): hedge funds net short 36,665 contracts, 31.8% of open interest
• COT extreme: Canadian Dollar (CAD): hedge funds net short 119,999 contracts, 31.3% of open interest
• COT extreme: Mexican Peso (MXN): hedge funds net long 63,801 contracts, 29.8% of open interest

This Week's Briefings

• Sp500: SPY slips 1.07% as defensives fade; NVDA, V hold moderate Alpha Scores
• Nasdaq: Nasdaq 100 dips 0.45% but outperforms; NVDA gains 2.95% on AI chip demand
• Crypto: BTC slides 4% alongside gold as QQQ dips just 0.45%; LAB short-squeeze jumps 28%
• Bitcoin: Bitcoin slides 4% as tax bill stalls; risk-off tone hits gold, too
• Gold: Gold holds near $4,300 as equities slide 2.8%; Emkay targets $5,200 on central bank bid

See you tomorrow before the bell.