Why Bill Miller Is Betting on Bloomin' Brands and Crescent Energy

The 2026 market landscape has shifted decisively toward value, leaving high-growth cohorts struggling to maintain momentum. While the Russell 1000 Value Index has posted an 8% return year to date, the growth counterpart remains flat. This divergence is even more pronounced in smaller capitalizations, where the Russell 2000 Value Index has surged 12%, outpacing the 8% gain seen in the Russell 2000 Growth Index. For investors navigating this rotation, the recent portfolio adjustments by Miller Value Partners offer a case study in deep-value positioning.

The Deep Value Framework in 2026

Miller Value Partners, currently led by Bill Miller IV with the legendary Bill Miller serving as an advisor, has centered its recent strategy on identifying assets undergoing structural transformations. The firm's approach relies on the premise that depressed share prices often reflect temporary operational headwinds or market overreactions to cyclical downturns. In the first quarter, the firm initiated positions in Bloomin' Brands (NASDAQ: BLMN) and Crescent Energy (NYSE: CRGY), two companies that represent distinct manifestations of the deep-value thesis.

Bloomin' Brands: The Turnaround Play

Bloomin' Brands, the parent company of Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba's, has faced a difficult multi-year stretch characterized by an average annualized return of -28% over the past five years. Trading at approximately $6.00 per share, the stock is currently priced at roughly 6 times forward earnings and sits 80% below its historical peak. The investment case here is predicated on a multi-pronged turnaround plan initiated by activist investor Starboard Value, which holds a 9% stake in the company.

Management is currently focused on balance sheet optimization, technology integration, and operational streamlining. Miller Value Partners acknowledges the immediate risks, noting that adverse weather patterns and rising beef costs continue to pressure revenue and margins. However, the firm projects that successful execution of the turnaround could expand adjusted EBITDA from the current $270 million to $500 million. For the value-oriented investor, the thesis rests on the belief that these operational improvements will eventually lead to a significant re-rating of the stock, potentially yielding multiples of the current share price.

Crescent Energy: Capitalizing on Asset Efficiency

Unlike the distressed turnaround narrative at Bloomin' Brands, Crescent Energy presents a case of operational efficiency within the energy sector. Despite a 61% year-to-date surge in its share price, the stock remains attractively valued at 8 times forward earnings. The company's recent performance has been bolstered by rising commodity prices, but the firm's interest is rooted in the strategic acquisition of Vital Energy.

This acquisition serves as a mechanism for growth, providing Crescent with a foothold in the Permian Basin. Miller Value Partners highlights management's track record of acquiring discounted assets and subsequently driving down development costs while enhancing well productivity. By removing excess costs from the acquired operations, Crescent is positioned to improve its margins even if commodity prices stabilize. This strategy contrasts with the broader tech-heavy market, where valuation multiples are often tied to speculative growth rather than tangible asset-level improvements.

Sector Read-Through and Risk Assessment

For those evaluating these positions, the distinction between a turnaround play and an operational efficiency play is critical. Bloomin' Brands requires a successful execution of a complex internal restructuring, making it sensitive to consumer spending and commodity input costs. Conversely, Crescent Energy is more tethered to the broader energy cycle and the company's ability to integrate its recent acquisitions effectively.

While the broader market remains fixated on AI-driven growth, as seen in the performance of NVIDIA Corporation (Alpha Score 67/100, Moderate) and Intel Corporation (Alpha Score 54/100, Mixed), the Miller approach emphasizes the potential for alpha generation in overlooked sectors. Investors should monitor whether the operational improvements at Bloomin' Brands translate into tangible margin expansion in the coming quarters, as this would serve as the primary confirmation of the turnaround thesis. For Crescent Energy, the key metric remains the company's ability to maintain well productivity and cost discipline in the Permian Basin as it integrates its expanded portfolio. Understanding these specific catalysts is essential for anyone looking to replicate or analyze the firm's deep-value strategy in the current stock market analysis environment.