WTI Crude Oil Rejects 105.00 Resistance – Next Target 95.00

WTI crude oil reversed from the resistance zone near 105.00, a level that has capped price since early April, and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal stopped the earlier impulse waves iii and (3). Given the strength of that resistance, the market can expect a fall to the next support at 95.00, the low of the previous correction ii.

105.00 Halts Wave (3) Momentum

The rejection at 105.00 carries structural weight. Each prior test from early April produced a sharp retreat. This time the confluence with the upper Bollinger Band added an overbought signal. The bearish reaction interrupted the latest impulsive advance, which had built on wave (3) momentum. In Elliott wave terms, that stall leaves the count incomplete to the downside. A break below the wave iv low would confirm the corrective nature of the move.

The simple read is straightforward: price rejected a major resistance and should target the prior correction low at 95.00. A trader, however, needs confirmation before acting. The first confirmation is a daily close below 102.00, the low of the recent consolidation. A break there suggests sellers are absorbing bids and the reversal is more than a one-day pause. The upper Bollinger Band has started to flatten, indicating that the prior uptrend momentum is fading.

Confirmation Trigger at 102.00

Without that close below 102.00, the move remains a potential false breakout. That scenario traps late short sellers when price reclaims 105.00. A reclaim of 105.00 would invalidate the wave count and force stop-losses on any short position. The risk of a fakeout is highest at a well-defined level like this, where liquidity clusters and stops rest on both sides.

The measured target from the wave structure is 95.00. That level also sits near the March lows, creating a zone of confluence. If price breaks below 100.00 psychological support with increasing volume, the path to 95.00 becomes the high-probability scenario. A failure to break 100.00 means the selloff is shallow and the range may persist.

Risk Management for the Setup

A short bias requires a defined stop. Placing a stop above 105.10 leaves room above the resistance level. Using the position size calculator helps determine lot size based on that distance. Alternatively, a stop above the recent high near 106.00 provides more buffer but reduces the risk-reward ratio. Checking the weekly COT data can reveal whether speculative positioning aligns with the technical setup.

Next Decision Point

The coming sessions decide whether this reversal is valid. The daily candle that produces a close below 102.00 acts as the trigger for a short bias targeting 95.00. A close above 105.00 resets the outlook to neutral or bullish. Between those levels, the market is in a judgment zone where patience beats early entry.

WTI crude oil is now at a technical hinge. The setup is clean. The confirmation rule is simple: let the market show its hand below 102.00 before committing to the downside.